SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

When the Patriots run – Edge: Patriots

The Patriots running game hasn’t been in gear for several weeks, but the Colts run defense has struggled for much of the season. Indy ranks 27th in the league, allowing an average of 142.6 rushing yards per game, and 18th at 4.4 yards per carry. Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t getting many holes to run through, but Antonio Gibson has shown some flashes of production. He’s taken advantage of some lighter boxes in passing situations, particularly in Miami when he finished with 31 yards on six carries. The offensive line will need to do a better job of creating space, and despite the Colts struggles they do have some quality players up front. That starts with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart on the inside. That tandem will be tough on Ben Brown, Michael Jordan and Mike Onwenu and won’t be easy for Stevenson to navigate. Buckner and Stewart protect middle linebacker Zaire Franklin well, and the veteran once again is piling up the tackles for the Colts defense. If the Patriots can have success early and jump out to the lead, Stevenson and Gibson should be able to rack up some yards on Indy’s front seven. But that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks, and Stevenson has been held in check as a result.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Patriots

Drake Maye is coming off the worst game of his rookie season in Miami. Maye was sacked four times, turned the ball over twice and was blanked for three quarters before firing a late touchdown pass. That came on the heels of his best performance to date in the loss to the Rams a week earlier. Like most rookies, Maye is going through some bouts of inconsistency as he deals with the rigors of NFL life. He’ll need some added protection against a Colts defense that can put heat on the passer. Indy has 28 sacks this season, led by 5.5 from Kwity Paye and 4.5 from Buckner. Buckner is the type of interior pocket disruptor that has given the Patriots trouble over the years and Maye will need to do a better job of handling the traffic around him. If given the time, Maye should be able to find DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry against a struggling Colts secondary. Corners Kenny Moore, Samuel Womack and Jaylon Jones combined for five picks but otherwise rank near the bottom of the league. Indy sits 27th against the pass, allowing 233.3 yards per game through the air, and 23rd at 7.1 yards per pass play. Maye has shown the ability to carve up a secondary when given time, so protection will be key in this one.

When the Colts run – Edge: Colts

Jonathan Taylor remains one of the most dangerous runners in the league, and despite some recent struggles he’s still getting the job done in Indy. Taylor leads the Colts ground game with 708 yards on 161 carries, good for a solid 4.4-yard average with five touchdowns. He’s a tough, between-the-tackles runner who possesses the speed to deliver the home run ball as well. The Patriots run defense has stabilized in recent weeks after several games where it struggled in that department. Miami averaged just 2.7 yards per carry last week after rushing for 193 yards in the teams’ first meeting back in Week 5. But New England still ranks 18th in run defense, allowing 123 yards per game on the ground. That number improves slightly to 12th at 4.3 yards per carry, but the Colts also like to incorporate quarterback Anthony Richardson into the mix. Richardson averages 5.5 yards per carry and has been used on designed runs more frequently since returning to the starting lineup two weeks ago in the win over the Jets. The Patriots have used Brenden Schooler as a spy on a handful of snaps and it’s possible that DeMarcus Covington could go that route again, particularly given the injury problems the Colts are suffering through along the offensive line. Expect the Colts to lean on Taylor early in an effort to take some pressure off their young quarterback.

When the Colts pass – Edge: Patriots

Richardson is still very much a work in progress. At times his abundant skills are on display with impressive downfield throws that result in a variety of big plays for the Colts. But he struggles with consistency and his efficiency suffers as a result. Richardson’s most recent outing came against Detroit when he completed just 11 of 28 passes but managed to throw for 172 yards. He completes just 47.1 percent of his passes for the season but can turn in a number of big plays when given the opportunity. The Colts have a solid trio of receivers, featuring Josh Downs (53 catches, 594 yards, 4 TDs), Michael Pittman (41-508-2) and Alec Pierce (27-629-4), and the latter two can create problems with their size at 6-4 and 6-3, respectively. Downs is dealing with a shoulder injury and is questionable for the Patriots game. The problem for Indy is Richardson just isn’t accurate enough to take advantage of these potential mismatches, which is why he was benched for veteran Joe Flacco earlier in the season. The Patriots secondary was riddled each of the last two weeks and will look to bounce back against a Colts passing attack that hasn’t shown the ability to consistently get in gear without the benefit of the long ball. Christian Gonzalez & Co. will need to make sure that doesn’t happen Sunday.

Special Teams – Edge: Colts

Aside from Marcus Jones’ tremendous ability to return punts, there hasn’t been much to love about the Patriots special teams. Joey Slye missed a 45-yard field goal in Miami, a week after having a PAT blocked against the Rams. Punter Bryce Baringer had another touchback against the Dolphins, his league-leading eighth. On the plus side the coverage was better against Miami after some shaky moments in previous weeks but overall, it hasn’t been great in the so-called third phase. Indy’s specialists are solid with kicker Matt Gay and punter Rigoberto Sanchez. Gay is 21 of 24 on field goals this season with all three misses coming from beyond 50 yards while Sanchez has a solid 44-yard net punting average with just four touchbacks against 22 downed inside the opponent’s 20. Downs is a shifty punt returner, averaging 10.1 yards per return but the shoulder injury suffered in the loss to the Lions leaves him questionable. Tyler Goodson returns kicks for the Colts but hasn’t had many opportunities, averaging 27 yards on his seven attempts.