SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS
When the Patriots run – Edge: Titans
The Patriots picked up the 1 yard they needed to snap their six-game losing streak in the win over the Jets, but otherwise the struggles on the ground continued. Rhamondre Stevenson was held to 48 yards on 20 carries for a 2.4-yard average while running mate Antonio Gibson was limited to just 6 yards on five attempts. Other than the effective scrambles by quarterbacks Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots can’t get anything going on the ground. It won’t be easy for New England to break that trend against Tennessee’s defense. The Titans rank 12th in the league, allowing 113.9 yards per game, and 10th at 4.1 yards per carry. Led by their talented defensive front of Justin Simmons, Sebastian Joseph-Day and mammoth rookie T’Vondre Sweat, Tennessee has been able to keep inside linebackers Jerome Baker and Kenneth Murray clean. Baker missed the Lions game due to personal reasons and his status is unclear. The group is coming off a poor performance in Detroit on Sunday when it allowed the Lions to rush for 164 yards including a 70-yard touchdown by Jahmyr Gibbs. The Patriots figure to have the same offensive line together for a second straight week and third time in four games, and perhaps that continuity will lead to some improvement.
When the Patriots pass – Edge: Titans
It’s hard to believe based on Tennessee’s record but the Titans defense has performed well most of the season, especially in the secondary. The Titans lead the league in pass defense, allowing 151.6 yards per game, and rank third at 5.6 yards per pass play. Cornerbacks L’Jarius Snead, Jarvis Brownlee and Roger McCreary, along with safeties Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs have been stingy. Snead missed the Lions game due to a quad injury so his status will be worth monitoring. Darrell Baker replaced him in the starting lineup in Detroit and would likely do so again if the veteran can’t go. Meanwhile, the Patriots have injury questions of their own after Maye was knocked out of the Jets game in the second quarter due to a concussion. Brissett will once again start if the rookie is unable to clear protocol, which would be a blow to the offense. The Patriots will really miss Maye’s mobility because the passing game hasn’t been overly sharp without the scrambles. The wideouts dropped a number of catchable balls from both quarterbacks against New York, and based on the way the Titans secondary has played they won’t be able to afford to miss many opportunities. The Titans don’t get much pressure on the passer, however, which could help the passing game get untracked.
When the Titans run – Edge: Titans
The Patriots showed some improvement stopping the run against the Jets but still weren’t as stout as Jerod Mayo would like. Tennessee has been able to run the ball effectively at times this year and did so last week early in the loss to the Lions before the score got out of hand. The Titans racked up 158 yards on the ground, led by leading rusher Tony Pollard, who has 494 yards (4.3-yard average) and three touchdowns on the season. Tyjae Spears is an excellent change-of-pace back when healthy, which he wasn’t last week when he missed the game with a hamstring injury. He is small and elusive and capable of turning in big plays if left open in space. The Patriots got a boost from linebacker Christian Elliss last week as the special teamer replaced Raekwon McMillan in the starting lineup for the second straight game and delivered a solid nine-tackle performance. He’ll need to duplicate that effort to help out a front that continues to deal with injuries after Daniel Ekaule missed the Jets game with an oblique injury. Davon Godchaux and Jaquelin Roy held the fort up front and will be pressed by Pollard and the Titans physical approach under first-year head coach Brian Callahan and his father, well-respected offensive line coach Bill Callahan. This will be a key matchup for the Patriots on the road.
When the Titans pass – Edge: Patriots
The reason the Titans running game will be so important is the limitations the offense has in the passing department. Only the Patriots average fewer yards through the air than the 161.9 that Tennessee puts up. Starting quarterback Will Levis has missed time with a shoulder injury recently and his status is unclear. Backup Mason Rudolph hasn’t performed any better and tossed a pair of interceptions in last week’s blowout loss. Levis has a passer rating of 70.7 while Rudolph’s sits at 69.9, so not much to choose from there as neither has generated much production. If the quarterbacks find a rhythm, however, the Titans have some weapons. Calvin Ridley is the leading receiver with 22 catches for 326 yards for a healthy 14.8-yard average. He’s coming off a strong game with 10 catches for 143 yards in Detroit. Veteran Tyler Boyd (21-184-0) and tight end Chig Okonkwo (17-121-1) are capable targets, as are Spears and Pollard out of the backfield. But the inability of the quarterbacks to deliver accurate balls while avoiding turnovers (Levis has 10 turnovers while Rudolph has four) has prevented the Titans from establishing any offensive consistency. The Patriots secondary was better against the Jets and will need to build off that momentum in Nashville.
Special Teams – Edge: Patriots
This is a tough one to call because the Patriots special teams have been shaky in recent weeks. The punt coverage was once again leaky against the Jets, allowing a pair of big returns including a 40-yarder. Bryce Baringer also had a punt deflected, which allowed the Jets solid field position on another possession. But Marcus Jones turned in arguably the biggest play of the game when he ripped off a 62-yard punt return to set up a touchdown in the third quarter, and the Titans punt coverage was abysmal in Detroit last week. The Lions had five returns for 190 yards including a 90-yard touchdown and given Jones’ explosiveness that could be a huge area for the Patriots to exploit. The kickers are solid on both sides with former Patriot Nick Folk perfect thus far on 22 attempts including all nine field goals, three of which have come from beyond 50. Punter Ryan Stonehouse averages 51.2 yards on his 34 kicks but a net of just 34.6 yards after Sunday’s coverage debacle. Jha’Quan Johnson handles both punts and kicks for Tennessee but has been held in check.