The offseason is long, but it goes by very fast. And in less than two weeks, the Steelers will be practicing on Chuck Noll Field at Saint Vincent College in Latrobe, Pa.

As always, there are storylines, position battles, etc., that get a lot of attention throughout training camp. This year, there’s one that stands above the rest: Will T.J. Watt be in attendance?

Watt and the Steelers are currently negotiating a contract extension, and have made little progress on hammering one out by this point. If they don’t get it done by the time July 23 comes, the day players report to camp, there’s a legitimate question of whether or not he’ll be among those who check into the dorms of Saint Vincent College.

If Watt holds out, he’ll be subject to fines. However, he’s made enough money from his last contract that he might be willing to forego some money as a way to get more of what he wants in his next contract. Holdouts are usually a last resort for players, so if Watt does hold out, it means he’s pulling out all the stops to get something done.

He could skip the fines and report, but do what he did four years ago when he and the team were negotiating his current contract. This is called “holding in,” in which a player reports and participates in everything except for actual work on the field. It’s a loophole that players figured out to avoid fines but take the same stance as holding out.

There’s a strong chance that when all is said and done, Watt will be signing a contract that surpasses Ja’Marr Chase’s $40.25 million in average annual value (AAV), the highest among all NFL players that aren’t quarterbacks. Of course, the question then becomes if Watt is worth that kind of pay day since he’ll turn 31 years old during the upcoming season.

And, just to put this to rest now, no, Watt isn’t going to be traded. The Steelers have no intention of trading Watt. Omar Khan has repeatedly stated his desire to keep Watt in a Steelers uniform, and Mike Tomlin is supremely confident a contract will be worked out.

“I’m optimistic we’re going to get things done, because we have two sides that want to get things done,” Tomlin said at the end of minicamp. “When that’s going to occur, I do not know.”

Should the Steelers give Watt a contract that makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback, there will be many critics that don’t believe Watt is worth it at his age. However, context is important and explains that it isn’t the cost people think it is. 

The NFL has never been more healthy, and the league’s growth makes everything more affordable. When Watt signed his four-year, $112 million extension in 2021, he became the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. Even through restructuring the deal, which some incorrectly define as kicking the can down the road, the highest Watt’s cap hit has been through this deal is $30.4 million. It currently stands to be that figure this season, and it was the same in 2024.

How much of the team’s cap percentage was Watt’s highest cap hit? In 2024, his $30.4 million cap hit accounted for 11.8% of the league salary cap. This year, it’s just 10.7%.

For context, Watt’s $28 million AAV from his last contract extension was more than 15.3% of the league salary cap. It’s all about how the contract is structured, and Khan is a cap guy through and through. He’ll know how to structure it so it never becomes a burden, and also how to structure it so it can be restructured in the future, as well.

The reason why these cap figures sound much more expensive than they actually are is because the NFL’s salary cap is growing. When Watt signed his extension in 2021, the league’s salary cap was $182.5 million. In just four years, it’s grown all the way to $279.2 million. In two years, OverTheCap.com projects the cap to increase to $311 million, and based on the way the cap has increased over the past two years, it’s very possible that projection is pretty conservative. The league’s revenues are not only growing, but growing at a ridiculous rate. That’s why the cap is exponentially rising.

All of this is why Khan said at the NFL annual meeting, directly in regards to negotiations with Watt, “I don’t expect salaries to go down.”

So, if the Steelers signed Watt to a similar deal as they did in 2021, adjusted for the NFL’s own inflation, Watt should receive a deal with an AAV of $42.8 million. So, if Watt’s new contract surpasses Chase but is less than $42.8 million per year, in terms of percentage of the salary cap, it’ll be a better team deal than the contract they gave him four years ago. It’s not only important but necessary to put contracts relative to the cap because it’s all about how a team allocates their dollars.

Realistically, the sticking point in negotiations is likely the amount of guaranteed money. The Steelers likely don’t have a problem giving Watt an AAV that’s the highest among non-quarterbacks. But, unlike baseball where contracts are fully guaranteed and the only things to negotiate are AAV and contract length, the amount of guaranteed money is often a huge sticking point, especially when the player is older. The less guaranteed money, especially later in the contract, the more flexibility the team maintains. From the player’s perspective, they obviously want to be as well compensated as possible, and few players have the resume Watt has.

Perhaps all of this will be moot and the two sides will have hammered something out before July 23. Maybe nothing’s done, but Watt reports anyway, which might mean some negotiating takes place in Latrobe. Or perhaps the negotiation takes a darker turn in which Watt holds out completely.

Either way, the chances Watt suits up in Week 1 as a member of the Steelers with a new contract are very, very high.