SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

When the Patriots run – Edge: Rams

The Patriots running game showed some signs of life in Chicago, piling up 144 yards on 35 carries with Rhamondre Stevenson enjoying his best game in weeks. Stevenson led the way with 74 yards on 20 carries, allowing the offense to maintain a semblance of balance that had been missing. New England will look to build off that production against a Rams front that has struggled at times against the run. Braden Fiske, Bobby Brown and Kobie Turner line up in front of linebackers Omar Speights and Christian Rozeboom for a group that allows 127.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 19th in the league. However, opponents average only 4.3 yards per rush, which ranks a respectable eighth in the league, so the overall numbers may be a bit deceptive when it comes to the Rams ability to stop the run. Los Angeles has also played better on defense as of late after a rocky start with a number of rookies being incorporated into the starting lineup. The Patriots would like to keep some continuity up front with their offensive line after last week’s improvement in Chicago. Look for a group that includes, from left to right, Vederian Lowe, Michael Jordan, Ben Brown, Mike Onwenu and Trey Jacobs to get the call once again.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Patriots

The Rams young defense is improving but it still struggles to stop the pass. Los Angeles ranks 30th in average yards allowed per pass play, coughing 7.6 yards every time the opponent throws the ball. That figures to be an area young Drake Maye can exploit, provided that he protects the ball. For all the struggles the Rams secondary has endured, it has been able to take the ball away. That’s been due to a combination of improving pressure up front (the Rams rank ninth in the league in sacks per attempt) and a ball hawking approach on the back end. The Rams generate pressure in waves with Byron Young, Kobie Turner, Michael Hoecht and rookies Jared Verse and Fiske all with three or more sacks. The secondary features corners Darious Williams, Cobie Durant and Josh Wallace with safeties Kam Curl, Quentin Lake and Kamren Kinchens. That group has combined for eight picks, including Kinchens’ 103-yard pick-six in Seattle two weeks ago. Maye has been erratic with the ball at times with seven turnovers in his five starts, so avoiding mistakes will be key. He has been able to get the ball to DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte in recent weeks, and he should get chances to make plays against the struggling Rams secondary as well.

When the Rams run – Edge: Patriots

After several weeks of subpar play, the Patriots front seven dominated in Chicago and shut down the dangerous D’Andre Swift. New England limited the Bears to 73 yards on the ground on 20 attempts, holding Swift to just 3.7 yards per carry. Keion White and Jeremiah Pharms were active up front in Chicago and will need to duplicate that effort against the versatile Kyren Williams. The third-year Rams back doesn’t have gaudy statistics, averaging under 4 yards per carry on the season, but he’s capable of hurting you. He leads the Rams with eight rushing touchdowns and Sean McVay likes to run the offense through him. Problems along the offensive line have hurt his production as Los Angeles ranks 26th in the league, averaging just 94.1 yards per game on the ground, and 31st at 3.8 per carry. The Patriots need to build off the solid bounce back effort against the Bears in order to force the Rams into obvious passing situations. Davon Godchaux, White and Pharms controlled the line of scrimmage and bottled up Swift in Chicago, and doing the same against Williams and the Rams will go a long way toward allowing the Patriots to post the upset.

When the Rams pass – Edge: Rams

The reason stopping the run is so important for the Patriots is so much of what McVay wants to do offensively is predicated on the ground game. Williams’ production allows Matthew Stafford to pick and choose his spots, and when his top two receivers are healthy, he’s as dangerous as anyone doing so. That is the case at the moment with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the fold after missing most of the first half of the season. Since they returned to the lineup three weeks ago the Rams offense has taken off, despite their struggles on third down (3-12) and in the red zone (0-for-3) last week against Miami. Their early-season absences allowed Stafford to establish a rapport with DeMarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington and Tyler Johnson and all have been productive when called on. Robinson’s one-handed touchdown catch in overtime in Seattle was one of their first-half highlights. The Patriots secondary has seen its share of ups and downs and the Rams group, which also includes tight end Colby Parkinson and Williams out of the backfield, will provide a huge test. Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones competed well last week in Chicago but struggled at times in the previous games against the Jets and Titans. Getting pressure on Stafford will be paramount as the 36-year-old doesn’t move as well as he once did. Coming off a 9-sack performance in Chicago, the Patriots front will look to keep the heat on.

Special Teams – Edge: Patriots

Marcus Jones continues to be the lone bright spot among the Patriots special teams. He’s averaging 15.6 yards per punt return, including a 24-yarder to set up a field goal in Chicago. Otherwise, Jeremy Springer’s units have been plagued by mistakes. The punt coverage has struggled most of the season and once again allowed a 38-yard return by the Bears DeAndre Carter. The Patriots also had a pair of penalties in Chicago, one when Joey Slye failed to land his kickoff in the legal area and another when Joe Giles-Harris was called for an illegal formation on a punt. Those types of mental breakdowns have hurt the team all season and have prevented the special teams from being a strength. Slye continued his solid season, however, making all four field goals in windy conditions. His big leg gives the Patriots an edge over the Rams Joshua Karty, who has been inconsistent in his rookie season. Karty has missed a pair of PATs and three field goals this season. Ethan Evans handles the punting chores for LA and has just one touchback all year. Blake Corum (kicks) and Xavier Smith (punts) are the return men but neither has approached the type of production the Patriots are getting from Jones.