2. The Buccaneers will likely utilize their tight ends and running backs quite a bit in the passing game.
Tampa Bay owns the No. 4 scoring offense in the NFL at 29.4 points-per-game, and aside from Evans and Godwin’s contributions, a major hallmark of the Buccaneers’ offense has been their usage of running backs in the passing game.
Buccaneers’ running backs lead the NFL in catches (54), receiving yards (491) and receiving touchdowns (4) this season. That production is due in large part to the efforts of tailback (and Kansas City native) Rachaad White, who has 28 catches for 236 yards and three scores, and rookie running back Bucky Irving, who has hauled in 20 grabs for 164 yards.
Additionally, tight end Cade Otton figures to have a busy night with Evans and Godwin both unavailable. Otton has drawn exactly 10 targets in each of the last two weeks, catching 17 passes for 181 yards and two touchdowns.
It’s all to say that quarterback Baker Mayfield, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 21, will still be firing the football on Monday despite missing his top two options. The Chiefs’ defense, meanwhile, will aim to hold a sixth-straight opponent under 21 points (and a 29th consecutive opponent under 28 points).
Additionally, while Mayfield is off to the best statistical season of his career, his 14 “turnover worthy plays,” as compiled by Pro Football Focus, rank second in the NFL.
3. Kansas City has been efficient on third down and in the red zone lately.
The Chiefs converted 12-of-16 third-down attempts last Sunday, marking their top conversion percentage (75%) in a game in which they faced 10 or more third downs since early in the 2021 season. Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in third down efficiency (50.5%), and when looking at individual games, the Chiefs have converted at least 40 percent of their third-down attempts in six of their seven contests this year. No team has done so in more games this season.
As for the red zone, Kansas City was 3-for-4 in terms of red zone efficiency last week after going 4-of-5 the week prior. The Chiefs’ seven red zone touchdowns in that time trail only Baltimore (8). That efficiency on third down and in the red zone has led to at least 27 points in each of the last two weeks, and it’s proven to be a winning formula.
In fact, the Chiefs rank third in the NFL in average time of possession (32:20), fifth in total number of 10-play drives (17) and sixth in rushing attempts-per-game (31.1). In other words, the Chiefs have mastered the art of ball control, and when paired with an efficient attack on third down and in the red zone – not to mention a great defense – this team has proven to be very difficult to beat.
Kansas City will look to execute that formula going on Monday against a Buccaneers’ defense that ranks 19th on third down (38.8%) and 13th in the red zone (54.8%).