In the final “Draft Chasms of Doom” installment, we shift our focus from quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers to tight ends — and look at the significant value drop-offs in my Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) rankings. And man, do they drop.
At the top of the rankings are major dips among the top four picks, a sharp decline at No. 5 after Travis Kelce, and then another after TE13.
However, I don’t (and won’t) consider Kelce part of Tier 1, despite the projections saying he could be. I put him in the next group, as his best days are behind him. The only caveat would be if Rashee Rice is suspended six games or more. Then my ranks will come closer to the projections shown here. Everyone from Kelce to Mark Andrews could finish as TE4 or miss the Top 10, and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
That’s why, despite Tier 1 showing a solid group of options, I’m unlikely to end up with any of them, as there are similar ceilings with many end-game options. So, it’s the same strategy as with the quarterbacks for me: If a Tier 1 tight end is there in Round 3-5, I’ll pounce (maybe I’d even use the last pick or two of Round 2 for Brock Bowers). Otherwise, the Tier 2 options would need to reach Round 8 or later for me to draft them, and most don’t. LaPorta currently has a Round 5 ADP, while T.J. Hockenson, Kelce, Andrews and Evan Engram range from Rounds 6-7.
The chart, which visually depicts the drop-offs, illustrates that Hockenson, Andrews, Engram, and even LaPorta are in the same value tier, while Kelce is in Tier 1 (again, I disagree with the projection). So why reach for LaPorta when the value difference among these players is so little?
And that’s what we’re looking at in this series, where the major cliffs in positional groups are and why drafting the next-best player at a position of need isn’t always the best strategy. While rankings show value, they don’t show the difference in value between individual players or among a group of players.
If I’m looking later in the draft for TEs, some of my favorite late-round fliers include Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts (hey, he’s free now), Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, Brenton Strange and rookie Colston Loveland. The best part about taking a tight end super late is that the position is “bleh,” as shown in the positional comparisons chart.
It takes a mere 60/500/5 line to crack TE1 status. Whoop-dee-do, Basil! I’m aiming for Top 5 (or close) breakout upside, and if the flier I take misses, I’m off to the waivers for someone who might have it. Jonnu Smith (190 ADP), Zach Ertz (198) and Tucker Kraft (308) were all Top 10 last season and undrafted. Heck, Bowers was TE10-11 in ADP last year!
(Photo of Brock Bowers: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)