Around the NFL

August 02, 2025

Caleb Williams looks iffy so far

The reports suggest it’s been a rough go for Caleb Williams in Chicago. Ben Johnson hasn’t yet been able to turn him around.

It’s early, of course. But Williams seems to be struggling with some of the same issues that plagued him last year, hanging onto the ball too long, missed opportunities and plays simply not being run quickly enough. Johnson benched the entire offense at one point.

Not that anybody should be pulling the plug on Williams just yet, but it’s a reminder that he’s one of just many quarterbacks who could potentially be a lot better this year. He’s a later-round prospect, rather than an up-and-comer who looks certain to take a big step forward – in there with the other second-year gamble, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix.

More often than not, those second-year dart throws miss. In the 32-team era, there have been 25 quarterbacks selected in the first round who finished with bottom-10 numbers in their first year. (Not cumulative numbers, but per-game stats, relative to other quarterbacks starting at least half the season).

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS WITH BOTTOM-10 NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2002David Carr, Hou.16162.56.9418.1913.5282002Joey Harrington, Det.121871.001.330.0013.4292003Kyle Boller, Balt.9139.781.007.0011.6312004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.131881.15.6911.0815.6242008Joe Flacco, Balt.16186.88.7511.1314.8262009Josh Freeman, T.B.92041.112.0017.0016.8232009Mark Sanchez, NYJ15163.801.337.2013.5282010Sam Bradford, St.L.162201.13.944.0616.2242011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.14154.86.797.0011.8332011Christian Ponder, Min.101751.301.3021.0016.1242012Brandon Weeden, Clev.15226.931.137.0015.8272012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16206.75.8113.1315.6282013EJ Manuel, Buff.101971.10.9019.2017.7252014Blake Bortles, Jac.13207.691.1530.0016.2272016Carson Wentz, Phil.162361.00.889.1317.8272017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.12183.58.5821.1714.7292018Josh Rosen, Ariz.13172.851.0010.0013.1322018Sam Darnold, NYJ132201.311.1511.0817.8272020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.92011.22.5612.3318.4292021Justin Fields, Chi.10180.70.9039.1016.3302021Mac Jones, N.E.172241.29.768.0017.1262021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.17214.711.0020.1216.2292021Zach Wilson, NYJ13180.69.8514.3115.2312022Kenny Pickett, Pitt.12190.58.5019.0814.5302023Bryce Young, Car.16180.69.6316.0013.6282024Caleb Williams, Chi.172081.18.3529.0018.422

Of those 25 quarterbacks, only eight (about 1 in 3) finished with top-20 per-game numbers the next season. Four moved up into the top 10 (and those guys are in old), while the other four ranked between 11th and 16th (tagged with dots).

To me, Williams looks like a decent dice roll as a second quarterback, but not a guy I would want to invest much in.

THOSE SAME QUARTERBACKS IN SECOND SEASONS
YearPlayerStPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2003David Carr, Hou.11181.821.0911.1814.5262003Joey Harrington, Det.161801.061.385.0014.0272004Kyle Boller, Balt.16160.81.6912.0612.9312005• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.121991.42.756.2517.7152009Joe Flacco, Balt.162261.31.754.0016.9212010• Josh Freeman, T.B.162161.56.3823.0019.4162010Mark Sanchez, NYJ162061.06.817.1916.4232011Sam Bradford, St.L.10216.60.603.0013.5322012Christian Ponder, Min.161831.13.7516.1316.1262012Blaine Gabbert, Jac.10166.90.606.0012.9312013Ryan Tannehill, Mia.162451.501.0615.0620.1202013Brandon Weeden, Clev.53041.601.608.0022.5–2014EJ Manuel, Buff.42101.25.7513.2518.3–2015Blake Bortles, Jac.162772.191.1319.1325.422017Carson Wentz, Phil.132542.54.5423.0025.722018Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.142301.71.8630.2123.2102019Sam Darnold, NYJ132331.461.005.1519.3262019Josh Rosen, Mia.3155.331.004.009.5–2021Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.122081.33.8311.1717.8222022Justin Fields, Chi.151491.13.7376.5323.062022• Trevor Lawrence, Jac.172421.47.4717.2921.8112022Mac Jones, N.E.142141.00.797.0716.0282022Zach Wilson, NYJ9188.67.7811.1113.8312023Kenny Pickett, Pitt.12173.50.335.0811.6292024• Bryce Young, Car.121961.25.7520.5019.815

—Ian Allan