The AFC South has been one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions, and the 2025 season should be no different. Last year, the Houston Texans limped to a 10-7 record to win the division, while the Jaguars, Titans, and Colts all struggled to find consistency. This offseason, each team made significant changes, and with major injuries to key players, bettors and fantasy players need to look beyond the standings to find value. Here’s a complete breakdown of AFC South betting and fantasy football for this upcoming 2025 season
(This is an AI-generated article from a recently published IDP+ Podcast transcript.)
Tennessee Titans: Rookie QB, Big Questions
The Titans hit rock bottom in 2024, finishing 3-14. They used the first overall pick on quarterback Cam Ward, who will lead a rebuilt offense that added Tyler Lockett, Van Jefferson, and guard Kevin Zeitler. The line still looks shaky, with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. struggling in camp and center Lloyd Cushenberry expected to miss the start of the season after tearing his Achilles last year. The defense remains one of the league’s weakest despite the addition of Dre’Mont Jones and Xavier Woods.
Injuries complicate things further. Treylon Burks broke his collarbone and could miss anywhere from four weeks to three months, depending on whether surgery is required. Zeitler’s hamstring is minor, but Cushenberry’s absence could create more pressure on Ward in his rookie season.
Fantasy managers face a tough call in the Titans’ backfield. Tony Pollard is being drafted as RB26, while Tyjae Spears is going at RB42. Pollard is the safer pick, but neither is appealing given the offensive line and timeshare concerns. Calvin Ridley, on the other hand, remains the clear WR1 after back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, and his volume could rise with Ward likely forced to throw often.
Hosts’ Bets for the Titans
Professor Locks: Under 5.5 wins (+125).
The Degen Doc: Calvin Ridley over 1,000 receiving yards (+135).
Jacksonville Jaguars: Can Trevor Lawrence Finally Deliver?
The Jaguars were a major disappointment last season, stumbling to a 4-13 record. With offensive line upgrades and the addition of two dynamic receivers, 2025 could be a turning point. Rookie Travis Hunter will split snaps at wide receiver and cornerback, joining breakout star Bryan Thomas Jr. as Trevor Lawrence’s top options. Liam Coen takes over as offensive coordinator, and with a bolstered line anchored by Patrick Mekari, the team hopes to give Lawrence his best chance to meet lofty expectations.
Fantasy value is concentrated in two places: Hunter and the running back room. Hunter’s ADP sits near WR30, but his limited offensive snaps make him better for best ball formats than redraft. In the backfield, Tank Bigsby (RB45) is emerging as the value play over Travis Etienne (RB35). Bigsby led the Jaguars in rushing yards and touchdowns last year, averaged nearly a yard more per carry than Etienne, and is favored for goal-line work.
On defense, Jacksonville’s front seven, led by Josh Allen and Travon Walker, could be one of the better units in the division. Their pass rush and a soft divisional schedule give them a chance to contend and make the AFC South betting more volatile.
Hosts’ Bets for the Jaguars
Professor Locks: Trevor Lawrence over 3,700.5 passing yards (-110).
The Degen Doc: Over 7.5 wins (+100) and AFC South winner (+310).
The Degen Doc: Tank Bigsby 5+ touchdowns (-110), 10+ touchdowns (+800), and 1,000+ rushing yards (+450).
Indianapolis Colts: Two Quarterbacks, No Answers
The Colts finished 8-9 last year and enter 2025 with a win total of 7.5, but the biggest storyline is their quarterback battle. Anthony Richardson remains a physical marvel, but he has struggled with staying healthy, a problem that dates back to his high school days. Daniel Jones is the alternative, though his ACL and neck issues, combined with his turnover-prone play, make him equally unreliable. The rest of the roster, from Jonathan Taylor to a talented receiver group, is solid, but shaky quarterback play threatens to undermine it all.
Jonathan Taylor is the lone clear fantasy target. Despite missing three games last season, he rushed for 1,400 yards and is being drafted as RB10, with the hosts ranking him as high as RB6. The wide receivers are harder to trust given the passing game. Alec Pierce, who led the team with 824 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 22 yards per catch, is the best late-round dart throw, especially in best ball formats.
The defense, led by Zaire Franklin and an athletic secondary, should keep games competitive, but the Colts could still crater if their quarterbacks falter.
Hosts’ Bets for the Colts
Professor Locks: Under 7.5 wins (-110) and Tyler Warren under 525.5 receiving yards (-110).
The Degen Doc: Under 7.5 wins (-110) and Colts to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL (+1700).
The Degen Doc: Jonathan Taylor to lead the NFL in rushing yards (+1000).
Houston Texans: Defending Champs Face Health Hurdles
The Texans won the AFC South last year despite late-season injuries to Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. They overhauled their roster this offseason, adding Nick Chubb, Christian Kirk, and a trio of linemen in Trent Brown, Cam Robinson, and Ed Ingram. The defense, led by Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, and a healthy Derek Stingley Jr., remains one of the AFC’s best. However, injuries could define their season.
Dell suffered a catastrophic multi-ligament knee injury (ACL, MCL, LCL, patellar dislocation, and meniscus) and is unlikely to contribute before December, if at all. Mixon has re-aggravated his high ankle sprain multiple times since Week 13 of last year and could miss the start of the season. Damien Pierce, currently on the PUP list, is a deep sleeper if Mixon and Chubb falter.
Nico Collins is the clear alpha in this offense and a strong fantasy option after building a strong rapport with CJ Stroud. Christian Kirk slots in as WR2 with Dell sidelined and could be a valuable red-zone target.
Hosts’ Bets for the Texans
Professor Locks: Over 9.5 wins (+100), Texans to win the AFC South (+110), Texans make playoffs/Panthers miss (+130).
Professor Locks: Nico Collins over 1,125.5 receiving yards (-110) and over 1,250 yards (+150).
The Degen Doc: Under 9.5 wins (+110) and Christian Kirk 5+ receiving touchdowns (+225).
The 2025 AFC South Betting Picture
With uncertainty across the division, betting value comes from focusing on individual player props and fading instability. The Jaguars have the clearest path to a division title if Trevor Lawrence can take the leap, while the Titans look poised for another long year. The Colts’ season depends entirely on Richardson and Jones staying upright, and Houston’s offensive line and backfield health will determine if they can repeat as champs.
For fantasy players, Tank Bigsby, Alec Pierce, Nico Collins, and Christian Kirk present the best value, while Joe Mixon and Tank Dell are major injury red flags. For bettors, Jacksonville offers the most upside as a division bet, and Indianapolis carries the highest downside for those targeting long-shot futures.
The AFC South may be unpredictable, but that volatility creates opportunity for those willing to dig deeper than the standings.
Thank you for reading this article by @IDP_Plus. This article was created using IDP+ AI and edited by Derek Bennett. Be sure to check out the video above by The Degen Doc and Professor Locks, which this video is based on, talking about the AFC South. Follow @TheDegenDoc and @Prof_Lock2 on X!