NFL players tend to bounce back after posting unusually low touchdown numbers. That is a principle that can be used to gain an advantage heading into 2025 Fantasy football drafts. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had a career-low three touchdowns last season, and he was only targeted six times in the end zone. However, he still ranked inside the top five among tight ends in snaps, targets, catches and yardage. If his end zone targets increase this year, Kelce could wind up among the 2025 Fantasy football sleepers.
Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson is in a similar situation, as he recorded the most targets (88) without a touchdown reception last year. He scored five touchdowns on 10 end zone targets in 2023, and a healthy Dak Prescott at quarterback might make Ferguson a strong addition to 2025 Fantasy football lineups. Before setting your 2025 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud might take a step back in his second season. He finished as QB18 and anybody who avoided drafting him early dodged a major headache in their Fantasy football lineups.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021 and calling Rachaad White’s breakout in 2023. Additionally, it has called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest 2025 Fantasy football rankings for PPR and non-PPR leagues, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Fantasy football sleepers
One of the 2025 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Commanders running back Austin Ekeler. The 30-year-old is being overlooked in Fantasy drafts due to Washington’s crowded backfield, which includes Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez Jr. However, Ekeler was productive when healthy last year, scoring double-digit PPR points in eight out of his 12 games.
He had 134 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns in two games when Robinson was sidelined with a hamstring injury, showing that he still has a high ceiling. Another injury to Robinson could open the door for a return to RB1 status for Ekeler. SportsLine’s model has him ranked ahead of running backs like J.K. Dobbins and Quinshon Judkins, who are both going off the board before Ekeler in consensus ADP data. See more Fantasy football sleepers 2025 here.
Top 2025 Fantasy football breakouts
One of the 2025 Fantasy football breakouts the model is predicting: Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty enters the NFL following a dominant final season at Boise State, where he totaled over 1,800 yards and 19 touchdowns. A true three-down back, Jeanty combines elite balance, tackle-breaking strength and proven pass-catching ability, hauling in over 40 receptions in 2024. His all-around skill set made him one of college football’s most versatile offensive weapons and a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick in the NFL Draft, is expected to be the focal point of the Raiders’ ground game from Day 1. He lands in an ideal situation under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has a track record of maximizing dynamic running backs, and head coach Pete Carroll, who favors a run-heavy philosophy. With a strong supporting scheme and immediate opportunity, Jeanty is well-positioned to become a Fantasy football standout and one of the league’s most impactful rookie playmakers. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2025 here.
Top 2025 Fantasy football busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams as one of its 2025 Fantasy football busts. The Lions’ offensive personnel is similar to last year, however, the man calling the plays is different as Detroit lost Ben Johnson, who was considered one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL. Williams benefited from Johnson’s ability to scheme the speedy receiver open down the field and into space. Williams had a significant rise in production in Year 3 under Johnson with 58 receptions for 1,0001 receiving yards and seven touchdowns compared to 24 receptions for 354 yards and two touchdowns in his sophomore campaign.
The model has Williams ranked outside the top 40 at his position. Meanwhile, he’s being drafted inside the top 30 in early 2025 Fantasy football drafts. He’s going ahead of more proven receivers such as DeVonta Smith, Courtland Sutton and Zay Flowers, who the model has significantly more belief in than Williams. Based on his current ADP and the unknowns about changes in the offense this year, the model sees Williams as a prime candidate for a 2025 Fantasy football bust. See more Fantasy football busts 2025 here.
How to find proven 2025 Fantasy football football rankings
SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising wide receiver you aren’t even thinking about being taken in the early rounds of 2025 Fantasy football drafts. This wide receiver is listed as a shocking top-15 option ahead of stars like A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2025 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which WR shocks the NFL with a top-15 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called C.J. Stroud’s disappointing sophomore season in 2024, and find out.