The AFC is top-heavy, featuring the first, second and fourth most-favored teams to win the Super Bowl. I only envision two new teams making the playoffs in the conference this season. After previewing the NFC, it’s time for more general commentary and (sometimes irresponsible) fantasy predictions for every team in the AFC. Bonus prediction: Some, if not many, will be wrong!

AFC East
Buffalo Bills 13-4
New England Patriots 9-8
Miami Dolphins 6-11
New York Jets 5-12
Bills

Buffalo is the only team favored in all 17 games on their schedule this season. They’ll benefit from playing in a softer division and having one of the very best players, Josh Allen. But questions remain about who will step up among the Bills’ pass catchers. James Cook saw his TD rate jump from 0.7% in 2023 to a league-high 7.3% last season, scoring 18 touchdowns while playing just 48% of the snaps. While Cook screams touchdown regression, he was among the leaders in carries inside the 10 and will get fed in one of the league’s best offenses after getting paid during the offseason.

Predictions: Josh Allen finishes as fantasy’s QB1; James Cook scores double-digit touchdowns again, but Ray Davis also produces a couple of spike weeks. The Bills are on the short list of Super Bowl favorites and have a good shot at securing the No. 1 seed, aided by their schedule/division, but Buffalo still needs to get Allen more help.

Patriots

New England is favored in 11 games entering the season, one year after going 4-13, thanks partly to the league’s second-easiest projected schedule. The Patriots are due for some better luck on defense after recovering an NFL-low 22.2% of fumbles last year, and New England experienced a coaching upgrade during the offseason.

Predictions: Drake Maye is a top-12 fantasy QB, while Hunter Henry is a top-12 TE; TreVeyon Henderson, who racked up 1,560 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns on just 210 touches as a 19-year-old freshman and never fumbled in college, is drafted as a top-five fantasy back in 2026. HIMderson is the new Jahmyr Gibbs, but the Patriots fall just short in the wild-card race.

Dolphins

Miami enters with major questions on defense and the offensive line. Tyreek Hill could destroy his lower-than-usual ADP, as his lingering wrist injury may have led to last season’s down numbers. But Hill is 31 years old and already dealing with a lingering oblique injury. The vibes seem questionable in Miami, and the Dolphins carry the risk of collapsing.

Predictions: Mike McDaniel is the first coach fired in 2025, and De’Von Achane falls outside the top-10 fantasy backs; Jaylen Waddle is one of Miami’s few fantasy profits along with rookie Ollie Gordon, whom fantasy managers will be starting when Achane misses time; and the Dolphins look very different in 2026.

Jets

New York was a bottom-three defense after firing Robert Saleh in Week 5 last year, and they lost D.J. Reed in the offseason. The Jets’ offensive line should be a strength, but this is one of the league’s lowest projected scoring teams in 2025.

Predictions: Justin Fields is a top-eight fantasy QB, but Garrett Wilson is outscored by Xavier Worthy, Tetairoa McMillan, George Pickens and Calvin Ridley; the Jets employ a running back by committee; rookies Henderson and RJ Harvey both outscore Breece Hall; and Mason Taylor is a popular waiver-wire add midseason, but New York finishes last in its division.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-5
Cincinnati Bengals 10-7 (wild card)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-8
Cleveland Browns 3-14
Ravens

Baltimore has a loaded roster and added rookie safety Malaki Starks and cornerback Jaire Alexander to an already stacked secondary. Lamar Jackson saw an NFL record 50% of his red zone passes result in touchdowns last year, which more than doubled his previous three seasons. His 41 passing scores came with 28 “expected” passing TDs. Even if a little regression is coming, Jackson remains a locked-in top-three fantasy QB.

Predictions: Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing, runs for 20 touchdowns and wins Offensive Player of the Year; in the unlikely event an injury strikes The Big Dog, then Keaton Mitchell becomes a borderline RB1 — picture Chris Johnson in this system. Tyler Loop finishes as a top-five fantasy kicker as a rookie, and the Ravens win the Super Bowl.

Bengals

The gap between Cincinnati’s situation-neutral pass rate (69%) and the team with the second-highest rate last season was as wide as the No. 2 and No. 20 ranked teams. The Bengals easily led the league in pass rate over the past three seasons. Tee Higgins has the contingency upside to be a true league winner and the No. 1 fantasy wideout should Ja’Marr Chase go down.

Predictions: Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards, and Tahj Brooks becomes 2025’s best RB stash payoff; CeeDee Lamb outscores Chase, who doesn’t repeat as fantasy’s WR1; Cincinnati’s offense is clearly good enough to win a Super Bowl, but its highly questionable defense and ownership leave them vulnerable to once again miss the postseason.

Steelers

Pittsburgh enters with arguably the best defense in football, but questions remain about how far a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers can take the team. DK Metcalf could be a target hog as the lone alpha in Pittsburgh, but this will be a slow offense, and Arthur Smith’s history of targeting his WR1s is scary.

Predictions: Jaylen Warren outscores Kaleb Johnson, who is a fantasy bust; Jonnu Smith is a popular early-season drop; the Rodgers and Metcalf relationship ends badly; and the league’s best defense and terrific coaching help Pittsburgh finish above .500 again, but the Steelers fall short of the playoffs.

Browns

Joe Flacco will help David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman get off to hot starts, but things could turn ugly if/when there’s a quarterback shakeup. Dylan Sampson was graded close to, if not higher than, Quinshon Judkins by some draftniks, and Judkins continues to fall behind while still waiting to be signed.

Predictions: Sampson emerges as Cleveland’s most valuable fantasy back by a wide margin; Harold Fannin is drafted as a top-12 fantasy tight end in 2026; Dillon Gabriel has a better NFL career than Shedeur Sanders; and the Browns battle for the NFL’s worst record.

AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8
Houston Texans 9-8
Indianapolis Colts 7-10
Tennessee Titans 5-12
Jaguars

Jacksonville’s new head coach, Liam Coen, just helped Baker Mayfield post a career-best season, and there’s hope he’ll do the same for Trevor Lawrence in 2025. Coen also produced a ton of running back fantasy points in Tampa Bay last season, so figuring out Jacksonville’s backfield will be key.

Predictions: Lawrence finishes as a top-12 fantasy QB, while Brian Thomas is a top-three WR; Travis Hunter is a true cheat code in IDP leagues while finishing as a top-25 fantasy wideout; Bhayshul Tuten is inactive Week 1 but eventually emerges as the Jaguars’ best back during the fantasy playoffs; Brenton Strange is a top-15 fantasy tight end; Lawrence/BTJ/Hunter/Strange stacks “feed families” in 2025; and Jacksonville’s defense and offensive line remain issues, but the Jaguars are in the right division to sneak into the playoffs.

Texans

Houston has an elite defensive line and quarterback. The Texans also get to play in one of the softest divisions, but the league’s worst offensive line will continue to be a hurdle. Nico Collins is one of seven wide receivers I’d strongly consider ranking as high as WR2 this year. He could easily finish as the WR1. Joe Mixon’s injury situation sounds ominous.

Predictions: C.J. Stroud plays better in 2025 but isn’t a top-20 fantasy QB; Joe Mixon starts the year on the PUP list, leaving Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks as an unproductive committee; Christian Kirk is a major ADP beater, especially early on; and the Texans lose the division due to a tiebreaker.

Colts

The Anthony Richardson benching may have crushed my soul, but it was terrific news for Indianapolis’ pass catchers. The Colts averaged an NFL-low 16.5 catchable targets per game with Richardson last season, while the Giants averaged 26.0 with Daniel Jones. The move also benefited Jonathan Taylor, who saw his opportunities jump from 21.9 to 28.8 during games without Richardson.

Predictions: Tyler Warren leads the Colts in targets and finishes as the fourth-best fantasy tight end; Josh Downs puts up some monster weeks but continues to battle injuries, while Taylor comfortably outscores Achane; Richardson is a top-three fantasy QB during at least one week in 2025, but the mostly Jones-led Colts continue to go nowhere.

Titans

Cam Ward’s development is the only thing that matters to Tennessee this season, and all signs so far have been overwhelmingly positive. Calvin Ridley led the NFL in air yards last season, but just 56% were catchable. He should be a target hog in a sneaky good scheme with a massive upgrade at quarterback this year.

Predictions: Ridley finishes as a top 15 fantasy WR; Tony Pollard is a top-15 fantasy RB until Tyjae Spears eventually gets right; and Elic Ayomanor quickly becomes the Titans’ WR2, while Chig Okonkwo is a top-20 fantasy TE. The future looks brighter in Tennessee.

AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 12-5
Denver Broncos 10-7 (wild card)
Los Angeles Chargers 10-7 (wild card)
Las Vegas Raiders 7-10
Chiefs

Kansas City will eventually lose a one-score game after winning 17 straight, and it’s not easy playing into February every year. But the Chiefs have the NFL’s best quarterback and elite coaching (Kansas City’s coordinator continuity is highly enviable), so another run at the Super Bowl is coming. We are all still waiting for an explanation as to why the rest of the league allowed Kansas City to solve its left tackle problem with the last pick of the first round.

Predictions: Mahomes’ deep ball returns, and he throws 35+ touchdowns; Xavier Worthy finishes as a top-15 fantasy WR, while Rashee Rice is top-10 in points per game; Isiah Pacheco is a top-20 fantasy back; and Travis Kelce falls outside the top-10 fantasy tight ends and watches Taylor Swift perform the halftime Super Bowl show from a Levi’s Stadium suite, as the Chiefs lose in the conference championship game.

Broncos

Denver is dangerous, with an elite offensive line, defense and coaching. Bo Nix was fantasy’s QB6 over his final 13 games as a rookie despite playing through three fractures in his back and having the second-most dropped air yards during on-target throws. Sean Payton started trusting Nix more as last season progressed, and the quarterback figures to show further growth in Year 2.

Predictions: RJ Harvey finishes as a top-15 fantasy back, while J.K. Dobbins is top-25 in points per game; Nix is a top-eight fantasy QB, but Evan Engram isn’t a top-10 TE; and Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant trade spike weeks and prove to be better best ball picks. The Broncos could make some noise in the playoffs, even in a loaded AFC.

Chargers

Joe Alt can move to left tackle, but the season-ending loss of Rashawn Slater will be felt in Los Angeles. Omarion Hampton is a beast, but the history of fantasy backs under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman is (maybe?) worth pointing out. The Chargers ranked second-to-last in RB targets last season. A Roman backfield has never ranked top-10 in PPR scoring. Harbaugh/Roman offenses ranked in RB fantasy scoring over five seasons: 20th, 18th, 18th, 29th, 25th. Hampton can overcome it, but targets will be limited, and Najee Harris could be ready for Week 1.

Predictions: Keenan Allen being set to play the “Z” position is fantastic news for Ladd McConkey, who finishes as a top-12 fantasy WR; Henderson outscores Hampton in fantasy; and the Chargers must travel 76.4% more miles than the Bengals this season, but Los Angeles secures one of the AFC’s final wild-card slots.

Raiders

Geno Smith is a dramatic upgrade over Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. Smith has seen his fantasy production increase an NFL-high 49% in domes over the past three seasons, and the Raiders play 13 games indoors in 2025. Las Vegas’ coaching staff experienced improvement as well during the offseason. The Raiders are also due for better luck after somehow recovering the lowest percentage of fumbles on offense (just 18.8%!) and the second lowest on defense (25.0%) last season. But an incredibly difficult division and a historically bad net rest differential will be tough to overcome.

Predictions: Ashton Jeanty wins Offensive Rookie of the Year; Brock Bowers records 100+ receptions again and scores more touchdowns as a sophomore; and Jakobi Meyers finishes as a top-30 fantasy wideout, while Dont’e Thornton easily outscores Jack Bech. The Raiders are no longer a pushover with a real quarterback this season, and their future looks brighter with the league’s best young RB/TE combo, but last place appears likely in 2025.

Conference predictionsAFC Championship: Ravens over Chiefs Super Bowl: Ravens over Eagles

 (Photo of Justin Fields: Justin Casterline/Getty Images)