If there’s something we’ve learned over time with the annual Hope-O-Meter survey, it’s that one disappointing season can rattle the faith of a college football fan base.
Oklahoma State and Florida State are the latest examples. Last year at this time, fans of those two teams were oozing with confidence coming off double-digit win seasons.
Perspectives, though, changed quickly after rough campaigns in Stillwater and Tallahassee.
“Nothing short of Boone Pickens’ resurrection can help,” OSU fan Jess Porter wrote in this year’s survey. “All is lost.”
“I’ve lost faith in Mike Norvell as a coach,” FSU fan Styles shared. “His win-loss record without Jordan Travis is a travesty.”
The good news? It can go the other way, too. Hope can be restored.
Of the 12,415 responses to this year’s survey for all 136 Football Bowl Subdivision schools — including newcomers Delaware and Missouri State — only 2,211 fans classified themselves as pessimistic heading into the season.
That means, more than 82 percent say they’re believers.
Three Power 4 fan bases are 100 percent full of hope — Utah, SMU and Louisville. None are completely hopeless. At least not yet.
Even fans of Group of 5 programs — who understandably are upset over having their rosters picked apart year after year by P4 schools with bigger budgets — are optimistic; 78.4 percent of respondents feel good about their teams.
Bowling Green, James Madison, Louisiana, Navy, San Jose State, Southern Miss and Toledo didn’t have a pessimistic fan among them.
Important topics
NIL, revenue sharing and the transfer portal have changed the sport. So, naturally, those topics remain among the most discussed aside from coaching.
But the complaints over conference realignment? Only five fans brought it up this year.
Which fan bases brought up the Heisman talk the most? Arizona State, Clemson, Florida, Notre Dame, South Carolina and Washington led the way.
• Chris, Arizona State fan: “We are about to get our first Heisman winner!”
• Robert S., Clemson fan: ”Cade Klubnik is ready to compete for the Heisman with an extremely talented receiver room.”
• Chris, Florida fan: “DJ Lagway is going to win a Heisman. Just not sure when.”
• Grande Jaime, Notre Dame fan: “Love 4 Heisman.”
• Marc Phinney, South Carolina fan: “Very hopeful — LaHeisman.
• Zach, Washington fan: “Demond Williams. Heisman.”
Where is confidence brimming?
So, which fan bases are walking around completely satisfied with the direction of their favorite team?
Let’s start with Utah. Despite an underwhelming 5-7 record in 2024 — the program’s first losing season since 2013 — confidence has shot up for the Utes. Kyle Whittingham’s team is expected to rebound in large part because of a new offensive scheme led by coordinator Jason Beck and transfer quarterback Devon Dampier, who did some damage together at New Mexico last season.
“Underrated is where Utah thrives,” said Utes fan Boobie Hobbs. “Maybe the best O-line in the country paired with Whittingham’s defense almost spells out CFP.”
Neither SMU nor Louisville is favored to win the ACC title — Clemson is expected to run away with the league — but fans of those two teams are very confident in their head coaches.
“Rhett Lashlee is a brilliant young coach. The key to the season is how well Kevin Jennings has matured over the past year. I think he’s got it,” SMU fan Brian Curtiss said.
Said Louisville fan Will: “Trust in Jeff Brohm. He can do great things for Miller Moss. The duo of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson gives us one of the best backfields in the country. Defense gives me pause, but Brohm has the weapons to put up points.”
There’s no doubt Notre Dame fans are feeling really good, too, after a trip to the national championship game under Marcus Freeman. More than 900 Irish fans are hopeful, compared to 14 who are a little fearful after last season.
“Riding that Marcus Freeman train to the promised land,” Irish fan Thomas W. said. “Coaching and recruiting are only improving year-by-year.”
Biggest risers
If you’re looking for the biggest boosts in confidence from last season, look no further than Vanderbilt, Arizona State, Baylor, South Carolina, Illinois, Florida and BYU.
All of those fan bases were at 50 percent or less in terms of hope last year and are now up well past the mid-80s.
“(Diego) Pavia has been running his mouth, but I believe we will be better than last year and a lot of the SEC, including teams on our schedule, will be worse,” Commodores fan Wayne Randolph said. “I have us winning every nonconference game and every home SEC game to go 8-4 and finish in the top 25 for our best season in years.”
Baylor’s strong finish to the 2024 season restored faith for a lot of Bears fans, who had seemingly lost hope following a 3-9 campaign in 2023.
“Dave Aranda is basically the ChatGPT of football,” Bears fan Christian wrote. “There might be some hallucinations from time to time, but he’s got a wealth of information in that brain of his, and smart coaches win football games.”
Illinois fans enjoyed last year’s run to 10 wins and believe there’s enough talent coming back to repeat and make a Playoff push like Indiana did last year. But it’s also mostly cautious optimism.
“Not sure the last time a season started with this much hype, but as a true Illinois fan, I am keeping my protective cup ready for the inevitable,” Chris said.
Somehow, BYU fans are keeping the faith even after losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff to Tulane in July amid a potential suspension.
“BYU has had recent success IN SPITE of Jake Ratzlaff and NOT BECAUSE of him,” Cougars fan Steve wrote. “He didn’t hurt BYU, so there’s that. But he was never a QB that could put the team on his shoulders and win the game. If the ceiling for (freshman Bear) Bachmeier is as high as we are led to believe, the team could be a lot of fun to watch.”
Biggest fallers
On the flip side, fans at Virginia Tech, Kentucky, NC State, Wisconsin, Arizona, Maryland, Cal and UCF lost a tremendous amount of faith in where things stand with their favorite teams.
The Hokies’ hope dropped by a whopping 72 percentage points (from 98 to 26) following Brent Key’s third season, which resulted in a 6-7 record.
“Brent Pry just doesn’t seem like the answer in Blacksburg,” Hokies fan Alex wrote. “The cultural fit for the school is perfect, but he doesn’t seem to know how to win close football games. Last year’s five one-score losses were a cruel gut punch to a team that had a ton of talent (even if we all know that Miami loss was on the officiating, not the coaching).”
Mark Stoops, meanwhile, enters his 13th season in Lexington coming off a 4-8 season — the second-worst of his tenure there.
“The Mark Stoops era hopefully becomes the Mark Stops (finally) era. He’s beyond checked out as coach and the fan base is checking out with him,” Wildcats fan Pete Gabbucci writes. “6-6 Belk Bowls aren’t cause for statues to be built for you when the playoffs field keeps expanding and INDIANA made it in already. Damn Hoosiers!”
Luke Fickell guided Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff in 2021, but his first two seasons in Madison have fallen short of expectations. Fans are tired of it.
“Can’t recruit, can’t coach, can’t manage. What can Fickell do?” Wisconsin fan William Brown wrote. “Was his CFP berth with the Bearcats just a fluke? We will most likely go 3-9 this year. Who keeps their jobs after having the three worst seasons and teams in college football and continues to do nothing about it?”
Other highlights from the Hope-O-Meter
(Comments lightly edited for length and clarity.)
• Christopher P., semi-optimistic Akron fan: “The team can’t get its grades up to an acceptable level, they’ve shown little improvement, and there’s a palpable feeling that if they do, kids will get poached to ‘better’ teams. But they’ve won two in a row against Kent State, and that’s what’s truly important.”
• Diesel, semi-optimistic Alabama fan: “(Kalen) DeBoer has one year to fix a four-loss opening season post-Nick Saban. No Mercy. Sweep the Leg.”
• John, pessimistic Arizona fan: “(Coach Brent) Brennan isn’t it.”
• JR, pessimistic Arkansas fan: “Why continue to be Charlie Brown kicking the football? This staff has shown no consistency in recruiting or on-field production.”
• Bob, optimistic Army fan: “We won’t be as good as last year, but I trust Jeff Monken to keep us competitive and maybe get to 10 wins yet again. Beat Navy!”
• David, wait-and-see Auburn fan: “Third year for (Hugh) Freeze. He has to produce or he’s gone.”
• Jim, optimistic Boise State fan: “The team wants to prove they were more than just a venue for Ashton Jeanty. They are going to play hard and win.”
• Thomas Hartnett, optimistic Boston College fan: “Bill O’Brien is a good coach who gets the culture at BC.”
• Tyler, optimistic Bowling Green fan: “Eddie. Freaking. George.”
• Beth, pessimistic Cal fan: “We are Charlie Brown in a world full of Lucy’s.”
• Adam L, optimistic Central Michigan fan: “Coach (Matt) Drinkall is hopium into my veins every time he speaks.”
• Mark, pessimistic Charlotte fan: “We’ve had one winning season in school history.”
• Jim, optimistic Cincinnati fan: “We’ll either improve or have a new coach.”
• Andrew, optimistic Clemson fan: “Best I’ve felt heading into a season since Trevor (Lawrence) was under center.”
• Mark Whelan, optimistic Colorado fan: “If Coach Prime stays healthy and the offensive line improves, the Buffs could win eight games this year.”
• Drake, optimistic Colorado State fan: “Last year in the Mountain West. Taking the conference title and Boise’s spot in the tourney.”
• Alex, optimistic Connecticut fan: “We won a bowl last year. Surely, we can’t fall back to Earth, right?”
• Mike, optimistic Duke fan: “Duke is back on the map. Two straight good coaching hires. Excited for (Darian) Mensah. I love the aggressive defense. Eight or nine wins would be a good outcome.”
• Emma Porter, optimistic Florida fan: “If (quarterback DJ) Lagway is healthy and starts all season, I think we have a deep playoff run. If not, I think it gets ugly. But I’m choosing to be hopeful.”
• Tom Bell, optimistic Florida State fan: “It can’t be worse than 2024. Can it?”
• Bon, optimistic Georgia fan: “Finally got receivers who catch, and Gunner (Stockton) is the next Stetson Bennett.”
• Chris, optimistic Georgia Tech fan: “Best chance in years to make a run for an ACC title!”
• Tim C., optimistic Houston fan: “We may not be the best team in the Big 12, but (Coach Willie) Fritz has us going in the right direction.”
• Ethan, optimistic Indiana fan: “Hard not to be optimistic with Coach Cig. He wins. Google him.”
• Chad, optimistic Iowa fan: “(Mark) Gronowski will win the Heisman and Iowa will make the playoffs. Air Iowa baby!”
• JD, optimistic Iowa State fan: “(Coach Matt) Campbell and (quarterback Rocco) Becht have an opportunity to build on a fantastic season. Some big shoes to fill at receiver, but Campbell always gets the most out of his guys.”
• Brett S., optimistic James Madison fan: “Year 2 of the (Bob) Chesney era. If you’re not fired up, then you’re probably not breathing.”
• Jack, optimistic Kansas fan: “This is the year we beat K-State (don’t check my prediction from last year).”
• Sarah Hancock, Kansas State fan: “WE WILL WIN THE BIG 12!”
• Adrien, pessimistic Kent State fan: “To put it simply, we’re not good. Hopefully, we get a win this season.”
• Chad R., optimistic LSU fan: “Brian Kelly had better do something with this roster. If he loses to Clemson, he needs to stay in South Carolina!”
• Brian, pessimistic Marshall fan: “They lost everybody from players to the coaches to the damn AD since last season.”
• Brian, pessimistic Maryland fan: “We need a new coach to inject some life into a dead program that can do no better than 6-6 every year. The DMV is chock full of talent and the results continue to be middle of the road.”
• Tom, optimistic Miami fan: “Carson Beck is being wildly disrespected and Miami is going to show up this season.”
• Veronica, optimistic Michigan fan: “I only need them to beat the Buckeyes, which is a given. We are in their heads.”
• Ross Lamerson, optimistic Michigan State fan: “Trusting the Jonathan Smith process and that Aidan Chiles will put it all together.”
• Marty, optimistic Minnesota fan: “If Drake Lindsay can play well, I think the ceiling for this team can be 10 wins.”
• Eric, pessimistic Mississippi State fan: “Bad last year, didn’t get better, brutal schedule.”
• Robert T., optimistic Missouri fan: “I think 10 wins are possible. But eight or nine is more realistic.”
• Casey, optimistic Missouri State fan: “Honestly, I’m just happy my alma mater has finally stepped up to the big stage.”
• Chris Napierkowski, optimistic Navy fan: “Potential Heisman candidate in Blake Horvath, many returning players and a favorable schedule. Navy can certainly make the CFP this season!”
• David, pessimistic NC State fan: “I’m on board with CJ Bailey, Hollywood Smothers and Noah Rogers on offense. The defense is a massive question mark and with all the changes on the staff over the offseason.”
• NTK, optimistic Nebraska fan: “The 90s are back.”
• Scott A, optimistic North Carolina fan: “Total program overhaul. Guy named Belichick.”
• Jonathan, pessimistic North Carolina fan: “70 new players, a coach who has never coached a college game, and endless distractions caused by the coach’s girlfriend don’t give me much hope for the season.”
• Tony, pessimistic North Texas fan: “Team constantly being raided by top five conferences. Hard to build anything.”
• Gavin, optimistic Northwestern fan: “I’m not over the moon, but I think 6-6 is a reasonable goal for Northwestern.”
• Max, optimistic Ohio fan: “I think we have a good roster. We’re coming off a MAC championship. So, maybe two MAC championships in a row?”
• Jason, optimistic Ohio State fan: “I’m optimistic to see if Ryan Day can reload like Nick Saban, and I think this year’s Ohio State has the potential to repeat as national champions.”
• Edward, optimistic Oklahoma fan: “We have the best QB in college football this year. I think we will make the Playoff.”
• Steve Jones, optimistic Ole Miss fan: “Lane Kiffin brought in fresh talent in the portal, and learned from last season’s mistakes.”
• Kyle, optimistic Oregon fan: “We have a lot of really great recruits and transfers who will make an immediate impact.”
• Mile, optimistic Oregon State fan: “After losing so many coaches and players before last year, we have a core group who want to be here. Excited for the Beavers to play so many teams we usually don’t play!”
• Doug, optimistic Penn State fan: “Only question mark is Drew Allar’s ability to manage big games.”
• Bill, optimistic Penn State fan: “It’s Natty time for my Nittany Lions. Bank it!”
• Jack, optimistic Pittsburgh fan: “Started 7-0 before the offense was crushed by injuries. Two returning All-Americans.”
• Dave, optimistic Rutgers fan: “Coach Schiano gives me hope every season.”
• Frank, optimistic Sam Houston fan: “Don’t think 10-2 is on the table again, but could see them sneaking their way into a bowl game, and in FBS that’s a good outcome for a school still getting their legs under them.”
• MJH, pessimistic San Diego State fan: “The new head coach, Sean Lewis, is basically the ShamWow sales guy: Talk a mile a minute to try and sell his thing to both the players and the fans — ‘Aztec Fast’ — and it just doesn’t work. There’s no substance to the coach, his philosophy, or his style of play. The buyout can’t shrink soon enough!”
• Landon, optimistic Stanford fan: “Andrew Luck is bringing the intellectual brutality culture back. Run the damn ball.”
• David Jacobs, optimistic Syracuse fan: “The schedule is brutal. But in Fran Brown I trust!”
• Charlie, optimistic TCU fan: “Josh Hoover is the man.”
• John, pessimistic Tennessee fan: “Vols Twitter, is a perennial cesspool of despair, even when we have legit talent. With Nico (Iamaleava) out, I foresee a frustrated Vols fan base and misdirected ire toward (coach Josh) Heupel.”
• Joe, optimistic Texas fan: “Excited, but worried about the hype.”
• Mark, optimistic Texas A&M fan: “Marcel Madness. Taurean York is a first-team All-American. Gig ’Em!”
• Jon, optimistic Texas Tech fan: “Money talks, baby.”
• Brandon, optimistic Texas Tech fan: “Being rich is fun. Win some football games this fall (10+) and keep the momentum going against these historic ‘blue blood’ programs. Wreck ’em!”
• Jonathan F., optimistic Tulane fan: “Get thru Ole Miss and let’s roll (Wave)!”
• Brett S., pessimistic UAB coach: “I fear that Trent Dilfer is a lame duck coach and this team is not ready to compete.”
• Alex, optimistic UCF fan: “Gus is gone! Thank goodness. Can’t get worse than run-it-up-the-middle Gus.”
• Ryan, optimistic UCLA fan: “Massive upgrade at QB, then who knows what’s going on anywhere else.”
• Dylan E., optimistic UNLV fan: “Dan Mullen, big names in the transfer portal, and a bright future!”
• Deion Moore, pessimistic USC fan: “We are like a rutterless ship. The Lincoln Riley era has been full of false hope and broken dreams.”
• Shane Hall, optimistic Utah State fan: “Coach Mendenhall is a great coach and a great fit at Utah State. If we’re not bowling this year, I’m certain we will be next!”
• Regis P., pessimistic UTEP fan: “College athletics come to die in El Paso.”
• Will, optimistic Wake Forest fan: “Wake’s record won’t be great. But we have a new coach and better vibes.”
• Nathan, optimistic Washington fan: “Jedd Fisch has rebuilt the roster, rebuilt the coaching staff and appears to be running a highly organized program. The program appears to be hitting on all cylinders again.”
• Butch, pessimistic Washington State fan: “How can you win when you’re treated like a farm team by the system?”
• Jim, optimistic West Virginia fan: “I’m not sure that 70-plus transfers and a retread head coach hoping to return the glory days will work, but it’s more exciting than another year of the same frustrations under Neal Brown.”
• CP Campbell, optimistic Western Kentucky fan: “WKU always seems to get the most out of Coach (Tyson) Helton’s offense and they have a knack for finding gunslinging QBs hiding under rocks.”
• Steve, pessimistic Wyoming fan: “Small market team with next to no chance to compete with the big schools.”
• Jim Harris, optimistic Wyoming fan: “If you aren’t optimistic as a Cowboys supporter, then what’s the point? Better to be disappointed than not to dream.”
(Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; Icon Sportswire / Getty, James Gilbert / Getty)