Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Western Illinois @ Illinois -26.5 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Peacock

I’m pretty surprised to see this number come in below 4 touchdowns, because this game is going to get out of hand in a hurry. Obviously Illinois is the vastly superior team here, and I think their offense should find the end zone on every possession where the starters are in. Western allowed 39.8 PPG to FCS opponents last season which is bad, like really bad, and things weren’t even close in their two meetings with FBS programs.

Northern Illinois hung 54 and Indiana put 77 on them to open last season, most importantly holding leads of 31 and 39 points at halftime, respectively. Illinois is in a similar spot to Indiana from last year, needing to prove themselves as an under-the-radar team, and their offense also needs to get tuned up in this game. The Illini are breaking in a whole new receiving corps, so I expect Luke Altmeyer to be throwing early and often, which means they’ll run it up in the first half and cover this number before coasting late.

 

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Auburn/Baylor Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

I just think both of these offenses are primed for big seasons, and facing each other should produce fireworks. Hugh Freeze going into year 3 at Auburn should mean he finally has the pieces he wants on offense which is his specialty, and transfer QB Jackson Arnold has plenty of talent and will be operating behind an elite offensive line. That should allow the Tigers to shred what was never a good defense for Baylor, especially in the secondary which did not improve at all from last season when they really struggled.

But I’m a Sawyer Robertson believer for the Bears, and they’re bringing back their top two running backs and wide receivers. I think that helps Baylor pick up right where they left off in averaging 39.9 PPG the last 7 games of 2024, and tangling with the shootout-prone SEC here should produce a lot of points in my opinion.

 

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) UNLV/Sam Houston Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on CBSSN

In this situation it’s a distrust of the defenses that has me expecting points, not to mention an assist from the conditions. The heat and humidity in Houston tonight will wear out defenders from units that are already struggling this season, as both had big issues on the defensive side of the ball in their Week 0 games. Particularly UNLV who had a terrible look in giving up 31 points to FCS Idaho State, a performance that would’ve been even worse if they hadn’t been gifted 4 turnovers.

But with Dan Mullen coaching the Rebels, offense won’t be an issue, not against a Sam Houston team that gave up 41 last week. The Bearkats were torched through the air, so Anthony Colandrea should find his rhythm tonight, and might need to in a shootout situation. I think dynamic dual-threat QB Hunter Watson really gets going in this one against a Rebels defense that is embarrassingly bad, especially as he looks to bounce back from a poor passing game. There should be plenty of up-tempo offense that wears out poor defenses tonight, and that has me looking to the over.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on AppleTV+

Castellanos had to watch from the bench last night as his teammates put up 19 runs with the help of 4 homers by Kyle Schwarber, so he must be itching to get in on the action. Maybe tonight is his turn to send one or more into the cheap seats considering he’s 4-for-8 lifetime against Braves starter Bryce Elder, with all 4 of those hits going over the fence. He also loves seeing Atlanta, as he has a .400 average and 1.017 OPS against them this season, his best of any opponent. So while the Phillies as a whole will experience some regression from hanging 19 runs, I think Castellanos is in a good position to join the fun tonight.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers Alt Team Total Over 5.5 (+145; Odds via Fanduel): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The standard team total for the Dodgers tonight of 4.5 is juiced a little bit too much to the over for my liking, so I’ll take a shot at this alternate number. With 26 runs in their past 4 games, LA is seemingly back in form at the plate, and I think that continues tonight against favorable pitching matchups. Zac Gallen starting for Arizona could spell trouble right away as the Dodgers have good numbers against him, and they lead the league in runs scored against righties.

Gallen has a 5.07 ERA on the road this season and the Dodgers put up 8 runs in his lone start against them back in May. Plus, that combustible Arizona bullpen is due to get knocked around by this elite lineup, so with an attractive price attached I’m hopping on this alt over tonight.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-12 (+2.38 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.