Okay, so maybe none of us experts know what the hell we’re talking about.

Arch Manning is going to win the Heisman? Alabama and Baylor are College Football Playoff teams? What genius said that?

Making preseason predictions in college football in the era of the transfer portal is dangerous. You can find yourself on Freezing Cold Takes faster than it took the Gus Bus to run over Kalen DeBoer.

But we’re not scared here at Oddly Specific. We keep shooting our shots. And as I told you last week, I hit my target about 68 percent of the time.

If you remember our format, we always begin our weekly picks by attempting to nail down a few stat stuffers. Let’s dive in.

Most passing yards

Austin Simmons’ first start produced a 63-7 win over Georgia State for Ole Miss. He threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. The 20th-ranked Rebels play Saturday at Kentucky, which gave up 270 yards through the air in a 24-16 win over Toledo. Simmons throws for 370-plus yards against the Wildcats, and Ole Miss gets revenge for last year’s loss to Kentucky by covering the 10.5-point spread.

Most rushing yards

There are not a lot of running backs who receive heavy workloads in college football anymore. Minnesota’s Darius Taylor, Wyoming’s Sam Scott, Stanford’s Micah Ford and Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson were the only backs who received 25 or more carries in Week 1. My best guess to lead all FBS rushers in Week 2 is Washington’s Jonah Coleman, who ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries in a 38-21 win over Colorado State last Saturday. Washington hosts UC Davis, an FCS program coming off an 11-3 season and a Week 1 win over Utah Tech. Coleman leads the Huskies with 200-plus yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in a 14-point win.

Most receiving yards

Reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State enters Saturday night’s game at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite against last year’s SEC cellar dwellers. Star receiver Jordyn Tyson was targeted 17 times in the Sun Devils’ 38-19 win over Northern Arizona last week. He caught 12 of those passes for 141 yards and two scores. That felt like a bit much to get past an FCS opponent. This week, Tyson will catch 15 passes for 200-plus yards and two scores to help Kenny Dillingham’s team escape Starkville with a three-point win.

Jordyn Tyson. You are ridiculous! 2026 WR1 pic.twitter.com/RCPfG2iWG6

— Ray G (@RayGQue) August 31, 2025

Five big gamesNo. 11 Illinois (-2.5) at Duke

Darian Mensah completed nearly 80 percent of his attempts for 389 yards and three touchdowns in the Blue Devils’ 28-point win over Elon last week. Illinois isn’t Elon. The Illini have a veteran secondary, and Duke’s running game is average at best. Illinois controls the clock and the game, and Mensah throws a pair of picks in an 11-point Illinois road win.

Iowa at No. 16 Iowa State (-2.5)

The road team has won the Cy-Hawk Trophy in each of the last five meetings (the game was not played in 2020), with Iowa winning six straight in Ames. Mark Gronowski, however, threw for only 44 yards in Iowa’s 34-7 win over Albany last week. That’s not good enough to beat these Cyclones. Rocco Becht throws for 200-plus yards and accounts for three scores as Iowa State covers the spread to make it a two-year winning streak in the series.

Kansas at Missouri (-6.5)

The 121st meeting of the Border Showdown — a series being played for the first time since 2011 — features a Jayhawks squad that outscored its first two opponents 77-14 with more than 1,000 yards of offense. Jalon Daniels looked good against Fresno State and Wagner. This time, however, he’s facing an SEC defense. Beau Pribula throws for 300-plus yards, accounts for three touchdowns and Missouri covers the spread.

South Florida at No. 13 Florida (-17.5)

Alex Golesh’s team had one of the most impressive wins of the opening weekend, cruising past Boise State 34-7 in Tampa. Elusive quarterback Byrum Brown can be a headache to stop and looked good in his first start in 11 months following a leg injury. The only real problem for the Bulls last week was missed tackles (19). DJ Lagway will throw for 250-plus passing yards and account for three TDs, and Florida won’t make the same mistakes Boise did (three fumbles lost) in an 11-point win for the Gators.

No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma (-2.5)

Quarterbacks Bryce Underwood and John Mateer didn’t disappoint in their debuts last week. The difference here is that Underwood is set to make his second career start, and Mateer is in his third season in offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle’s system. Underwood puts up 200-plus yards of offense and one score but turns it over twice, while Mateer protects the football (no turnovers), totals 300-plus yards and two scores in a seven-point Oklahoma win.

Upset alertBaylor at No. 17 SMU (-2.5)

Auburn’s Jackson Arnold was tough to contain for Baylor’s defense in the opener, and SMU coach Rhett Lashlee’s teams usually know how to run the ball. But the Mustangs have lost 13 straight games to Baylor, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns last week. Baylor runs the ball more with Bryson Washington (150-plus rushing yards), controls the clock and wins in Dallas by a touchdown.

Reader predictions

First of all, thank you for the more than 100 reader responses last week.

The best predictions:

Tom: Tommy Castellanos and Florida State upset Alabama.

Jack Mastrianni: Ohio State and Texas have only two passing touchdowns combined and defensive lines dominate the game.

William W.: Texas and Ohio State combine for less than twenty points, and nobody’s happy with how the game went.

The “not even close” prediction of the week:

Trey Rooney: Nebraska, Texas, Alabama, and Clemson all roll with HUGE wins. All cover the spread by 10-plus points.

Submit your Week 2 predictions below.

Week 1 report card

I didn’t hit any of my stat stuffers, and I went 6-3 on my weekly selections, with Miami salvaging my rough opening weekend by upsetting Notre Dame.

• First off, apologies to Mike Norvell, Gus Malzahn and the new-look Florida State Seminoles. I said Alabama’s Ty Simpson would make Kalen DeBoer look smart, accumulating 275-plus total yards of offense and three touchdowns in a comfortable 21-point Crimson Tide victory. Simpson had 271 yards of offense and threw two touchdowns, but Alabama’s defense got run over by The Gus Bus in a 31-17 defeat.

• Secondly, I’d like to send a fruit basket to Brian Kelly, Blake Baker and LSU. I predicted Clemson would roll up more than 400 yards and deliver yet another frustrating season-opening loss to the Tigers from Baton Rouge. Clemson produced just 13 first downs and was outgained 356-261 in a 17-10 LSU victory.

• The last game I got wrong was Georgia Tech at Colorado. Instead of throwing a late pick to help the Buffaloes emerge with a win, as I called for, Tech QB Haynes King scored on a 45-yard run with 1:07 left to play to lift the Yellow Jackets to a 27-20 win.

• Auburn went on the road and won at Baylor, 38-24, with Jackson Arnold doing most of the damage with his legs instead of his arm. I said Arnold would throw a TD pass to Cam Coleman late to clinch it. It was a 27-yard TD run by Arnold that did it.

• Arch Manning didn’t throw for 250-plus passing yards and two touchdowns, and Jeremiah Smith didn’t have eight catches for 110-plus receiving yards and two touchdowns. But Texas and Ohio State played a defensive struggle through the first half as I called for, with the Buckeyes eventually pulling out a 14-7 win.

• I predicted Dylan Raiola would have his most prolific day as a passer to lead all FBS quarterbacks in Week 1 with 370 passing yards and three touchdowns, helping Nebraska cover a 6.5-point spread over Cincinnati. Nebraska won, but didn’t cover, and Raiola completed 33 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns — more yards than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik but not nearly the most among FBS passers. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson led all FBS passers with 419 passing yards and three touchdowns in the loss I correctly forecasted to Auburn.

• I called for Toledo’s Junior Vandeross III to lead all FBS receivers with 11 catches for 185 yards and two touchdowns in what I expected to be a shootout victory for Kentucky. The Wildcats beat the preseason MAC favorites, 24-16, and Vandeross finished with seven catches for 88 yards and one score. San Jose State’s Danny Scudero led all receivers with 189 yards on nine catches in a 16-14 loss to Central Michigan.

• New Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy ran for 100 yards and one touchdown in his debut for the Tigers in a 61-6 blowout victory over Central Arkansas. But he didn’t lead all FBS rushers like I said he would. Troy’s Tae Meadows did with 186 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries in a 38-20 win over Nicholls State.

(Photo of Rocco Becht: Reese Strickland / Imagn Images)