Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is in the books and several teams considered championship contenders got off to rough starts. One of those clubs is the Kansas City Chiefs, who appeared in five of the last six Super Bowls – including each of the past three – and won three times.
Kansas City opened the campaign in Sao Paulo, Brazil, where it dropped a 27-21 decision to the Los Angeles Chargers. With the loss, the Chiefs find themselves in a very unfamiliar spot – last place in the division, which Kansas City has ruled since 2016. The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders joined the Chargers with Week 1 victories, giving them an early edge over the nine-time defending AFC West champions.
The Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans also began 2025 with defeats. All three clubs captured division titles last year, with the Lions earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a franchise-best 15-2 record. Baltimore squandered a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and was edged 41-40 by the Buffalo Bills, Detroit was dominated 27-13 by the Green Bay Packers and Houston dropped a 14-9 decision to the Los Angeles Rams.
Baltimore and Buffalo entered the season as the top AFC teams to win Super Bowl LX at most of the major sportsbooks. The Ravens were favored at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills held that distinction at Caesars Sportsbook and the teams were co-favorites at both DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook.
But as a result of Buffalo’s comeback victory in Week 1, the Bills now are favored slightly to win the Super Bowl at all four sportsbooks with odds ranging from +500 to +650. Baltimore is a close second (from +600 to +700), while Kansas City still is third among AFC teams (+1000 to +1200).
The reigning Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles, who were the preseason favorites among NFC to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy, kicked off the campaign with a 24-20 triumph over the Dallas Cowboys to remain the sportsbooks’ top choice from the conference with odds around +700. However, the Packers closed the gap with their impressive win over the Lions, as they are +850 at FanDuel and DraftKings and +900 at BetMGM and Caesars.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Bills have the best chance at winning the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. The model sees Buffalo celebrating at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Cal. in February in more than 23% of its simulations. It has the Packers capturing the championship more than 15% of the time, the Eagles repeating in nearly 15% of simulations and the Ravens winning their third title in 14.5%.
As far as making the playoffs, the model believes the Bills (99.3%) and Ravens (90.8%) are virtual locks in the AFC, while the Chargers (71.6%), Broncos (71.5%) and Indianapolis Colts (68.4%) are very good bets. It also sees the Pittsburgh Steelers (63.3%) and Chiefs (62.3%) getting in the majority of the time.
The top teams to qualify for the postseason in the NFC, according to the proven model, are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (92.5%), Packers (92.4%) and Eagles (88.6%). The Washington Commanders (74.1%) and San Francisco 49ers (72.1%) also are good bets, while the Minnesota Vikings (63.7%) reach the playoffs in the majority of the simulations. The Los Angeles Rams (55.1%) have the inside track over the Lions (50.6%) for the final berth in the conference.Â
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, continues to crunch the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has adjusted its projections on each team’s playoff probability after Week 1’s games, as well as their chances to win the division, the conference and the Super Bowl. Based on the odds being offered at the top sportsbooks, there is value to be had.Â
Below, we’ll take a look at the model’s five biggest movers in both directions in each conference, regarding their chances to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.
Model’s top five rising AFC teams in playoff projections
TEAM
PRESEASON
AFTER WEEK 1
DIFFERENCE
Indianapolis Colts
39.9%
68.4%
+28.5%
Denver Broncos
59.1%
71.5%
+12.4%
Las Vegas Raiders
13.9%
26.2%
+12.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers
52.8%
63.3%
+10.5%
Los Angeles Chargers
61.6%
71.6%
+10.0%
Model’s top five declining AFC teams in playoff projectionsModel’s top five rising AFC teams in Super Bowl projections
TEAM
PRESEASON
AFTER WEEK 1
DIFFERENCE
Buffalo Bills
20.3%
23.6%
+3.3%
Los Angeles Chargers
1.5%
2.4%
+0.9%
Denver Broncos
2.2%
2.9%
+0.7%
Indianapolis Colts
0.2%
0.8%
+0.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.8%
2.0%
+0.2%
Model’s top five declining AFC teams in Super Bowl projections
TEAM
PRESEASON
AFTER WEEK 1
DIFFERENCE
Baltimore Ravens
17.6%
14.5%
-3.1%
Kansas City Chiefs
4.2%
2.8%
-1.4%
Houston Texans
1.2%
0.7%
-0.5%
1.1%
0.9%
-0.2%
Miami Dolphins
0.3%
0.1%
-0.2%
Model’s top five rising NFC teams in playoff projections
TEAM
PRESEASON
AFTER WEEK 1
DIFFERENCE
Washington Commanders
59.0%
74.1%
+15.1%
Green Bay Packers
82.0%
92.4%
+10.4%
San Francisco 49ers
62.0%
72.1%
+10.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
83.6%
92.5%
+8.9%
Minnesota Vikings
55.4%
63.7%
+8.3%
Model’s top five declining NFC teams in playoff projectionsModel’s top five rising NFC teams in Super Bowl projections
TEAM
PRESEASON
AFTER WEEK 1
DIFFERENCE
Green Bay Packers
9.9%
15.4%
+5.5%
Washington Commanders
2.9%
4.1%
+1.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4.0%
4.7%
+0.7%
Minnesota Vikings
1.6%
2.1%
+0.5%
Dallas Cowboys
0.1%
0.2%
+0.1%
Model’s top five declining NFC teams in Super Bowl projections
TEAM
PRESEASON
AFTER WEEK 1
DIFFERENCE
Detroit Lions
8.0%
3.4%
-4.6%
Philadelphia Eagles
18.4%
14.8%
-3.6%
Seattle Seahawks
0.7%
0.4%
-0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
-0.1%
Chicago Bears
0.2%
0.1%
-0.1%
Atlanta Falcons
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
While -380 at DraftKings on the Packers to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model’s projection of 92.4%, a bettor still has to wager $380 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Steelers and Colts.
We’ll take a closer look at three of the model’s top plays to make the 2025 NFL postseason.
1. Indianapolis Colts (+165, BetMGM)Playoff probability model projection: 68.4%
The AFC South arguably is the weakest division in the conference, and the Colts gave their fans a reason to be optimistic they can win their first division title since 2014. Head coach Shane Steichen’s preseason decision to give Daniel Jones the nod over Anthony Richardson for the starting quarterback job paid immediate dividends in Week 1.
Selected sixth overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, Jones requested and received his release from the New York Giants last November after a little over five largely unsuccessful seasons and spent the remainder of the year with the Minnesota Vikings but did not see any game action. The 28-year-old Duke product signed a one-year contract with Indianapolis in March and, after beating out Richardson, guided the Colts to a season-opening 33-8 rout of the the Miami Dolphins.
Jones completed 22-of-29 pass attempts for 272 yards and a touchdown while also running for a pair of scores. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ defense sacked Tua Tagovailoa three times and limited the Dolphins to 211 total yards while keeping them out of the end zone until the latter stages of the fourth quarter. The Colts, who have gone four seasons without a playoff appearance, have a solid chance to end that drought if Jones continues to perform at a high level and they can win a large share of their divisional games.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+118, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 63.3%
The Steelers have reached the postseason 12 times during Mike Tomlin’s first 18 seasons as head coach and did so each of the last two years with several unspectacular quarterbacks and an aging Russell Wilson. Even though Aaron Rodgers is long in the tooth, the four-time NFL MVP showed in his team debut last weekend he still has some gas in the tank.
Facing a New York Jets team for which he spent the previous two seasons, Rodgers came up with an impressive performance, completing 73.3% of his pass attempts (22-of-30) for 244 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. It was the 28th time in Rodgers’ career he threw at least four touchdowns and no picks, tying him with the legendary Tom Brady for most in NFL history.
Pittsburgh’s schedule features some heavy hitters, including Green Bay, Buffalo and Detroit – as well as the usual two meetings each with Baltimore and Cincinnati, so making the playoffs certainly is not a foregone conclusion. But if Rodgers can avoid injury and play well on a consistent basis, the Steelers very well could evade the first sub-.500 season of Tomlin’s tenure and make their fifth postseason appearance in six years.
3. Minnesota Vikings (-112, FanDuel)Playoff probability model projection: 63.7%
The Vikings made a tremendous turnaround last season, finishing with a 14-3 record after going 7-10 in 2023 and missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. After six unspectacular campaigns with three different teams, Sam Darnold had a breakout campaign as he was fifth in the NFL in both passing yards (4,319) and touchdown tosses (35).
However, Darnold did not perform well down the stretch for Minnesota, which allowed him to sign a lucrative free-agent contract with Seattle in the offseason. That decision cleared the way for the beginning of the J.J. McCarthy era in Minneapolis.
Selected 10th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft right after leading Michigan to the national championship, McCarthy’s rookie season was over before it started as he suffered a knee injury during training camp. The 22-year-old made his long-awaited professional debut in Week 1 against Chicago and struggled over the first three quarters before breaking out in the fourth.
With the Vikings trailing 17-6, McCarthy led the club to touchdowns on three straight possessions, throwing for scores on the first two drives before rushing 14 yards with 2:53 remaining for what proved to be the decisive touchdown.Â
Three teams from the NFC North made the playoffs last campaign, so the prospects of Minnesota making its second straight appearance are solid, especially since Detroit lost its opener and is expected to take a step backward. The Vikings’ chances ultimately will depend on the play of McCarthy, who should have no shortage of confidence after his accomplishments in the final quarter of his first NFL game.