Saquon Barkley (still) seeking big play vs. Chiefs
Last season, Saquon Barkley led the NFL with 46 explosive runs (10+ yards) and ranked seventh among running backs with a 13.3% explosive run rate. He hit 20+ miles per hour a whopping 11 times on rushes, more than double Derrick Henry‘s total in second place (five). However, in Super Bowl LIX against Kansas City, Barkley had just one explosive run (for exactly 10 yards) and zero carries with a max speed of 20+ mph. It was easily his least efficient game of the year, with -48 rush yards over expected, a 16% success rate and -12.5 EPA on rushes (all season lows for Barkley, including playoffs). Now, it’s worth noting, Barkley had six catches for 40 yards in the Super Bowl, so he still found ways to contribute to the Eagles’ victory. But the Chiefs apparently found an answer to his dominance on the ground (one of the only answers they found in that game).
Fast forward to last weekend. On Thursday night, Barkley logged three explosive runs against the Cowboys, but he also finished with -2.1 rush EPA and averaged -0.1 yards before contact per carry — his lowest mark as an Eagle. Meanwhile, on Friday night, the Chiefs allowed just two explosive rushes to the Chargers — one was an 11-yard run by Omarion Hampton and the other was a scramble by Justin Herbert. Hampton averaged -1.7 RYOE per carry against Kansas City, which was fourth-worst among qualified running backs. It’s early, but the Chiefs run defense looks like it’s picked up right where it left off in the Super Bowl.
Fantasy Fallout: You’re never benching Saquon Barkley, but if you’re setting expectations or considering him as a DFS play, be wary in this matchup. Also, if Barkley has another “dud” (by his standards) it might be time to consider trading him. Running backs coming off a year with his 2024 volume (378 touches) historically regress quite a bit the following season.