In this column, I flag potential trends that might matter. It could be a hidden tight end climbing a depth chart. Maybe a veteran receiver proving he’s still got it.

I aim to help you spot trends before your competition, hopefully leading you to this year’s league-winning pick(up). I won’t always be right, but you’ll always be early to the trend. As usual, I’ll share the results three weeks later.

We’ve finally seen some football, so it’s time to review prior takes. 

The first two editions of this column had a few misses and some hits. The biggest takeaway I had was to trust last year’s tape more than offseason training camp hype. 

Pass on De’Von Achane’s first-round ADP. ✅
Overdraft Emeka Egbuka. ✅ ✅ ✅
Cooper Kupp could surprise. ❌
Keenan Allen is still an elite receiver. ✅
Braelon Allen could be the Jets’ top runner. ❌
Harold Fannin: A top late-round target at TE after flashing as the Browns’ No. 2 option. ✅ ✅

As for this week … 

Unless otherwise noted, all stats are tailored to redraft, PPR, 1-QB leagues.

We should probably overreact to rookie receivers’ Week 1 performance

I began working on this column after seeing Luther Burden dropped in multiple leagues. I didn’t expect Burden’s role to grow until at least after Chicago’s Week 5 bye, because Olamide Zaccheaus is a strong fit in Ben Johnson’s slot role. With Burden as one of my favorite late-round picks, I wanted to write this column urging you to add him (and target other underperforming rookie receivers, like Matthew Golden, Jayden Higgins and even Travis Hunter). 

Unfortunately, I can’t write the column I wanted to, since the data doesn’t back it up. I expected to find that, despite slow Week 1 starts, receivers drafted in the top 40 of the NFL draft tended to bounce back significantly and provide league-winning upside in the second half. 

Take Justin Jefferson. His Week 1 NFL debut ended with three targets and two receptions on 26 routes run. He saw a mediocre 12.0 percent target share and just 10 air yards on those two catches. I remember declining to add him off waivers before Week 2. But Jefferson wasn’t much better in his second game, running just 19 routes, catching three targets for 44 yards. He played just 53.7 percent of the Vikings’ snaps, and was listed on multiple cut lists across the internet. 

And this is Justin f—ing Jefferson! In Week 3, he went from a first-round disappointment to an All-World receiver, catching 7 of 9 targets for 175 yards and a touchdown. He was immediately the No. 1, league-winning waiver add for 2020. He was a value no matter how much FAAB you spent and finished as the PPR WR6. 

I want you to add the next Justin Jefferson in Week 2, the week before his breakout. 

The problem is that, outside of exceptions like Jefferson, Week 1 is often surprisingly predictive of a rookie receiver’s first season. Since 2015, only 16 receivers drafted in the top 40 finished their Week 1 debut with 10-plus PPR points (16 receivers drafted later topped that mark). Here’s the list, along with where they finished that season:

Sixteen receivers scored 10-plus PPR points in Week 1, and 13 of them finished the season with an average above that mark. That’s an 81.3% hit rate, and great news for my guy Emeka Egbuka, who had the best Week 1 start among receivers since 2020. It’s also positive for Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the only other receiver with 10-plus PPR points, who should be peppered with targets so long as Jalen Coker is out. 

On the other end of the spectrum, should we be concerned about Burden (9 routes, 1 target), Matthew Golden (who has just 3.6 PPR points across two games), Jayden Higgins (5.2 points in Week 1) or Travis Hunter, who narrowly missed the cutoff (9.3 points)?

Mildly, absolutely. While Jefferson disappointed, this is the bottom of the list of Week 1 performances by other top-40 picks:

Calvin Ridley: 38 routes run, 2 targets, 0 receptions
Elijah Moore: 36 routes run, 4 targets, 1 reception
Marvin Harrison Jr.: 36 routes run, 3 targets, 1 reception
Nelson Agholor: 42 routes run, 2 targets, 1 reception
Ja’Lynn Polk: 18 routes, 1 target, 1 reception
Kadarius Toney: 4 routes, 2 targets, 2 receptions
Josh Doctson: 9 routes, 1 target, 1 reception

The obvious question: How do you sort the Jeffersons from the Agholors? Well, you wait until at least Week 3. After Week 3, Harrison had jumped to 10th in rookie receiver fantasy points per game (15.9), Jefferson was 13th (14.2) and a disappointment like Corey Davis dropped to 29th (7.2). 

A quick check of the leaderboards since 2015 confirms this: 

The five worst receivers after Week 3

Curtis Samuel (1.7 PPG)
Kadarius Toney (1.8 PPG)
Zay Jones (2.3 PPG)
Quentin Johnston (2.5 PPG)
Nelson Agholor (2.5 PPG)

The five best receivers after Week 3

Malik Nabers (22.7 PPG)
Ja’Marr Chase (19.0 PPG)
Calvin Ridley (18.7 PPG)
Marquise Brown (18.1 PPG)
Amari Cooper (17.7 PPG)

By their third game, the signal starts to overpower the noise. So while it’s unlikely any of Golden, Hunter, Burden or Higgins is this year’s Justin Jefferson, we won’t know until Week 3. For now, don’t treat your rookie receivers like Agoholor treats footballs. Hang onto them.

(Photo of Emeka Egbuka: Brett Davis / Imagn Images)