Dan Johnson breaks down his top player prop bets for Sunday’s Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots game on NFL Week 2.
Miami arrives home in a tight spread with the market leaning slightly their way, but the matchup is about usage, not vibes. New England’s structure squeezes volume to specific routes and forces quarterbacks to be patient.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 2 NFL game between the Dolphins and the Patriots.
Jaylen Waddle u4.5 total receptions (-125)
Waddle’s Week 1 usage told you everything: 76.2% route share through three quarters, but only a 16.7% target share with a 1.3 aDOT and a sub-20% first-read rate. That’s manufactured-touch territory, not high-volume alpha. New England lived in single-high last week (74.4%) and, against that structure, Tua historically funnels throws to Hill—Hill posted a 34% targets-per-route vs single-high last year while Waddle’s per-route demand dips when Miami wants to press vertical stress. Add a shoulder tag on Waddle and a Dolphins line shuffling the right side, and the quick game becomes even more Hill-centric with tight end relief, not ten Waddle slants.
The Patriots also allowed mid-pack efficiency to perimeter WRs last week (17th in PPR points per target), which is code for “they rally and tackle.” That trades explosives for slog and turns five-yard catch-and-falls into three-and-outs. If Miami hits explosives, they’ll come off Hill motion and play-action crossers; if they don’t, Miami’s pass rate still skews to first reads and running back check-downs when protection blinks. Either way, Waddle needs five clean wins in a scheme that just gave him a 1.3 aDOT and funneled air yards elsewhere. With the book hanging 4.5, you’re fading the name and backing the role.
De’Von Achane u14.5 total rushing attempts (-125)
Miami’s Week 1 pass rate sat at 67.4% (second-highest), and the offense owned the ball for only 21:17, last in the league. That combination caps raw carry counts even before you model splits. Achane logged seven rushes last week and remains the space-player in this backfield, with short-yardage and goal-line still leaning to a committee with change-ups. Achane’s touches skew to explosives and wheel routes, not 18 between-the-tackles tries. The trenches push this way, too: right guard James Daniels hit IR and right tackle Austin Jackson is dinged, a double hit on run-blocking continuity that shows up most on standard-down inside runs.
Miami also finished last season near the bottom in short-yard success (51% on 3rd-and-short) and red-zone rush success (32%), which nudges McDaniel to RPO and quick-game calls when the box tightens instead of pounding the count to 15+. New England’s pressure rate was only 16% in Week 1, but Vrabel’s fronts play sound fits and force you to string drives—death to carry volume when Miami’s identity is motion, spacing, and speed. Game state won’t necessarily rescue the over either: a modest spread with drive volatility keeps Miami in the “best-play wins” mindset, not an old-school bleed. 14.5 is a hefty ask for a player who routinely lands 8–13 in neutral scripts. We’re under, here.