Conference play is finally arriving with all three top-25 matchups this week taking place between conference opponents. There’s a good diversity of the big games, too, with three different conferences represented in those matchups.
If you only tune in to college football to watch big programs go up against one another, this may not be the week for you. Texas Tech at Utah is a top-20 matchup for the ball-knowers while Illinois and Indiana meet in a big one in the Big Ten (it’s hard to believe that one has the stakes it does).
There are big-name teams looking to return to the upper ranks of the sport facing off on Saturday. Auburn goes to Oklahoma while Michigan travels to Nebraska. Those are all programs you would mention among the top 15 or 20 (if not much higher) when talking about historical success, but weren’t near that last year (or for the last several years for Auburn and Nebraska).
More on those matchups and others below, but first let’s look at how our staff is picking Week 4’s biggest games against the spread (picks standings at the bottom):
All games listed are on Saturday, and times are Eastern.
Early window: Texas schools take the spotlight
No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah — noon on FOX
SMU at TCU — noon on ESPN2
The eyes of college football fans will be upon Texas schools this week, but it’s not the Longhorns that will be worth watching (they play Sam Houston and are favored by 40 points). Texas Tech has a big early Big-12 showdown at Utah, and the Battle for the Iron Skillet takes place in Fort Worth between SMU and TCU.
Texas Tech has been a trendy sleeper pick this season, and the hype around the Red Raiders has gradually gotten louder. Some NIL investment plus a strong transfer class led to the Red Raiders cracking the preseason polls. Three games in and Tech looks the part. The Red Raiders have won three games by an average of 46.3 points, although those came against teams with a combined zero wins against FBS opposition.
Utah will be a stark upgrade in competition. Kyle Whittingham has built one of the most consistently difficult teams to play. The Utes have finished ranked in six of the last 11 seasons and appear to be solid again after a shocking 5-7 record last year. Utah has been known for its stout defenses and appears to have another one. The Utes have given up a total of 25 points in three games.
Predicting the Big 12 race in September feels like a fool’s errand, but as things appear now, you could argue these teams have looked like the two best in the conference.
TCU vs. SMU sounds like it should be a Big 12 game, but it isn’t. The Horned Frogs ruined the Bill Belichick party at North Carolina just as it was getting started (and actually beat the Tar Heels by more than they beat Abilene Christian) and are favored by nearly a touchdown in this one.
This rivalry has seen well over 100 meetings with a number of streaks along the way. SMU won 15 straight from 1972-1986 while TCU won 17 of 19 from 1999-2018. SMU won last year’s meeting with an absurd 66-42 score.
Late afternoon window: Programs on the rebound
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma — 3:30 p.m. on ABC
Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss — 3:30 p.m. on ESPN
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska — 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Four of these teams (Auburn, Oklahoma, Michigan, Nebraska) are traditionally strong programs coming off down years (or more extended down periods). That means whichever teams win will get some credit, but with some lingering doubts about the quality of the opposition.
Auburn has a 14-point win at Baylor, and OU beat Michigan, so both teams appear improved this year, but just how improved remains to be seen. The Tigers have lost seven games in each of the past four seasons. OU has gone 6-7 in two of the past three years. You can be forgiven for not fully buying in on either yet.
OU’s John Mateer is one of the most fun quarterbacks in the country and has emerged as an early Heisman favorite. Going from Jackson Arnold to Mateer has reinvigorated the Sooners’ offense.
What’s that? Arnold is now the starter at Auburn and is returning to Norman? Oh, well that’s fun. Arnold, a five-star recruit who endured a miserable 2024 season that saw him get benched at one point, has eight total touchdowns with no turnovers. Surely, he would love to get a statement win in his old home.
Michigan is still looking for a quality win after that loss in Oklahoma a couple weeks ago. The Wolverines will be without coach Sherrone Moore, who is suspended and not even able to coach at practices this week. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood rushed for 114 yards and two touchdowns last week against Central Michigan. Will he showcase his potential against Nebraska or look like a freshman on the road?
Nebraska has its own five-star quarterback in sophomore Dylan Raiola. The Cornhuskers are hungry for a big win after years of middling (at best) play. Michigan is a small favorite on the road.
Meanwhile, Tulane has a great chance to make its case for the Group of 5 spot in the College Football Playoff. After South Florida got smoked at Miami last week, Tulane has a great opportunity to take the early pole position with a win at Ole Miss. The Rebels are favored by double-digits after putting up 41 points against Arkansas with backup quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The Green Wave have wins against Duke and Northwestern, although the value of those wins remains in question.
Evening window: Early CFP implications
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana — 7:30 p.m. on NBC and Peacock
Florida at No. 4 Miami — 7:30 p.m. on ABC
Yes, Illinois at Indiana is a big game in football. Two programs with little history of winning are both in position to contend for the CFP. Neither team has proven much yet this season, so let’s take a moment to appreciate that these schools can be given the benefit of national rankings based on previous seasons and returning talent.
Indiana is favored at home by less than a touchdown in what appears to be a massive game for both teams. If 10-2 is the mark for a Big Ten team to get into the CFP, Indiana needs this win with tough games at Oregon and Penn State still ahead, where the Hoosiers will be significant underdogs. Illinois has a more forgiving schedule, which means they have fewer opportunities for quality wins.
Illinois has given up 22 total points across three games so far. Indiana has scored 156 points. That side of the ball will be the matchup to watch.
Florida at Miami is always a big game on paper, but both programs have had their ups and downs in recent years. The Hurricanes appear to be on the upswing, with Carson Beck currently the favorite to win the Heisman. Florida is, uhh, not on the upswing.
The Gators are 1-2, and Billy Napier has a chance to be the next coach to get fired. His prized five-star quarterback, D.J. Lagway, threw five interceptions in a game at LSU last week that otherwise appeared winnable. Florida has yet to show signs of giving up on the season, but the unforgiving schedule marches on. Texas and Texas A&M are up next, which could mark four straight top-10 opponents.
Wild card picks
Every week, our pickers select another bet of their choosing that isn’t limited to the games listed above.
Matt Baker: Washington -19.5 at Washington State
Mark Cooper: West Virginia +13.5 at Kansas
Seth Emerson: Clemson -17.5 vs. Syracuse
Sam Khan Jr.: West Virginia +13.5 at Kansas
Austin Mock: Maryland +10 at Wisconsin
Dan Santaromita: Oregon -35.5 vs. Oregon State
Daniel Shirley: North Carolina +6.5 at UCF
David Ubben: SMU/TCU over 64.5
Chris Vannini: Utah/Texas Tech first half under 29.5
Picks standings
WriterWeek 3Overall
Sam Khan Jr.
8-1
25-9
Matt Baker
4-5
18-16
David Ubben
3-6
17-17
Chris Vannini
5-4
17-17
Dan Santaromita
4-5
16-18
Seth Emerson
3-6
15-18
Austin Mock
5-4
14-20
Mark Cooper
2-7
12-22
Daniel Shirley
4-5
11-21-1
(Photo of Jackson Arnold: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)