The 2025 NFL season is off to a hot start as per usual!
Through the first couple of weeks, there has been action left, right, and center to entertain the masses, but not every fan base is having the best time with what is happening to their favorite teams.
And for some—like the good folks out in Cincinnati—it goes beyond the win/loss column, as they have lost their franchise quarterback Joe Burrow yet again to a long-term injury…
If you examine the patterns, you will see there is reason to believe that things could get worse—way worse, even—before they get better.
What if I told you that Burrow’s career is playing out like a heartbreaking movie we’ve already seen?
Same script, different actor… Here are the bullet points!
A generational quarterback dragged down by constant hits, a broken body, and a front office that couldn’t quite keep him safe.
And for the closing scene, there is no Super Bowl parade but a stunning early retirement speech that leaves fans angry and asking, “What could have been?”
Because here’s the thing: if you look closely enough, his story is starting to mirror Andrew Luck’s in borderline creepy ways.
That’s not a hot take meant to rile up Bengals Nation. Much as they might want to chalk it up to clickbait—the uncomfortable truth staring them in the face is that when you line up Joe Burrow’s NFL career next to Luck’s the similarities aren’t just there… they are screaming at us.
Two generational quarterbacks. Two franchises that asked them to save the day. Two offensive lines that couldn’t protect them. And two careers are defined more by trips to the trainer’s table than to the Super Bowl.
Let’s start with the basics.
Both of these guys weren’t just quarterbacks… They were taken as saviors for franchises picking number one overall in the draft.
Luck was supposed to be Peyton Manning’s heir… unfortunately, the “chosen one” was dropped into a Colts roster that had collapsed without Manning, and told, “Hey, we need you to rebuild the whole thing. And also, win right away.”
Joe Burrow was the same story, different city. Drafted first overall to the Bengals, who had been the definition of NFL mediocrity for decades. The franchise of heartbreak, of playoff collapses, of Marvin Lewis always coaching them to “pretty good” but never great. Burrow wasn’t just drafted to play quarterback. He was drafted to change the entire identity of Cincinnati football.
And what is crazy is that they both were able to deliver.
Luck immediately dragged the Colts back to the playoffs. Four Pro Bowls in his first six seasons. An AFC Championship appearance. He was everything Indy could’ve asked for.
Burrow? Same deal. Took the Bengals to a Super Bowl in his second season. Made them a perennial contender in the AFC. Gave the city swagger it hadn’t felt since… honestly, ever.
Both men carried their franchises with their arms and their bodies, taking hit after hit because they refused to give up on plays. They stood tall in collapsing pockets because they believed they could make something happen.
Year after year, their teams promised to “fix the offensive line.” And year after year, it wasn’t fixed.
This led to a devastating turn of events in Indy—and what we believe could be foreshadowing in Cincinnati.
Heading into the 2019 NFL season, Andrew Luck surprised everyone by announcing his retirement at 29. Again, he walked away from the game not because he lost the love for it, but because he lost the will to keep putting his body through the same cycle: pain, rehab, setback, repeat.
And now, six years later, Joe Burrow is set to miss another extended stretch of play after sustaining a gnarly toe injury in Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season—a nasty side effect of the beating he took through two weeks behind another terrible Bengals offensive line.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, he is not just in the same age range as Luck—he is actually set to turn 29 in December of this year!
As if that weren’t bad enough, the numbers are where it gets downright creepy—virtually the same stat line.
Andrew Luck, through his first five seasons in the NFL: He played 70 games, accumulated 19078 passing yards and 132 touchdowns—all while enduring 156 sacks.
Joe Burrow? He’s taken a more severe beating through 69 games, taking 196 sacks, while putting up 19001 yards and 140 touchdowns.
Think about that… Nearly identical production in yardage and touchdowns. Almost an identical number of games played. But where Burrow separates himself—and not in a good way—is in the punishment column.
In essentially the same span of time, Burrow’s been sacked 40 more times than Luck.
That’s not just a number—it represents how many times Burrow’s body has been driven into the ground, ribs compressed, legs twisted, and head bouncing off turf. And that doesn’t even account for the hits he’s taken that didn’t end in sacks.
Which… speaking of… might be the only bright side for Bengals fans is that if you go by the advanced metrics, Luck might have gotten beaten up a little bit worse than Burrow has to date…
Luck took 828 QB contacts to Burrow’s 634—though that is only because the Colts fed him to the wolves more than Cinci has done with its franchise quarterback. The contact and pressure percentages are also identical, with Luck’s sitting at 21 and 28 percent, while Joe’s is at 20 and 27%, respectively.
Now—before you get on your high horse and talk about how much money these guys made and how they are football players and contact is part of the game—let’s look at the reality of the situation. Yes, football is a physical sport, and players get injured and beaten up all the time… But NFL quarterbacks aren’t supposed to live like this.
You look at Tom Brady and see a guy with an offensive line that was basically a fortress for two decades.
You look at Patrick Mahomes now. Sure, he scrambles, but Kansas City continues to invest heavily to ensure he isn’t getting pummeled every week.
Even up-and-coming teams like the Los Angeles Chargers continue to emphasize the importance of protecting their young star quarterback, Justin Herbert. Coach Jim Harbaugh tells the media that keeping Herbert healthy is a focal point of their team’s strategy.
Because this goes beyond missing time and the frustration of not playing, a huge mental and physical toll is paid behind the scenes.
And eventually, no matter how tough you are or how much mental grit you’ve got, your body taps out.
Because this goes beyond missing time and the frustration of not playing, a huge mental and physical toll is paid behind the scenes.
This often causes fans to forget the most crucial part of this process—the endless rehab needed to get back on the field.
Luck talked about this openly when he retired. It wasn’t just the pain of the injuries; it was the grind of coming back from them: the surgeries, the therapy, the hours in the pool, the hours stretching, and the frustration when you thought you were good to go and then had a setback.
Burrow’s been living that grind now…
Every offseason, it feels like he’s rehabbing something instead of training. ACL tear. MCL sprain. Calf strain. Wrist. Toe. Each time, he’s been asked to come back and be the same savior again. And each time, he’s pushed himself through it.
But how many more times can he keep doing it? How many more summers can he spend in a training room instead of building chemistry with his receivers? How many times can he go through the cycle before saying, “I’m done”?
The smart money says—this year is the straw that breaks the camel’s back… ESPECIALLY, if he endures another setback once he returns from the toe injury later in the year…
It is hard to imagine him wanting to pick up the pieces AGAIN after that.
And that is a very real possibility… Let’s play it out. Say Burrow comes back late this season because Jake Browning has managed to keep the Bengals in playoff contention.
With his eye on another run at glory, he forces his way back onto the field for a crucial December game.
He’s rusty, frustrated, and takes more hits—and next thing you know, he’s on the cart again.
Then comes the offseason. Another round of rehab. Another round of questions about his durability… Maybe—at that point—he looks around and says, “Why am I doing this to myself?”
Burrow doesn’t need football to define him. He’s already a legend in Cincinnati, having given the Bengals something they hadn’t had in 30 years…
And off the field, he is already rich beyond belief—and an influential figure in pop culture. He could easily pivot to a second career in media or maybe even Hollywood…
So if the choice is between grinding his body into dust for a few more seasons or preserving his health for the next 50 years of his life? Well, we already know how Andrew Luck answered that question…
I’m not saying Joe Burrow will retire after this season. Nobody but Joe knows that. Maybe he will come back, and the breaks will start to go his way. Cinci picks up a few pieces off the scrap heap, and they can slap together an offensive line that keeps him upright. They make another run at the Super Bowl, and Joe manages to rewrite this entire script.
But the parallels are undeniable. Full stop. I mean… even their body language on the field is almost identical!
So Bengals fans, brace yourselves. Because if Joe Burrow walks away at the end of this season, don’t say you didn’t see it coming.
The post The Creepy Coincidence That Points to Joe Burrow’s Retirement After This Season originally published on Total Pro Sports.