It’s fair to say the hype around Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning reached ludicrous speed before he even started a game this season.

Since he’s struggled, Manning’s stock has tumbled, and some of the same pundits that once said he would be an all-time great are now eating their words, while others have turned to defending him from ‘I told you so’ takes.

That was the case on Saturday’s College GameDay, where the crew did their best to diagnose what has gone wrong for the newest member of the Manning dynasty, with some admitting they were part of the problem.

“I feel like I was part of the problem,” Pat McAfee said. “You know, I was crowning Arch before he even took a snap this year as the starter and before even seeing what this team was and how it was going to go for Arch Manning. So, I think that is 100% on an expectation that was set on him that was absolutely absurd.”

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what TV pundits think of Arch Manning. It only matters what NFL brass think, as they’ll decide where he gets selected in the draft. According to ESPN college football reporter Pete Thamel, however, things aren’t looking great on that front either.

On GameDay, Thamel shared that they had polled 25 NFL scouts and executives about who the best quarterback prospect is for the 2026 NFL Draft. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers was the front-runner, receiving eight votes. He was followed by LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Miami’s Carson Beck, Oklahoma’s John Mateer, and Penn State’s Drew Allar.

Not only did Manning not make the top five, but he also received only one vote.

Thamel was quick to note that Cam Ward, who went No. 1 in this year’s NFL Draft, also only received one vote in a similar poll done during last season, so you don’t want to read too much into it. However, the reporter also dropped one fairly shocking nugget about Manning’s draft stock.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel reveals a poll of 25 NFL executives/scouts ranking college football QB1.

LaNorris Sellers got the most votes at 8. Arch Manning received 1 vote.

“The NFL sentiment right now, Rece (Davis), is that Arch isn’t going to be able to go to the draft until 2027.” pic.twitter.com/l3O45rZfo8

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) September 20, 2025

“The NFL sentiment right now,” said Thamel, “is that Arch isn’t going to be able to go to the draft until 2027.”

There’s still a lot of college football left to play, and Manning’s pure ability still makes him a worthwhile draft target, but it has been a stunning turnaround in just a few weeks, given how high the hype was heading into this season.