Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills took care of business against a desperate Miami Dolphins team on a short week, winning 31-21 on Thursday night. That is what matters most.

For his part, Allen played with measured sophistication, completing 21 of 28 attempts for 218 yards with three touchdown passes and interceptions. The Bills’ offense was at times unstoppable, as they physically imposed their will on the Dolphins in rushing (157 to 130 yards), passing (203 to 146 yards) and first downs (23 to 19), gaining 6.3 yards per play and winning the turnover differential at plus-1.

Bills Dolphins third (copy)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks on during the third quarter of Thursday’s game against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.

Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News

But the game was closer than it needed to be. This was in large part because of a couple hiccups that thwarted the Bills’ offensive momentum. In the second quarter, Allen was sacked on third down, ending a drive that could have extended the Bills’ lead to 21-7 with a touchdown. Instead, Matt Prater – who had been accurate so far – shanked a 39-yard field-goal attempt that would have given the Bills the comfortable two-score lead at 17-7. These two plays in the second quarter, the sack and missed field goal, allowed the Dolphins to tie the game at 14 right before halftime.

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Then, in the third quarter, a variety of pre-snap and post-snap defensive adjustments forced Allen and the Bills to punt three straight times.

The Bills’ offense was balanced, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady demonstrated his willingness to feature running back James Cook, who rushed 19 times for 108 yards and a touchdown. This was offset by Allen’s high-efficiency passing from a dizzying array of personnel combinations.

In all, the Bills’ offense punted only twice on nine official possessions (really eight, as Allen kneeled before halftime), which was a quite impressive total.

This strange game, however, was tied at 21 in the fourth quarter with 10 minutes to play as the Dolphins forced a third straight Buffalo punt. Fortunately for the Bills, Zach Sieler was called for roughing the punter during his attempt to block.

This turn of events extended the Bills’ offensive drive, and was the first of two game-changing plays Allen and the Bills’ offense took advantage of. Allen threw his third touchdown pass shortly thereafter to put the Bills back ahead, 28-21, with 7:17 remaining. Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard delivered the second game-changing play as he intercepted a Tua Tagolaivoa pass on the Dolphins’ next drive to seal the victory, and Prater hammered through a 46-yard field goal.

For their part, the Dolphins changed tactics to thwart Allen’s momentum in this game. They began to show man coverage and play zone, which kept Allen from being completely comfortable with what he was seeing.

The other strategic factor the Dolphins achieved high marks for was possessing the football. They ran more plays, 59 to the Bills’ 57. They lost in the time of possession category, 28:13 to 31:47, but they kept it close. Their goal was to keep things close enough to be in striking distance in the end. The concept could have worked if not for their mistakes, and in the end, that was the difference.

FIRST QUARTER

Play selection: 11 plays (four passes, seven runs)

Allen: 4 for 4 passing, 46 yards, TD; 0 carries for 0 yards.

Following a methodical and impressive 10-play opening touchdown drive by Miami, Allen and the Bills responded with their own seven-play touchdown drive to tie the score. Credit the Dolphins for draining a total of 6:19 off the clock in their first series. The Bills didn’t touch the football until there was 8:25 remaining in the quarter.

The Bills started with a heavy dose of Cook as Brady called four runs and three passes, establishing classical offensive balance. The Dolphins’ defense played safe, rushing four and zoning their coverage with their back seven. It appeared that they didn’t want to give up any big plays by blitzing Allen.

Here, on second-and-9, the Bills attacked Miami’s zone principles with this crafty fake screen that turned into a post-wheel.

1. A crafty post-wheel fake-screen; Josh Allen TD pass to Dalton Kincaid

The Bills lined up in an empty formation. Dalton Kincaid was the closest inside receiver to Allen’s left. He pretended to block the flat defender, Jason Marshall Jr., and flowed into a wheel route. This was a very creative concept design that flooded the Dolphins’ zone coverage.

Josh Palmer ran a post pattern and took cornerback Jack Jones with him. Marshall was stuck between Khalil Shakir on the fake screen and Kincaid, who had snuck behind him. Allen read the flooded area perfectly and threw the ball in between the Dolphins’ defenders for the tying score. This was an aggressive 20-yard touchdown strike from Allen to Kincaid on a sensational play-call.

The Dolphins went three-and-out and punted on their next possession. Allen and the Bills’ offense had a chance to take the lead with just over two minutes remaining in the quarter. The offense sustained another impressive 10-play touchdown drive that extended into the second quarter.

Allen’s first-quarter statistics were perfect, as he completed 4 of 4 attempts for 46 yards and one touchdown. It would be difficult for anyone to start a game better than Allen started this one.

SECOND QUARTER

Play selection: 15 plays (nine passes, five runs)

Allen: 7 for 9 passing, 51 yards, one touchdown, one sack; one carry for 0 yards.

This second Bills’ scoring drive was made possible by this majestic shuffle pass from Allen to rookie tight end Jackson Hawes on first-and-goal.

Josh Allen’s shuffle pass for a touchdown to Jackson Hawes

On first-and-goal from the 5-yard line, Brady again was aggressive with his play-call. This was another great design using Alec Anderson as a sixth offensive lineman and motioning him over to the same side as Dawson Knox and Hawes to create a bunch to Allen’s left.

Josh Allen’s shuffle pass to Jackson Hawes: end-zone view

When Anderson motioned and reset on the line of scrimmage, both Knox and Hawes widened to fit Anderson inside. This created a new gap to be defended. When Hawes went in motion, he attracted man-to-man coverage by Ashtyn Davis (No. 21), who was originally lined up where Anderson was, to Allen’s right.

The Bills had been running Cook so successfully that this play-action had the Dolphins scrambling to cover. Hawes blasted outside linebacker Matthew Judon and then released into the flat. He maintained a perfect relationship with Allen as he rolled left. Allen could have thrown the corner to Knox or run the ball in himself – but instead, like in a video game, he drew the defense to him for the flip to Hawes.

I’m not sure if it was drawn up that way, but Allen’s improvisation is at times astounding. It was another perfectly executed touchdown pass that highlighted the synergy between Brady’s play-call and Allen’s intuitive execution.

This gave the Bills a 14-7 lead.

The Dolphins punted on their next possession, giving Allen and the Bills a chance to take a two-score lead. Allen took the Buffalo offense down the field in eight to the Dolphins’ 14-yard line.

It was this third-and-8 sack which turned the tide in favor of the Dolphins just before halftime. They seemed to gather momentum from this missed opportunity for points.

Miami sacks Josh Allen on third-and-8

Here the Bills’ offense lined up with three receivers to Allen’s left. They needed to focus on a positive completion, as any yardage could result in the possibility of a chip-shot field goal or an opportunity to go for it. Allen had two deeper routes to his right with shorter options to his left. The Dolphins played man-to-man and they specifically doubled Keon Coleman.

As we see here, Allen had Knox open right away, but perhaps this was a case of trying to throw a touchdown rather than taking what he had. Knox would have had to make it to the 6-yard line for the Bills to gain the first down – but instead of taking the open receiver, Allen waited for Ty Johnson out of the backfield on a stutter-go. These kinds of double moves take time, especially out of the backfield.

The Dolphins’ pass rush was nothing special – just a good, steady pocket compression that held Allen in there. Given an opportunity to see this on film, I have to believe Allen will throw this easy completion to Knox next time. Knox would have fought for the first down or at least given the Bills an opportunity to go for it on fourth down. This one completion could have made this a different game altogether if the Bills had taken a 21-7 lead.

Instead, Prater missed a 39-yard field goal.

Anyone watching the game could feel the Dolphins get excited with the opportunity to keep this game close. They sensed that a 14-14 score before halftime could be demoralizing to the heavily favored Bills. The Dolphins made good on that belief as they executed a terrific 16-play, 71-yard drive that tied the game, leaving the Bills with no time before the break.

The Dolphins created a great deal of momentum from the missed opportunity sack and the badly missed field goal. The Bills lost their mojo for a moment – and for all the good things they did in the first half, they could not escape the fact that the score was tied.

Allen’s first half was masterful, as he completed 11 of 13 passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns, but the Bills had only three meaningful possessions. Credit the Dolphins for their offensive drives that drained the clock and kept the ball out of Allen’s hands.

THIRD QUARTER

Play selection: 17 plays (10 passes, seven runs)

Allen: 7 for 10 passing, 63 yards, 0 touchdowns; two carries for 23 yards.

Allen and the Bills’ offense started the third quarter and made the most of their opportunity to take another lead. Allen led the Bills on an eight-play, 61-yard touchdown drive that took 4:31. Following Dion Dawkins’s holding call came the key play on this drive – Allen’s 19-yard scramble. On first-and-20 from the Dolphins’ 39-yard line, Allen ripped off this outstanding run to regain their offensive momentum.

Josh Allen’s 19-yard scramble for a first down

At this moment, Allen knew the Dolphins were in man-to-man coverage. Rasul Douglas (No. 26), the former Bills cornerback, was in coverage against Kincaid on a drag route right in front of Allen. Jordan Brooks (No. 20) locked onto Cook out of the backfield. Allen could plainly see it was man-to-man. Tyrel Dodson (No. 25) tried to knock Kincaid off course as well to disrupt the timing of his route.

All of this meant one thing to Allen: If he could escape the pocket, he would have room to run. Watch as he stepped up and faked to Kincaid just enough for Dodson to commit. Allen took off into the secondary and erased the holding penalty that had pushed the Bills just outside of scoring range.

Allen’s recognition and his reactions on this play were extraordinary as he processed all of this instantly.

The next play built on that momentum with a quick bubble-screen to Kincaid that also gained 19 yards. These back-to-back 19-yard gains led to a Cook 1-yard plunge to again give the Bills a seven-point lead, 21-14.

The remainder of the quarter was all punts as both teams punted twice.

The Dolphins began to change defensive tactics. They blitzed their cornerback to thwart a Cook run on first down. This was the catalyst the Dolphins used to force the Bills’ first punt. Then on the next offensive series, on first-and-10, Allen passed on an open flat route to Knox on boot-pass. The next play was a dropped pass by Keon Coleman. Those two plays led to this third-and-10. The Dolphins called a creative stunt that pressured Allen to throw it before he wanted to.

Third-and-10: The Dolphins stunt to force a second straight Bills punt

Credit the Dolphins for this trapping-style stunt. They were trying to flush Allen to his right into the waiting arms of linebacker Chop Robinson (No. 44). The Bills’ passing concept was a double-post to Allen’s right with a deep over route underneath the posts by Coleman.

The Dolphins zoned their coverage to one side of the field and played man-to-man on Coleman on the other side. This split-field defensive coverage made Allen uneasy and unsure of what he was seeing. Was it man or was it zone? That was the question in Allen’s mind. The pass-rush stunt was picked up nicely by Johnson and the Bills’ offensive line but Allen felt rushed. He had Knox wide open from his chip-and-release route, but Allen’s eyes had already come off the coverage to try to navigate the pocket. Finally, Johnson tried to release to Allen’s left, but the hurried and off-balance throw was not accurate enough to make a completion.

The Dolphins didn’t have a lot of great defensive plays in this game, but this one created enough uncertainty to force a second punt.

The combination of Allen passing up underneath opportunities and just a couple of decent defensive plays by Miami forced two punts in a row from the Bills. NFL games are close, and we get spoiled watching Allen make magic on a regular basis. The Dolphins, in large part, minimized much of his magic in the third quarter, which then led to the close finish.

The Dolphins took their next possession into the fourth quarter on a nine-play drive that ate up 5:40 of game clock.

FOURTH QUARTER

Play selection: 14 plays (five passes, nine runs)

Allen: 4 for 5 passing, 53 yards, TD pass; one carry for 2 yards.

The Dolphins tied the game at 21 early in the fourth quarter, again keeping it close.

Allen and the Bills’ offense took over on their next series with 12:18 remaining. This was plenty of time to mount a game-winning drive and drain a good portion of the clock. Then, on second-and-10, Allen seemed surprised by the Dolphins’ coverage.

Second-and-10: The Dolphins defense shows Josh Allen something weird

Here, Cornell Armstrong started in what appeared to be man-to-man coverage on Palmer.

Palmer motioned from Allen’s right to left and went into the flat. Armstrong crossed the formation with him. This was an indication to Allen that the Dolphins were playing a form of man coverage – but at the last second, Armstrong deviated to a middle-of-the-field defender and matched Knox up the seam. This caused Allen to hesitate and immediately check the ball down to Cook.

Credit the Dolphins here for showing Allen something different pre-snap and then playing zone post-snap. The reaction from Allen resulted in a completion to Cook, who was immediately tackled. Had Allen been able to stay on his play-side reads, he would have likely thrown to Shakir, who was immediately open. The shakeup and change by Armstrong caused some consternation, at least enough for Allen to get off his primary reads. Had Cook been able to get the first down, we wouldn’t be talking about this play, because Allen wasn’t wrong in checking down in a situation he was unsure of.

This set up the next play, a critical third-and-7 for the Bills. The Dolphins called this confusing blitz to keep Allen even more uncomfortable.

Dolphins call a confusing blitz on third-and-7

One second after the snap, the Dolphins fell into a cover-2 zone.

This again was a creative way for the Dolphins to make it appear to be one coverage and then play another. They also were able to make it feel like they were rushing six defenders when they actually only rushed four. Allen, perhaps feeling unsettled, elected to go outside to Elijah Moore, but the ball was knocked away.

This defensive play forced Allen and the Bills’ offense to punt for the third consecutive time in what was the most critical point in the game. But what happened next on the punt would turn the tides of momentum back into the Bills’ favor.

Defensive tackle Zach Sieler pancaked the Bills’ long snapper, Reid Ferguson, and then rolled into the legs of the Bills’ punter, Cameron Johnston. This roughing-the-kicker penalty extended the Bills’ offensive drive and erased all of the defensive progress the Dolphins had made against the reigning MVP.

Allen wasted no time with another chance to put this game away. Just five plays later, Allen threw his third touchdown pass of the game.

Josh Allen’s ‘escort’ touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir

This was a run-pass option for Allen. This time, the Dolphins were actually playing man-to-man and Allen saw that both Tyrell Shavers and Kincaid were able to maintain outside leverage on their defenders. With this leverage, Shakir was able to get to the edge and outside. The Dolphins’ safety, Davis, took the wrong angle, misjudging Shakir’s speed.

This was Allen’s third touchdown pass of the game, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the stalled Bills’ offense.

Had Allen handed the ball off, Cook might have had a successful play as well. Both options would have been right on this play, but the great blocking by Kincaid and Shavers made the touchdown possible.

This put the Bills back into the lead, 28-21.

The Bills kicked off with 7:17 remaining. The Dolphins marched down the field on nine plays and looked like they were going to tie the game – until Bernard intercepted Tagovailoa with just 3:06 remaining. This stunning play and turn of events, combined with the roughing-the-kicker penalty, were back-to-back catastrophic mistakes that the Bills capitalized on. Without them, who knows what would have happened?

CONCLUSION

Try to wrap your head around the fact that Allen is the only player in NFL history to have 200 passing touchdowns and 50 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. He also holds the record for being the fastest player to reach 300 total offensive touchdowns.

Add the fact that the Bills have won the turnover differential in 25 straight games, a current and ongoing NFL record. These are statistics that reflect both individual and team greatness. No one can argue with Sean McDermott’s ability to develop players around his philosophies.

The facts are the facts, and winning the turnover differential helps to win games nearly 80% of the time. Having an MVP quarterback who holds league records like these at the age of 29 is almost unthinkable.

Despite the incontestable facts, a scrappy Dolphins team that hobbled into Highmark stadium winless in 2025 kept it close – too close.

This game illustrated just how fleeting winning in the NFL can be. A sack, a penalty, or a missed read is often the difference. That’s where mental toughness and vigilance appear, in the space between being good and being great.

In this game, Allen’s brilliance was visible, to the tune of a 95% performance grade, and that was important to score points.

But the real difference, in my opinion, was on the other side of that coin. For all the good Tagolaivoa did in the game, he made the fatal error when Allen did not. It is this part of the game that we need to pay attention to. There are a lot of great athletes – guys who can run, jump, and throw at elite levels – but only a small percentage of those minimize their mishaps to the level of the Bills and Allen.

Perhaps that is the takeaway from a game like this. You can live by the sword or die by the sword, but you also need to take care that you don’t fall onto it.

Overall QB Performance Grade: 95 %

Passing: 22 of 28 (78%), 213 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

Rushing: four rushes, 25 yards, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles 

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