Every fantasy manager knows that schedule strength can greatly impact fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better.

My matchup points system uses various fantasy points and allowed metrics as a base. Then, variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass blocking/pass rush strength are added. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable.

Keep in mind that these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a strong YPA allowed but a low fantasy PPR PPG allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.

Over the years, I have found that the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is on the outer margins. This weekly article will cover that area. It will highlight players with a matchup points total of 80 or higher and detail players with 20 or lower.

Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s move on to the best and worst matchups for Week 4. The list below shows the entire scope of players with favorable and unfavorable matchups. I’ll highlight players from each positional list, beginning with quarterbacks.

Metrics are via TruMedia/PFF, Stathead or NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted. Point references are in PPR unless otherwise noted.

Most favorable Week 4 matchupsQuarterbacks

Jordan Love, GB (@ DAL): The Cowboys’ secondary has three defenders who have allowed 12 or more yards per target, with two of them (Trevon Diggs and Donovan Wilson) allowing more than 22 yards per target. Dallas ranks last in fantasy points allowed on vertical passes, giving Love a clear path to a 20+ point day.

Geno Smith, LV (vs. CHI): A combination of injuries and poor play has given the Bears some of the worst coverage metrics in the 2025 season, including a No. 29 ranking in vertical pass points allowed and a No. 24 ranking in fantasy points allowed per game to tight ends. Smith has posted superb downfield numbers before this year and should do so again this week. Consider him a low-tier QB1.

Running backs

Ashton Jeanty, LV (vs. CHI): Jeanty may be the most disappointing player in fantasy football this season. A matchup against a Bears defense that ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed on planned rushing plays just might be what Jeanty needs to have an impact this week. Be sure to start him.

Breece Hall, NYJ (@ MIA): Only two teams have faced more planned rush plays than Miami this year. Only five teams have allowed a higher fantasy points per game mark on those planned rush plays. The Jets offense limits the value of Hall’s rush attempts, but he still should earn, at least, Flex status this week.

Nick Chubb; Woody Marks, HOU (vs. TEN): My weekly fantasy review article details the essential running backs fantasy managers should consider adding following a slew of injuries at the position this season. Marks was mentioned, since he’ll be in a platoon role with Chubb. A Week 4 matchup against a Tennessee defense that ranks last in fantasy points allowed on planned rush plays should maximize the value of Chubb and Marks’ carries. Consider them both upside Flex options.

Wide receivers

Romeo Doubs; Dontayvion Wicks; Matthew Golden, GB (@ DAL): Packers wide receivers can be tough to start since Green Bay spreads the ball around a lot. But starting them becomes easier when facing a secondary as weak as Dallas’. As noted above, the Cowboys have many players with abysmal pass coverage metrics. Golden is starting to percolate, and if you are looking for longshot upside candidates, be sure to put Doubs and Wicks on your list.

Keenan Allen; Ladd McConkey, LAC (@ NYG): One of the most common start-sit questions this week in The Athletic Discord server was whether or not to start McConkey. Those who did start him were not happy following an 8.1-point performance. His numbers should improve against a Giants defense with coverage liabilities throughout its secondary. McConkey and Allen should be WR2s in Week 4.

Least favorable Week 4 matchupsRunning backs

Cam Skattebo, NYG (vs. LAC): Skattebo will be the Giants’ lead back since Tyrone Tracy will be out for 2-4 weeks with a shoulder injury. Partly due to Tracy’s injury, Skattebo had a 24.1-point showing against the Chiefs in Week 3. He likely won’t do as well against a Chargers defense that ranks third in fantasy points allowed on planned rush plays. This isn’t to say to bench Skattebo, but rather to consider other candidates if you have a stacked running back roster.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt; Chris Rodriguez; Jeremy McNichols, WAS (@ ATL): These three running backs are in a rare running back-by-committee (RBBC) setup, which usually doesn’t fare well for fantasy managers since RBBCs often spread the workload too thin. But in Week 3, all RBs were able to produce. However, facing an Atlanta rush defense that ranks eighth in points allowed on planned rush plays in Week 4 could limit the upside. Consider this a negative tiebreaker when deciding between a Washington running back and another player.

Wide receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (vs. LAC): The Giants’ passing game fell apart last week when facing a talented Steve Spagnuolo defense. It could get even worse against a Jesse Minter Chargers defense that is a step above Kansas City’s. Robinson could be hindered more than anyone since he’s due to face Derwin James in coverage. James has allowed only 2.9 yards per target on 15 targets this year. That makes Robinson more bust than boom this week.

Marvin Harrison, ARI (vs. SEA): This series has detailed how many of Harrison’s fantasy scoring struggles occur because Kyler Murray has consistently been one of the least productive vertical pass quarterbacks.

That trend is not likely to improve with a Week 4 matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed only a third-best 2.2 points per game on vertical passes. Harrison has had two straight weeks with middling fantasy points, and this matchup could make it a third consecutive subpar point total.

George Pickens, DAL (vs. GB): Pickens has been the subject of this series’ first three editions. He was on the unfavorable list in Week 1 and scored only 6 points. Pickens moved to the favorable side in Weeks 2 and 3 and scored 17.8 points in each contest.

Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, Pickens is back on the unfavorable side of the ledger in Week 4 due in part to a matchup against Keisean Nixon. Nixon is not a shutdown cornerback, but he has posted good fantasy coverage metrics this year. Pickens isn’t a blanket sit candidate, but he may not have the upside shown in each of the past two games, even with CeeDee Lamb out.

(Photo of Jordan Love: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)