Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 4’s Thursday Night Football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.

Rivalry night in the desert! Thursday night in Glendale brings a divisional knife fight in brand new jerseys, two 2-1 teams with starkly different post-Week-2 spirits colliding under the roof. The Arizona Cardinals return home after a last-second loss to San Francisco, a grind that cost them James Conner for the year. The Seattle Seahawks arrive humming, piling up 75 points in two weeks and thumping the Saints 44–13 with offense, defense, and special teams all producing. The line sits at Seattle -1.5 with a total of 43.5, but the deeper data tells the story of two defenses built to suffocate and one offense far more prepared to dictate. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 4’s Thursday Night Football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Sam Darnold has stabilized Seattle, completing 70.3% of his passes for 663 yards at 9.0 per attempt with four touchdowns. He was PFF’s highest-graded passer last week, delivering a 91.9 grade with 11.6% completion percentage over expected, and his 104.7 rating sits top-ten leaguewide. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has become the engine, ranking second in the NFL with 323 receiving yards and hauling in 22 of 29 targets. Kenneth Walker III remains a short-yardage hammer, already with three touchdowns, and Tory Horton’s vertical role plus special teams explosiveness give the offense juice beyond its core. Seattle has scored on eight of nine red-zone trips in the last two weeks, and Klint Kubiak’s offense is averaging 29.3 points, good for fifth.

The defense is sharper still, and everyone’s just starting to catch on. Seattle allows just 15.7 points per game, second in the league, and has yet to concede a rushing touchdown. The front is holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry, while Derion Kendrick leads the league with two interceptions. Even with Devon Witherspoon sidelined, coverage has been sturdy: 66.7% completions allowed, 221.7 yards per game, and just four passing touchdowns surrendered. Mike Macdonald’s group ranks fifth in DVOA defense and second in pass-rush win rate, a direct challenge to an Arizona line already giving up seven sacks on Kyler Murray. After Horton’s performance on special teams last week, too, the betting public absolutely believes there are hidden points for Seattle in the special teams phase. Should the pass rush bottle Murray and force the Cardinals to punt to Horton a lot, don’t be surprised if Seattle’s field position game is their advantage all night long.

Arizona, meanwhile, feels diminished without stalwart RB James Conner, whose . Rookie Trey Benson flashes burst with 6.0 yards per carry, but 21 totes are a slim sample. Murray has thrown for just 180.7 yards per game with 6.1 yards per attempt, using legs for 107 rushing yards to bail out stalled drives. Trey McBride leads the team in catches and yards, while Marvin Harrison Jr. has been uneven, with 142 yards on 10 receptions and a brutal drop last week. Arizona’s offense ranks 25th in total yards and 28th in passing, producing only 20.7 points per game. They’ve faced Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, and Mac Jones—all quarterbacks well below Darnold’s current level—which frames their defensive rise with skepticism.

Yes, the Cardinals defense has impressed situationally, fifth in points allowed at 17.0 per game and top-five on third down and in the red zone. Mack Wilson leads with 28 tackles, Calais Campbell has chipped in two sacks, and they’ve held opponents under 75 rushing yards per contest. But the pass defense is springing leaks, ranked 30th at 264.3 yards allowed per game. That’s a nightmare against Smith-Njigba’s precision route work and Horton’s vertical separation, especially with multiple corners banged up. Jonathan Gannon has his group playing hard, but the roster stressors are glaring.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals pick, best bet

Counterarguments lean on the spot: Arizona at home on a short week, the emotional rebound angle after San Francisco, and Seattle’s offensive line injuries. Paris Johnson Jr. and Will Hernandez’s statuses matter for the Cardinals, but so do Charles Cross and Olu Oluwatimi’s for the Seahawks. If Darnold is pressured and forced off rhythm, the Seattle offense could narrow, leaving Walker to churn inefficiently into a stout rush front. Yet history is lopsided: Seattle has won seven straight in the rivalry, five by double digits, and Darnold himself threw for 235 yards and two scores against this defense last season in Minnesota.

You also have to worry this might be a trap game for Seattle. If both offensive and defensive units regress even modestly, that tilt benefits an Arizona offense that has sustained drives despite modest explosive rates. Remove one fourth-quarter drop—try not to shudder at the memory of Marvin Harrison Jr. letting a 20+ yard gainer slip—and Arizona likely finishes at 20+ last week. The Seahawks are superb, but they are traveling on a short week, and variance lives in this stadium. Zach Charbonnet’s return would restore the two-headed backfield, and Sam Darnold’s form has carried over, but the consensus has consolidated heavily on Seattle. If the Cardinals rip a few explosives (Benson’s 6.0 yards per carry hints at pop) and manufacture a short field via a takeaway, can Seattle still cover a tight number? The answer hinges on early-down success and turnover margin; a minus-1 script plus one Harrison chunk and a McBride red-zone target convert this from comfortable to coin-flip in a hurry.

Still! Seattle’s ability to win early downs with pressure and precision passing feels like the most decisive edge here. The Cardinals will struggle to keep pace without Conner’s ballast, and Murray’s dual-threat act alone won’t unlock explosive volume. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s route efficiency should punish a thin secondary, while Kenneth Walker forces red-zone leverage. Smith-Njigba’s intermediate command and Walker’s finishing power are the difference-makers, and Darnold’s efficiency sustains Seattle’s momentum.

I’m not going to be surprised if somehow Kyler Murray & co. use tomorrow night’s game to hang a number on the Seahawks at home, just because they’ve not gotten close to their offensive ceiling in their first three games. Still, I’m going with Seahawks -1.5 on the road, with a lean on the over—I just see game states flowing toward points, even if it’s because of defense and special teams.

Final Score: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20.

Best bet: Seahawks -1.5 (-105) at Cardinals

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For a prop lean, Trey McBride 7+ receptions (-115) profiles well: he’s averaging 5.7 catches on 8.0 targets with a 22% target share, running 75%+ of his snaps in-line/slot—right where Seattle concedes the bulk of its completions despite allowing just 221.7 pass yds/game and clamping outside/red-zone threats. With James Conner out, Arizona has leaned into short-game sustenance, and rookie Trey Benson’s capped usage should nudge Kyler Murray into the 30+ attempts range. Seattle’s rush defense (3.2 YPC allowed, 0 rushing TDs) and pressure further funnel throws to McBride’s crosser/option-route diet; his 71% catch rate and third-down utility give him multiple paths to 7+.

Best prop lean: Trey McBride 7+ receptions (-115)

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