The Seattle Seahawks have undergone some pretty significant roster reorganizing this offseason. Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf – the final holdovers from the Pete Carroll era – have all found new homes. Smith to Vegas, Metcalf to Pittsburgh, and Lockett to Nashville. Replacing them are Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and a pair of rookie receivers in Tory Horton and Ricky White III from the 2025 NFL draft. Not to mention the Seahawks have switched out their entire offensive coaching personnel from Ryan Grubb to Klint Kubiak, who brought over his entire staff from New Orleans.

In short, the Seahawks are engineering an offensive makeover for 2025. As a result, the sharps in Vegas aren’t quite bullish on Seattle’s chances this year. Despite the Seahawks finishing with nine wins in 2022, nine wins in 2023, and ten wins in 2024, their over/under win total for 2025 is stuck in the mud at… 7.5 wins. For those who remember, 7.5 wins was their win total going into last year’s season.

The gambling website, BetMGM once again has 7.5 as the number to beat for the Seahawks, citing “major offseason changes” as a key reason why.

I get it. The house usually wins. They don’t build those massive casinos on the Vegas strip because the house is paying out more than they’re pulling in. But in this case I simply must wonder: when will Vegas get it right when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks?

Every time the national NFL landscape begins to doubt Seattle, the Seahawks find a way to “shock” everyone. I remember fondly everyone predicting the 2018 Seahawks would crater after their disappointing 9-7 campaign in 2017. Well actually they finished 10-6 and made the playoffs. Everyone was certain Seattle would be a disaster in 2022 without Russell Wilson. Nope, 9-8 and back in the playoffs. In 2023 folks felt the Seahawks would come back down to Earth after “overachieving” the year prior. While Seattle did miss the playoffs, it could be argued they underachieved(!) at “only” 9-8.

So here we are, yet again, underselling the Seahawks once more. I am not a gambling expert, and no one should be taking my advice. All I’ll say is this: history tells us it’s not the wisest decision betting against the Seahawks.