Alex Hunter provides his prediction and best bet for Sunday’s Week 4 matchup between the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers.

The Patriots are hosting the Panthers for a Week 4 matchup Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New England is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 42.5 points.

Below, I’ll break down this matchup between the Patriots vs. Panthers and give a pick for the game.

Patriots vs. Panthers prediction, pick

The Patriots and Panthers both sit at 1-2, but these two squads are coming off very different performances. New England suffered a very frustrating 21-14 home loss to the Steelers last Sunday, in which the Patriots turned the ball over a whopping five times. Avoid those turnovers and New England likely walks away with a win, as the Patriots’ offense moved the ball very well in this game, producing 166 more total yards and nine more first downs than Pittsburgh.

Rhamondre Stevenson coughed up two fumbles, Antonio Gibson had a fumble and Drake Maye had a pick and a fumble of his own. Stevenson led all running backs in the NFL with seven fumbles last season, so seeing him lose a pair this early in the new season is very concerning. Rookie second-round pick TreVeyon Henderson has never fumbled in his college and professional career, and one would have to assume the Ohio State product leads the Patriots’ backfield in touches this Sunday vs. the Panthers. Henderson is a very promising prospect and this is an appealing spot for him have his breakout performance, as Carolina is giving up the third-most yards per rush in the NFL (5.1). New England ranks an average 14th in offensive EPA this season and it’s possible that giving Henderson an expanded workload would provide a spark for this unit.

Defensively, New England has struggled, giving up the sixth-most yards per play (5.8) and ranking 23rd in defensive EPA. However, CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is back at practice for the Patriots this week and many believe he will make his season debut Sunday. Gonzalez is New England’s best defender and one of the top corners in the NFL, and having him back should be a massive boost for this ailing Patriots’ secondary that is yielding the second-most yards per pass this season (8.6).

As for Carolina, the team made a statement last Sunday, shutting out the Falcons 30-0. This victory came after the Panthers’ nearly erased a 24-point deficit to beat the Cardinals in Week 2. Carolina is certainly trending up right now, and despite the Panthers’ struggles against the run this season, their defense has been encouraging overall, ranking third in defensive EPA. In last week’s blowout over Atlanta, Carolina’s defense forced three turnovers and the Panthers scored a touchdown on one of their picks.

Things have been different on the offensive end, however, as the Panthers rans 20th in offensive EPA and 30th in yards per play (4.3), which has mostly been a product of Bryce Young struggling. The quarterback ranks third-to-last in YPA (5.3) and he has thrown four touchdowns to three interceptions. Young has been better the last two weeks, with four total touchdowns and just one pick, but he now heads on the road to New England and Young has not been a winning player on the road throughout his career, with an ugly 1-16 record. Another concern for the Panthers’ offense is that leading WR Tetairoa McMillan didn’t practice Wednesday due to a calf injury. If the promising rookie is ruled out, Carolina could have issues moving the ball.

Patriots vs. Panthers pick, best bet

Bryce Young’s road woes are a massive red flag for the Panthers and this is a Patriots’ team that should have won last week. Look for New England to bounce back with a home win over Carolina this Sunday.

That being said, 4.5 points is a large spread, especially given how well the Panthers’ defense has played recently and New England’s tendencies to turn the ball over. This should be a competitive game throughout and Carolina +4.5 is a smart wager.

Best Bet: Panthers +4.5 (-105)