Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 4’s game between the Texans and Titans on Sunday.

In the witching hour of Week 4, an AFC South duel takes place at NRG Stadium. The Houston Texans (0-3) are still seeking their first win of the year after an abysmal start, and with the Tennessee Titans (0-3) coming to town, there’s a good shot the home team can finally snag a that victory. However, the visitors are also in search of their first win as well, and first-overall pick Cam Ward may feel the same fire to down a division opponent.

Prepare for the Week 4 matchup with a Texans vs. Titans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Texans vs. Titans prediction, preview

Houston Texans

Ugly. Horrendous. Cooked. There are plenty of words to describe this 0-3 start for the Texans, but the issues are easy to diagnose here. The offense averages a league-worst 12.7 points and 267.3 yards per game, also the third-worst of any team. It starts with the offensive line, which looks even more patchwork than last year’s unit that kept C.J. Stroud under constant pressure. With Joe Mixon (foot) still out, the Texans don’t have much of a run game (though rookie Woody Marks is a name to watch for additional work this week), and with Nick Chubb headlining the ground attack, Houston cannot run to set up the pass.

Without solid run-blocking or standout talent in the backfield, defenses can drop an extra defender into coverage to keep C.J. Stroud from doing damage via the air. Double-cover Nico Collins and make another pass catcher beat you… the game plan is easy for defenses here with the Texans falling 26th in passing yards per game while allowing a sack on 8.25% of dropbacks. That leads to a lot of long third downs, and the team falls dead-last in conversion percentage at 24.24%. See the problems here? It’s one big circular chain of events.

The one redeeming factor so far in Houston is the defense, which ranks fifth with 17 points allowed per game. The yardage average of 315.7 does sit 16th, but the unit largely keeps the team in close games thus far with a deep front seven and fearsome pass rush. Derek Stingley (rib) comes into this one questionable, and he’s a massive loss if he does indeed miss time.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans didn’t enter 2025 with the same expectations as the Texans, so their own 0-3 start causes somewhat less concern. Through three weeks, Cam Ward shows some flashes of the arm talent that was promised but has yet to deliver a truly good game, but that’s not entirely his own fault with a poor offensive line and limited weapons to work with as well. Tennessee averages just 17 points and 222.3 yards per game, bottom-five marks, as well as a league-low 3.6 yards per play. Trailing early and often, the Titans throw the ball at a very high rate of 61.96% but still have produced just 133.7 yards through the air on average, and Ward’s been sacked over 13% of the time, too.

That’s not a recipe for success, and Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor are likely more suited to fill the role of a team’s WR2 and WR3 rather than lead and second options in the passing attack. Still, the latter’s shown flashes and halfback Tony Pollard is doing all he can to produce with little support in the trenches. Again, defenses don’t fear passing games if they’re not supported by serious rushing ability on the ground. Tennessee is no exception.

Defensively, there aren’t many encouraging signs moving forward. The Titans allow 31.3 points and 373.7 yards a game, as well as 6.1 yards per play to opponents. One bright spot on that side of the ball is an opponent third-down conversion rate of 37.14%, 14th-best, as well as a red-zone scoring percentage of 26.15%, eighth-best. However, this defense still needs plenty of work since they’re allowing some long touchdowns and opponents don’t even necessarily need to get into the red zone to find the end zone.

Texans vs. Titans pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Texans as -7 home favorites with -440 odds on the Moneyline. The Titans are listed at +340 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 39.5 combined points.

An 0-3 team listed a seven-point favorites and a -440 ML favorite… oh what a world Houston fans are living in. If there’s such thing as a get-right game, Stroud and his teammates see one this week. The Texans’ offense has so many issues with few easy solutions in sight, and the vibes in that locker room are likely less than ideal at the moment. After basically throwing away three games which were within striking distance over the first three weeks (late fumble, last-second TD allowed, late interception), Houston must reestablish that this roster can perform under pressure. Against a cakewalk opponent, this is the chance to do so and perhaps capture a sliver of positive momentum.

Even with that offense struggling, their matchup with the Titans’ defense appears far easier than the one Tennessee has in store against an imposing defense. Ward has his work cut out for him even if Stingley misses the contest, and constant pressure from the Texans’ pass rushers should keep the rookie running throughout the day.

In short, we can boil this down to bad offense and good defense vs. bad offense and bad defense. The projected total of 39.5 points says everything that needs to be said ahead of this contest. Against all odds, Houston +7 actually makes sense in this spot.

Best bet: HOU Texans +7 (-118)