Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 4’s game between the Falcons and Commanders on Sunday.
Out in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) welcome the Washington Commanders (2-1) to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a watching-hour tilt. The home team suffered an ugly blowout last week and will hope to rebound against a visiting squad still missing its star quarterback under center.
Get ready for this Week 4 matchup with a Falcons vs. Commanders prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Falcons vs. Commanders prediction, preview
Atlanta Falcons
The start of 2025 for the Falcons hasn’t played out in any way close to how the franchise likely anticipated. Michael Penix Jr. stepped under center as the full-time starter after showing potential to end last season, but the first three weeks haven’t been encouraging by any means. The 1-2 record includes a last-second loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as well as a 30-0 drubbing by the NFC South foe Carolina Panthers last week. The lone win for Atlanta came against rookie J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings in Week 2, but even that one came as a result of strong defensive play rather than real growth from the offense.
To this point, Atlanta falls 31st in scoring with just 14 points per game despite averaging 338.7 yards, 13th-best. Why’s that? Well, the red-zone results of a 28.57% scoring rate inside the 20 certainly won’t yield many points. The Falcons’ run game appears strong behind Bijan Robinson and the complimentary work of Tyler Allgeier with 139.3 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 YPC, sixth and 11th-best. However, Penix is completing just 58.6% of his passes with 605 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions thus far. Drake London has also battled through a shoulder issue and Darnell Mooney didn’t suit up in Week 1, but 199.3 yards per game simply won’t cut in today’s NFL, especially not with poor efficiency.
Prior to last week, we could’ve said the Atlanta defense looked good. Even after the blowout loss, the unit still allows 19.7 points and 227.3 yards per contest, 13th and second-best, respectively. The pass defense appears especially potent with top-10 marks in completion percentage, yards/pass and yards per game allowed, even without A.J. Terrell Jr. active last week. He’s still out for Week 4, a significant loss. The run-stoppers also look good with top-15 grades in yardage, YPC, and rush TDs allowed, so it may be safe to say last week could’ve been more of an exception than the norm.
Washington Commanders
Meanwhile, the Commanders enter this week with a 2-1 record despite facing some early adversity already. Despite superstar Jayden Daniels missing Week 3 with a knee issue, Washington blew the Las Vegas Raiders out 41-24 with Marcus Mariota as the starter. He filled in admirably in that contest, throwing for 207 yards and a score while rushing for 40 yards and an additional touchdown. He remains QB1 for Week 4 as well.
This offense ranks inside the top 10 units with 26.7 points and 354 yards a game, plus 5.8 yards per play. The rushing attack appears simply dominant despite a relative lack of talent as Washington deploys a true committee of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols and even Deebo Samuel as well as the quarterback — with averages of 157.3 yards, 1.7 TDs and 5.7 YPC, the Commanders assert their will via the ground in elite fashion. They haven’t needed to throw the ball a ton outside of the Week 2 loss to the Green Bay Packers, so it’s understandable to see their passing numbers sit near the middle-to-bottom of the pack, especially with multiple quarterbacks in action already. Star wideout Terry McLaurin will miss Week 4 with a quad issue, so watch for Samuel and Ertz to get more work as well as possible upticks in snap count for Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane.
The Washington defense doesn’t limit yardage with 329.7 yards allowed per contest, but it has limited opponents to an average of just 19 points, 12th-best. While vulnerable through the air, the run defense has largely performed well and the unit as a whole ranks first in opponent third-down conversion percentage at just 28.57%. Still, they haven’t forced a single turnover yet, and that’s the kind of play that can swing a ball game.
Falcons vs. Commanders pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Falcons enter as -1.5 home favorites with -135 odds on the Moneyline. The Commanders are listed at +114 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 43.5 combined points.
Honestly, this has the makings of an ugly contest unless Penix can recapture some of the magic from the way he finished the 2024 campaign. Though the sample size ultimately remains quite small, concerns are mounting about his ability to lead a team at the NFL level. This passing offense drastically underperforms thus far compared to what it should be, and that’s a major red flag for the Falcons. Thankfully, this Week 4 contest provides a chance to get right against an average-at-best pass defense which has proven vulnerable over the last season or so.
Atlanta has largely stopped the run well to start their campaign, but the Commanders’ ground attack is far more dynamic than the typical opponent. Rodriguez plays the grinder back role, Croskey-Merrit brings great vision and breakaway speed, McNichols broke a 60-yarder for a score last week and provides passing chops, and Mariota only adds to the rushing threat if he escapes from the pocket. McLaurin’s injury hurts, but with Terrell out for the Falcons, those may end up a wash of sorts.
All things considered, I think the Falcons should win this game. After all, they roster the two best offensive talents in this contest between London and Robinson, and the entire depth organization likely feels a burning need to bounce back after last week’s ugly loss. If they can hit the reset button and manage even a respectable performance through the air while still limiting their opponent’s run game as they have overall this year, Atlanta can escape with a win and cover the -1.5 spread. I anticipate a get-right game at home.
Best bet: ATL Falcons -1.5 (-118)