The Broncos must go back nearly three full years for the last time that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II was targeted as often as he has been in the past two games.
Quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert of the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers threw in his direction 14 times over the Broncos’ previous two contests.
So far this season, Surtain has been targeted 5.0 times per game. Last year, per the data compiled by SportRadar.com, that average was 3.88. And in the last two weeks, the average has been 7 targets a game.
And according to defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, it was by design.
“Well, we’re forcing it there. They have to do that,” Joseph said. “And if they don’t do that, it’s going to cut the offense in half. That’s the plan that we have on our side of the ball.
“So, they have to throw the ball to Pat on occasion, obviously. And when they do, I expect Pat to make the plays.”
So, how does the defense fare when Surtain is targeted often?
In the games when opponents target him at least 11 times, the Broncos defense has accounted for 22.2 points allowed per game. At the other end of the spectrum, they’ve given up 18.3 points per game when he’s targeted zero to 2 times, with an overall average of 19.8 points per game for Surtain’s games in his career.
Some of the impact comes is in how many incompletions happen in his direction. If an opponent has three or more incompletions when targeting Surtain, their per-game average drops to 17.9 points — nearly three points below the average otherwise.
But if the Bengals accumulate plenty of yards against Surtain, that’s when the Broncos historically have found trouble.
THREE BRONCOS NUMBERS
26.1
That’s how many points the Broncos defense has accounted for allowing on average in games when opponents pick up at least 50 passing yards when throwing at Surtain.
This includes the last two games, when the Colts and Chargers have scored a total of 52 points for an average of — 26 points, nearly right on the button of the pace.
In all other games of Surtain’s career, Denver’s defense has allowed 18.2 points per game.
But beyond the point total, the Broncos are 2-12 in those games when Surtain allows at least 50 yards.
And to go a step further, in the nine games Surtain has allowed at least 60 receiving yards, the Broncos have lost every time, including the Week 2 defeat at Indianapolis.
For Surtain, the key has always been limiting yardage after the catch. Unfortunately for the Broncos, that was the bugaboo last week.
But when the YAC is down, so is the scoring …
15.8
That is the Broncos’ average points per game allowed in the 31 games when Surtain has held his opponents to 5 or fewer yards after the catch in a single game.
The Broncos are 20-12 in these contests, compared with 10-27 when foes accumulate more than 5 YAC yards against him in a game.
One of those games in which he limited yardage after the catch came against the Bengals in his rookie season; he allowed a single yard after two receptions in a 15-10 loss in Week 15 of the 2021 campaign. Three years later when he faced the Bengals again, he allowed five catches for 45 yards, but just 18 yards after the catch.
Limiting the damage is one of the things Surtain has always done well, which is what made last week’s catch-and-run at his expense by Quentin Johnston so stunning.
“You play until the whistle’s blown, right?” Joseph said. “And that’s got to be an official’s issue when the whistle’s not blown. You’ve gotta play through it. And that’s what I told Pat [and] the entire defense: Finish the plays.”
Which subsequently led Talanoa Hufanga to a hit later in the game adjudged to be unnecessary roughness.
“That kind of pushed ‘Huf’ to finishing the play,” Joseph said.
Still, one should expect a bounce-back game from Surtain on Monday night. The Broncos’ defensive success equation now revolves around him being targeted — which means it likely involves needing him to make plays when given the opportunity.
Bengals quarterback Jake Browning should give him that chance; he’s averaged 1.1 interceptions per game in the nine games in which he’s played extensively.
97.0
That’s the demarcation point for Browning when it comes to passer rating and team-wide success in his eight starts.
When Browning has a passer rating above 97.0, the Bengals have never lost going 4-0; below that figure, they’re 0-4.
It is worth noting that he posted a 69.9 rating coming off the bench a fortnight ago when Cincinnati eked past Jacksonville to go 2-0.
