The race to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft is heating up as we’re seeing some new faces enter the conversation and some big names start to slide, at least according to sportsbooks futures odds. We’re now through Week 5 of the college football season, which means conference action is underway, and the cream of the crop are separating themselves from the rest of the field. This is important for both the Heisman Trophy race and upcoming NFL Draft. 

Right now, there are 15 players who have +4000 or shorter odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to go No. 1 overall. Many big names who entered the season with preseason hype headline that list, but we’re seeing some unexpected names join the fray. In fact, we have a new favorite to go No. 1 overall as of this week. 

No. 1 pick odds for 2026 NFL Draft

Current No. 1 overall pick odds at FanDuel (as of Monday, Sept. 29):

The new favoriteIndiana QB Fernando Mendoza, +300

Mendoza had a great 2024 season at California, completing over 68% of his passes for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns. He then transferred to Indiana, a College Football Playoff team last year, and he already has 16 passing scores in just five games. Mendoza has been the best passer in college football this year, and he had 233 passing yards and two touchdowns in a win over Iowa on Saturday. Mendoza now has a 73% completion rate and 16 touchdowns to one interception with 1,208 passing yards through five games.

Mendoza has the Hoosiers off to a 5-0 start, and he’s playing better than anyone right now. He’s seen his odds shrink over the last few weeks amid a hot start and is now the favorite at +300 after being +700 a week ago. 

Notable slidesLSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, +460

Nussmeier entered 2025 with a lot of hype after passing for over 4,000 yards last year, but LSU’s offense has been suspect against more notable competition, and the Tigers just lost the Magnolia Bowl to Ole Miss on Saturday for their first defeat of the year. Nussmeier completed 21 of 34 passes for under 200 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He has seven touchdowns to three picks so far in 2025. 

The Tigers’ offense has yet to truly click, and Nussmeier looks far more average than expected. He’s more of a traditional pocket passer, so if the passing game isn’t there, there’s not a ton to write home about here. Nussmeier was +320 last week, tied for the shortest odds in the field.

Penn State QB Drew Allar, +2200

Allar and James Franklin had a chance to get that signature win that’s eluded them at Penn State, but it was to no avail. Allar and the Nittany Lions offense started dreadfully slow against Oregon before heating up late to force overtime. After leading a quick scoring drive in the first overtime period, Allar threw an interception on the first play of Penn State’s second overtime possession, giving the Ducks the win. Allar completed 14 of 25 passes for 137 yards and had 42 rushing yards on Saturday.

Allar has all the physical traits a team can ask for as he’s 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds with mobility, but there’s always been something missing in his game in the biggest spots. That was on display against Oregon this weekend. Allar is now +2200 after being +1300 last week.

Oklahoma QB John Mateer, +1300

Mateer is sidelined for at least a few weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a bone in his throwing hand. He’s been at or near the top of Heisman and NFL Draft odds boards for the last few weeks with the Sooners off to an undefeated start, but his odds are likely to fluctuate quite a bit now due to the injury. His Heisman case is likely done as he’ll miss time, but he can certainly still go first overall. Mateer is now +1300 after being +1100 last week.

Miami QB Carson Beck, +2700

Beck dropped to +2700 from +1500 over the last week and he didn’t even play. The Hurricanes were idle, so Beck was sidelined in Week 5. Beck did have his worst game of the year the last time we saw him, though, completing 17 of 30 passes for just 160 yards and no touchdowns with a pick in a win over Florida. Beck is still off to a good start with a 73.2% completion rate, seven passing touchdowns and 972 yards, and Miami is undefeated.

The top defenderMiami DE Rueben Bain Jr., +1500

Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. is a good example of why it’s important not to look solely at box scores. The star Miami edge rusher has two sacks, four tackles for loss and an interception through four games. Very good numbers, for sure, but he’s been absurd at generating pressures so far and has been borderline unblockable thus far. Football is a quarterback-driven sport. If a quarterback isn’t going first overall, it’s usually an offensive tackle to protect the quarterback, or it’s an edge rusher to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. That’s exactly what Bain is, and he’s now +1500 at FanDuel after being +2000 last week.

The new facesAlabama QB Ty Simpson and Oregon QB Dante Moore, +2500

Welcome to the +4000 or shorter club, Ty Simpson and Dante Moore, both of whom sit at +2500 to go first overall at FanDuel.

Both quarterbacks are coming off signature wins as Simpson led the Crimson Tide to a road upset over Georgia, snapping the nation’s longest active home win streak. Moore used his arm and legs to power the Ducks past Penn State Saturday night. 

Simpson has responded well from Alabama’s Week 1 loss to Florida State, and he now has 11 passing touchdowns and no interceptions along with a 69.3% completion rate after passing for 276 yards and two scores against the Bulldogs. Moore completed 74.4% of his passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns in a double overtime win on Saturday.