Grab a pint of Guinness and let the Irish argument begin.
One month into the season, Notre Dame is the team inspiring the most heated debates when it comes to the College Football Playoff bubble.
The Fighting Irish are outside of the top 20 in the Associated Press and coaches’ polls. They are the nation’s only ranked team with two losses.
And yet they have a 54 percent chance to make the Playoff field, according to the model from The Athletic’s Austin Mock. So naturally, they’re the team worth discussing as we kick off this year’s edition of bubble watch.
Notre Dame started the season 0-2, but its schedule to this point ranks No. 2 in Mock’s strength of schedule. It includes top-six teams Miami and Texas A&M. The Irish lost those two games by a combined 4 points.
Only Florida’s schedule, which includes Miami, LSU and USF, has been tougher.
But it’s the remainder of the schedule that gives Notre Dame a shot to make the field.
Notre Dame will likely be favored in each of its remaining eight games, including Saturday’s matchup with Playoff hopeful Boise State. That game, USC, NC State, Navy and Syracuse are all home games. The only looming trips are Boston College, Stanford and Pitt. Notre Dame’s win probability is above 90 percent for five of those games.
Notre Dame’s remaining schedule
OpponentHome/AwayND win probability
Home
90%
Home
89%
Home
74%
Away
82%
Home
91%
Away
77%
Home
95%
Away
95%
In all, the remaining schedule ranks 71st nationally. It’s hardly a lineup of tin cans, but it’s not a murderer’s row of conference title contenders, either. Mock’s model projects the Irish to finish 9-3 and make the field anyway. A season full of good teams but devoid of great teams looks destined for a bubble at the end of the season full of nine-win teams hoping they did enough.
Whether Notre Dame will have done so will be — and already is — up for debate. Part of the question will be brand bias. Will Notre Dame get the benefit of the doubt a team like Indiana, Ole Miss or Iowa State might not? Will it matter — subconsciously or otherwise — that the Irish made the national championship game last season?
The Irish might have that on their side, but without conference affiliation, they have no way to guarantee a spot. Notre Dame is at the mercy of the committee no matter what. It’ll be a debate that plays out throughout October and November if the Irish keep winning as they did in Saturday’s 56-13 demolition of Arkansas. But ultimately, their most impressive resume points might be losses.
And considering the committee’s new strength of schedule metrics, there’s no way to know how that will play out.
Barring late-season runs by a Boise State, USC, Navy or perhaps Syracuse or Pitt, it’s likely Notre Dame’s resume won’t include a top-25 win. But it would include a host of wins over teams in the top 50. Is that enough?
The metrics say yes. We might find out in December whether the committee agrees.
Stock up: Indiana
The Hoosiers are 5-0 and survived a trip to Iowa after demolishing Illinois. Their reward: a big upgrade to a 41 percent — up from 26 percent — to make the Playoff, and a projected record of 10-2. The Hoosiers’ schedule this year is tougher than last year’s, but the nonconference slate was still Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Because of that, if the Hoosiers drop an unexpected game or can’t beat Oregon or Penn State, they might need help. But the wins over Illinois and Iowa are valuable resume points that put them squarely in the discussion for a return trip to the Playoff.
Stock down: Georgia
The Bulldogs have one loss and a quality win on the road at Tennessee, but the home loss to Alabama moved the Bulldogs straight to the bubble. Mock’s model has UGA with the same probability to make the field as Notre Dame: 54 percent.
Strength of schedule and the committee’s past history of ceding to talented teams mean the Bulldogs will probably be at the front of the line if there’s a logjam of 9-3 teams, but it would be helpful to win some of the big games ahead. Georgia still has home games against Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech — all top-20 opponents — looming. But it also has losable games against Auburn and Mississippi State on the road, as well as Florida.
Bubble watch games of the weekNo. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Florida State’s Playoff odds tumbled to 15 percent after being upset on the road at Virginia. The Seminoles can recover ground with a top-five win, which would also bring them back into the ACC title race.
If Miami beats Florida State:
Miami CFP odds: 95%
Florida State CFP odds: 5%
If Florida State beats Miami:
Miami CFP odds: 82%
Florida State CFP odds: 28%
No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Do we need to take Vanderbilt seriously as a Playoff contender? A win Saturday means the answer is absolutely yes. Alabama figures to be in the mix for the SEC title and an at-large bid, and is in Mock’s field for now. Vanderbilt has a 4 percent chance of making the field for now. That number will skyrocket with a win to reach 6-0.
If Alabama beats Vanderbilt:
Alabama CFP odds: 49%
Vanderbilt CFP odds: 2%
If Vanderbilt beats Alabama:
Alabama CFP odds: 21%
Vanderbilt CFP odds: 13%
Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Notre Dame is on the bubble, but Boise State is way out of the race behind a host of American Conference teams. Nothing would thrust the Broncos back into the conversation faster than a road win over the Irish. The Broncos’ odds are just 9 percent, and they might still need some help with losses at the top of the American, but Saturday might be an elimination game. For both teams.
If Notre Dame beats Boise State:
Notre Dame CFP odds: 56%
Boise State CFP odds: 8%
If Boise State beats Notre Dame:
Boise State CFP odds: 25%
Notre Dame CFP odds: 10%
(Top photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)