Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s London game between the Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings.
Tottenham wakes early—stateside speaking—for a bruiser. Minnesota has already lived the travel week after Dublin, while Cleveland arrives adjusting on the fly with Dillon Gabriel stepping in. The Browns have throttled pace and explosives, allowing 222.5 yards per game with a 29.8% success rate against and just 5 explosive runs surrendered; that tilts this toward field position and red-zone execution. Minnesota’s recent cadence—68.0 plays per game, 38.2% success, 0.034 EPA/play—says they’ll probe with rhythm and motion, try to steal a drive before halftime, and lean on Justin Jefferson to manufacture two chain-flippers. Expect third downs to constrict, Corey Bojorquez’s 46.3-yard average with nine punts inside the 20 to matter, and one clean shot to define a low-margin morning. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 5’s game between the Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Browns defense is the clearest constant here. Through four weeks, Cleveland allows the league’s lowest offensive success rate (29.8%) and ties for the fewest explosive run plays allowed (just 5 total), a profile that squeezes early downs and strangles rhythm. That spine pairs with peak edge juice: Myles Garrett sits No. 2 in PFF pass-rush grade (93.0) with a 34.7% win rate and 22 pressures through four games while Maliek Collins joins him in the top tier (90.9 grade, 21.5% win rate). Minnesota’s line arrives patched together, with injuries piling at center and tackle; that attrition has real consequences against Cleveland’s four-man heat.
Minnesota answers with structure and pace control. Across Weeks 3–4, the Vikings posted a 38.2% success rate, 0.034 EPA/play, and 5.7 yards per play on 68.0 plays per game, a steady if unspectacular rhythm. Carson Wentz has pushed enough air damage to keep safeties honest, and Justin Jefferson still threatens every leverage mistake. The plan lives in quick rhythm, motion, and drive starters that mute Cleveland’s rush to half-beats. If protection survives the first hitch, Jefferson’s intermediate digs and Jordan Addison’s speed splits can still puncture. But the Browns’ profile funnels you into long fields and third-and-7s, and that’s where Tottenham’s air gets cold.
Cleveland flips the script with a quarterback change and a run identity that must actually breathe. Dillon Gabriel debuts against a Brian Flores defense that thrives on mug looks, simulated pressure, and late rotations. Minnesota has racked 11 sacks and two interceptions, with front multiplicity that bluffs pressure and drops into trap windows. The Vikings’ defense sits ninth in points allowed (20.0) and seventh in yards allowed (281.8), a sting that shows up especially through the air (151.5 passing yards allowed per game). Those splits force patience and punish late balls. Cleveland’s antidote is Quinshon Judkins on duo and wide zone to steal stable four-yarders, then play-action slants to Jerry Jeudy, who owns 182 receiving yards and keeps first-read gravity alive. The catch: Minnesota’s run defense is the soft seam (130.3 rushing yards allowed per game), but Flores will crowd fronts and dare Gabriel to win hot and outside the numbers.
Cleveland’s defense suppresses explosives and hits ballcarriers before the line on 62.5% of opponent rushes, which scissors run games into second-and-longs. Minnesota’s offense, while top-ten in scoring, carries 294.0 total yards per game and has leaned on short fields created by defensive stops. The Vikings’ injuries up front remain the friction point; Cleveland’s front can win on time without blitz and still keep seven in coverage. Garrett’s 50.0% single-week win rate last week underscores how quickly a drive can choke when protections slide late.
Vikings vs. Browns pick, best bet
Situationally, the Browns can survive if special teams and red zone hold their line. Field-flipping punts, conservative fourth-down choices, and red-zone clamps are how they’ve stayed afloat while scoring 14.0 points per game. Corey Bojorquez’s 46.3-yard average with nine punts inside the 20 has buffered a sputtering offense. Minnesota’s answer is scripted aggression to steal a touchdown before halftime and a hurry-up series into the two-minute warning. That plan tracks with their recent tempo: 68.0 plays per game with a 38.2% success rate and 0.034 EPA/play over Weeks 3–4. Overseas cadence matters; the Vikings have already lived it once this fortnight, and that comfort can shave a miscommunication or two.
Counterarguments exist. Carson Wentz’s two-game line sits at 523 yards with 4 touchdowns (7.9 YPA) within structure, and Justin Jefferson’s 10-for-126 last week (22 for 326 on the season) can simply win leverage. If Minnesota steals a plus-field takeaway or busted coverage touchdown—they’ve forced 7 turnovers but also given it away 7 times—Cleveland’s chase mode gets grim with a first-start quarterback. Conversely, Dillon Gabriel’s quick trigger (2.65s average time to throw in college) and mobility could nick five first downs in scramble drill and RPO, turning a field-position tug into sustained Browns time of possession. But the defensive bones on both sides, and particularly Cleveland’s 29.8% defensive success rate allowed and Minnesota’s 151.5 passing yards allowed per game, keep this game in a narrow band.
The defensive DNA, the pass-pro injuries, and London’s travel drag all conspire toward a cold, possession-dense morning with drives that wither in the high red. I’m betting under the already ridiculously-low—like, gymnastic-rounds of limbo—total of 36.5.
I see Vikings 17, Browns 13.
Best bet: Browns vs. Vikings u36.5 total points (-120)
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For a prop, Jefferson at 7+ receptions (+150) fits the flow this game should take. Cleveland’s defense suffocates deep shots, allowing the league’s fourth-fewest passing yards (152.3 per game) and forcing opponents to throw short — 68% of completions against them have come within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. Carson Wentz has targeted Justin Jefferson on 29.5% of his dropbacks since taking over, and in Week 4 Jefferson drew 11 targets, catching ten. With Minnesota projected for roughly 35–38 pass attempts and a Browns defense built to prevent explosives, Jefferson should command 10–12 looks again. At that volume, 7+ receptions cashes through rhythm, not luck — it’s how the Vikings move the chains when the rush compresses their pocket.
Best prop lean: Justin Jefferson 7+ receptions (+150)
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