Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s game between the Ravens and Texans on Sunday.

Disaster struck for the Baltimore Ravens (1-3) last week with yet another loss, but a hamstring injury to Lamar Jackson now leaves the team in disarray as they battle through an extensive list of players set to miss time in Week 5. They take on the Houston Texans (1-3), a struggling contender which showed signs of life last time out and now head into Baltimore with a shot at yet another get-right game to build momentum against a shorthanded opponent. Can C.J. Stroud regain his composure, or will Cooper Rush capture his backup magic to lead his team to a much-needed win?

Read on for a Ravens vs. Texans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 5 AFC clash.

Ravens vs. Texans prediction, preview

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens enter Week 5 with a 1-3 record… did anyone see that coming? Late-game collapses led to losses against the Bills and Lions, two top-tier contenders, but Baltimore showed very little fight last week in a blowout loss to a shorthanded Chiefs squad. With the lone win coming against the lowly Browns, fans in the DMV have plenty of reason to worry. Those concerns are only exacerbated by the injury to Jackson, who will miss Week 5, if not more time moving forward as the team arguably works to conceal the severity of his hamstring issue.

The Ravens’ offense has the makings of a world-beater when fully healthy with 32.8 points and 338 yards per game, as well as 6.4 yards per play and a 40.91% conversion rate on third downs. All of those marks fall in the NFL’s top 13 rankings, but you can throw every single one of them out the window heading into this contest without Jackson under center. Why the Ravens signed Rush, a pocket-passer whose style remains dichotomous to their starter’s, remains largely unknown. Now, he steps up to deliver passes to Zay Flowers, who appears to be in the midst of a third-year breakout, as well as Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. He’s nowhere near the caliber of arm Jackson provides though, so it makes sense to expect Baltimore to shift to a more run-heavy approach and try to utilize Derrick Henry more after he was essentially game-scripted out of all but one contest this season.

The defense is an entirely different concern. This unit hasn’t performed well whatsoever this season with 33.3 points and 406.8 yards allowed per contest, both bottom-two averages league-wide. They’ve also given up 5.7 yards per play, and things probably won’t get much better this week even against the struggling Texans. Chidobe Awuzie, Marlon Humphrey and Roquan Smith are all out, and Nnamdi Madubuike won’t return for the rest of the campaign. Kyle Hamilton is also questionable, but he can’t do it all himself. The Ravens are decimated on the defensive depth chart, plain and simple.

Houston Texans

Year three under DeMeco Ryans hasn’t begun as planned. After the Texans won the AFC South in back-to-back years, they’ve started 2025 with a 1-3 record and didn’t appear even somewhat competent on offense until Week 4 when they earned their first win against the NFL-worst Titans. Now, the three losses to the Rams, Buccaneers and Jaguars all came down to the final drive thanks to a strong defense keeping Houston in games, but the franchise must find its identity on both sides of the ball for success.

The Texans sit 29th in points and 25th in yards per game with 16 and 288.8, respectively. Their yards per play mark ticked up to 5.1 this past week, but conversion rates on third down and in the red zone of 29.17% and 33.33% both come in at 31st, far from a recipe for success. Stroud’s played poorly overall, but it’s tough to stand and deliver the ball when faced with constant pressure thanks to one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. Thankfully, the run game took a leap last week when rookie fourth-rounder Woody Marks took over as the lead halfback and popped off with a breakout game, tallying over 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. If he steps up again, his play can help force the defense to respect the run game and in turn open things up for the aerial attack. Two trends to watch are whether rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel see more action at wideout, as well as how first-year offensive coordinator Nick Caley continues to adapt his play-calling.

Even if the offense comes out slow as they did in Weeks 1 through 3, the defense can certainly bail the team out on Sunday against Rush. Houston deploys a very deep and flat-out elite unit on that side of the ball that allows a league-best 12.8 points per game along with just 280.5 yards, fifth-best. The Texans limit opponents to 4.7 yards per play and a 35.85% third-down conversion rate, and they’ve totally shut down the pass with just 178.3 yards allowed per game through the air. A ferocious front seven headlined by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter sits 11th in sack percentage at 7.64% and will pressure the quarterback plenty, and Houston also sits 12th in rushing yards allowed per outing at 102.3.

Ravens vs. Texans pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans come into this contest as -1.5 favorites on the road with -130 odds to win on the Moneyline. Meanwhile, the Ravens are +110 underdogs to win outright at home.

Even with Houston coming up short in three straight weeks to open the campaign before their cupcake win last Sunday, the team ought to be a stronger favorite in this contest. What’s the logic there? Just look at the available talent on the field on both sides. Quarterback is the most important position in sports bar none, and losing an MVP isn’t ever an easy situation to deal with. Rush can’t read the field like Jackson can, nor can he escape the pocket with ease. That spells trouble for the Ravens. Even if they lean more on the run game, the lack of rushing threat in the RPO game with Jackson sidelined means Houston can stack the box a little more than typical against Henry. While the star halfback averages 105.2 yards with 13 touchdowns in 15 career games against the Texans, he won’t have an easy time on the ground on Sunday since everyone in the stadium knows he’ll handle additional touches.

On the other side, this depleted Baltimore defense looks like a perfect opportunity for Stroud to regain some confidence. The cornerbacks are replacement-level aside from Nate Wiggins and if Hamilton misses time, the Texans’ passing attack can pick on the secondary all day long. The Ravens can’t exactly stop the run either, which feels even more exploitable with Smith ruled out. Sure, Marks is a rookie, but the talent appeared obvious in a soft matchup last week and this week’s tilt should have him licking his chops once more. Expect Houston to bounce back with an easy win and build a bit of much-needed momentum. I’m taking an alt spread without a second thought as the visitors win by a touchdown or more.

Best bet: HOU Texans -6.5 (+190)