The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) and the New York Jets (0-4) meet Sunday in Week 5 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Cowboys vs. Jets odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Cowboys and Green Bay Packers battled to a rare tie (40-40) on Sunday night — Dallas’ first since Nov. 27, 1969. The Cowboys covered as 6.5-point home underdogs as the Over (46.5) easily cashed. QB Dak Prescott threw for 319 yards and 3 TDs, connecting with WR George Pickens for 134 yards and 2 scores. RB Javonte Williams added 85 rushing yards and a TD.

The Jets’ rough start continued Monday night as they lost 31-24 to the Miami Dolphins. Despite outgaining Miami by 104 yards (404-300), 3 turnovers proved costly. QB Justin Fields looked sharp in his return from a concussion, throwing for 226 yards and a TD while adding 81 rushing yards and another score. WR Garrett Wilson hauled in 6 passes for 82 yards and a TD, but it wasn’t enough to get New York over the hump.

The Cowboys and Jets last faced off on Sept. 17, 2023, when Dallas rolled to a 30-10 win at home. The Cowboys covered as 8-point favorites as the Over (39.5) cashed.

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Cowboys at Jets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:44 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cowboys -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Jets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)Against the spread (ATS): Cowboys -1.5 (-110) | Jets +1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cowboys at Jets key injuries

Cowboys

RG Tyler Booker (ankle) outCB Caelen Carson (knee) questionableLT Tyler Guyton (concussion) outS Malik Hooker (toe) outDE Marshawn Kneeland (ankle) questionableWR CeeDee Lamb (ankle) outWR Jonathan Mingo (knee) questionableLB Kenneth Murray (knee) questionableRB Miles Sanders (knee/ankle) questionableLG Tyler Smith (knee) questionableWR KaVontae Turpin (foot) out

Jets

CB Michael Carter II (concussion) outDE Jermaine Johnson II (ankle) questionableRB Kene Nwangwu (hamstring) outCowboys at Jets picks and predictionsPrediction

Cowboys 31, Jets 24

I’m backing the COWBOYS (-125) over the Jets, and I feel good about it after what I saw from Dallas on Sunday night.

That tie against Green Bay proved a lot to me. The Cowboys were given little chance heading into that matchup — especially with Micah Parsons returning to face his old team for the first time since being traded to the Packers. Instead of folding, Dallas showed grit, poise, and fight. Prescott played one of his sharpest games of the season, managing the offense with confidence and accuracy. Even more encouraging was the performance of Pickens, who stepped up in a big way with Lamb sidelined. The offense looked more balanced and creative.

The concern for Dallas is obvious — the defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone. Through 4 games, they’ve allowed 33 points per contest, and that’s not sustainable. But in this matchup, I’m betting on their offense to make up for it. The Jets simply haven’t shown they can take advantage of a leaky defense. Their offense continues to self-destruct, turning the ball over 3 times and committing 13 penalties last week against Miami. That lack of discipline is a recipe for disaster against a team like Dallas, who can turn mistakes into points quickly.

This game feels like it’ll come down to who blinks first — who makes the costly turnover, the busted coverage, or the special teams error that flips the momentum. I trust Prescott and the Cowboys’ offensive weapons far more than I trust the Jets’ inconsistency.

PASS.

No need to play with such a small spread, I’ll keep my wager to the moneyline.

BET OVER 47.5 (-110).

The Over looks like the right side here. It’s cashed in 3 of the last 4 meetings between Dallas and New York and both offenses are trending upward. The Cowboys have topped 40 points in 2 of their last 3 games, while the Jets have gone Over in 3 of 4, scoring at least 20 in each of those contests. Both defenses have also struggled, each allowing 30-plus points per game. With 2 capable offenses and 2 defenses that can’t seem to get stops, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout. All signs point toward another high-scoring affair — grab the Over before the number climbs.

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