Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 5’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Washington Commanders.

SoFi’s roof swallows the late sun, and the place crackles with restless voltage. Los Angeles enters with the league’s fourth-best scoring defense and a seven-game streak outgaining opponents, while Washington rides a bruising ground identity and a red-zone heater. The stylistic collision feels pure Sunday: air damage and tempo on one sideline, option stress and body blows on the other. Crowd noise swells; fans hold their breath as the first shadows stretch across the painted end zone. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 5’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Washington Commanders.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Quarterback Justin Herbert opens this game as a precision machine in a hostile pocket math problem. The Chargers average 5.8 yards per play and pass at a 63.64% rate, yet the hinge sits in protection. Herbert completed under 60% the last two weeks with 6.4 and 5.0 YPA under constant heat, including a 45.5% pressure rate in Week 4. Washington brings a 42.6% pressure rate, which can compress reads and mangle rhythm. But the Commanders crack whenever they don’t land: without pressure they’ve allowed 10.3 YPA and a 9.2% TD rate. Herbert’s clean-pocket splits sing at 74% completions and 7.0 YPA. That efficiency sharpens when Quentin Johnston’s vertical gravity stretches coverage — four touchdowns, 337 yards, and a 15.3 average per catch have made him the matchup manipulator. Keenan Allen’s 35 targets and 24 catches create the chain-mover layer, an outlet against zone rotations. Rookie Omarion Hampton has anchored the run game with 270 yards and two scores, forcing safeties to hold in the box. Los Angeles doesn’t need perfect pass pro; it needs enough clean snaps to let those first-read routes ignite against leaky no-pressure windows.

Washington’s counterpunch lives in quarterback Jayden Daniels and a ground game that keeps the clock thrumming. The Commanders run at a 44.68% rate and rank second in rushing yards per game, then finish drives with a 77.8% red-zone TD rate. Daniels returns with QB13 and QB14 fantasy finishes in two starts and the exact trait that unsettles this defense. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 5.9 yards per carry with two touchdowns, and his downhill timing fuels early-down rhythm. Deebo Samuel, with 204 receiving yards and two touchdowns, becomes the short-area compass — motion, jet looks, and YAC leverage that pull defenders wide. The Chargers have surrendered 41.0 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes at 57 and a score, plus chunks from Geno Smith, Bo Nix, and Jaxson Dart. They clamp down through the air at 5.6 YPA allowed and a 2.3% TD rate, but quarterback legs and layered misdirection have nicked them in space.

The broader scaffolding favors a measured score profile. The Chargers allow 4.5 yards per play, fourth best, and permit a 30.8% red-zone TD rate, second lowest. They also sit fourth in points allowed at 17.8 per game. Washington’s defense has drifted, allowing 5.7 yards per play and 22.8 points per game, with coverage stress magnified when pressure misses. Los Angeles runs only 36.36% of the time, yet 69.9% of its yardage arrives through the pass, which aligns with those no-pressure busts. Washington hasn’t allowed points off turnovers yet, a proud four-week quirk that can’t insulate busted coverages forever.

Commanders vs. Chargers pick, best bet

Yes, the Chargers’ tackles are a worry. Being down both starters forces chips, slides, and condensed route families. That can bog early downs if Washington wins with four. Still, Los Angeles has outgained seven straight foes and holds top-five pass-defense metrics against opposing offenses. The defense travels inside this building and tightens inside the 20, where the Chargers’ own 36.4% TD rate has left points on the table. Field goals stack here; patience matters.

Washington’s run rate can drain possessions and protect a defense that springs leaks when stressed vertically. Daniels’ mobility threatens contain and punishes man turns. The Chargers’ red-zone anemia can keep doors ajar. Refutation arrives with per-snap quality and situational edges: Los Angeles produces more efficient yards per play, concedes fewer per play, and converts drives into at least attempts on goal. The Commanders’ explosiveness depends on quarterback scrambles and a rushing engine; the Chargers’ pass shell limits explosives and forces third-and-medium throws into tight windows.

Los Angeles plays 63.3 snaps per game to Washington’s 58.8, which nudges volume toward the home side, but the Chargers’ under trend tracks with red-zone inefficiency and defensive suppression. Washington’s offense thrives in the red zone, yet faces a unit that suffocates there at 30.8%. Those coefficients tug the total downward.

I’m more nervous about it than I should be, but I’m riding Chargers -2.5. Chargers 24, Commanders 20. The blend of clean-pocket exploitation against a defense that hemorrhages without heat, plus Los Angeles’ stingy yards-per-play allowed and red-zone choke points, creates enough separation at home.

Best bet: Chargers -2.5 (-120) vs. Commanders

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For a prop lean, let’s go Quentin Johnston longest reception over 23.5 yards (-115). Washington’s defense unravels the moment its rush misses, surrendering 10.3 YPA and a 9.2% TD rate without pressure. Johnston’s route tree attacks that soft underbelly—four touchdowns, a 15.3 yards-per-catch average, and at least one grab of 30+ yards in every game. His vertical chemistry with Justin Herbert, who ranks seventh in average intended air yards, gives this matchup teeth indoors. The Commanders’ 42.6% pressure rate won’t fully translate against quick-protection and motion looks, and when they show two-high, Johnston gets the free runway he weaponizes. I’d play this to 26.5, trusting volume and air yards over fragile protection metrics.

Best prop lean: Quentin Johnston longest reception o23.5 yards (-115)

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