Dan Johnson breaks down his top player prop bets for Sunday’s Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Commanders game on NFL Week 5.

Los Angeles leans on rhythm and precision—Justin Herbert’s timing with Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen defining their offensive heartbeat—while Washington arrives hoping its front can mask a secondary that keeps springing leaks. The Commanders’ ground balance and Jayden Daniels’ mobility give them flashes of control, but the pace favors Herbert’s efficiency and L.A.’s clean spacing. Every possession will feel fast, deliberate, and edged with consequence—the kind of game where the pocket dictates everything and explosives decide it. Check out how that fits into the prop market for the game by my analysis below.

Here are my favorite player props for this Week 5 NFL game between the Chargers and the Commanders.

Justin Herbert o262.5 total passing yards (-110)

Justin Herbert’s matchup against Washington’s secondary is the definition of a smash spot. The Commanders have been carved up through the air, allowing 248.5 passing yards per game (27th in the league) and surrendering 13.3 yards per completion, the highest mark in football. Over the last three weeks, they’ve been strafed for 313, 289, and 292 yards by opposing quarterbacks—none as efficient or aggressive as Herbert. Los Angeles throws on 63.6% of plays, and Herbert has surpassed 300 yards in two of four starts, with his accuracy holding at 74% completions from a clean pocket and 7.0 yards per attempt.

The Chargers’ offensive rhythm is peaking. They’re generating 5.8 yards per play, a top-five rate, while Washington’s pass rush pressure rate has slipped to 42.6%, well below the early-season average. When the Commanders fail to land pressure, opponents have averaged 10.3 yards per attempt and a 9.2% touchdown rate—numbers that align directly with Herbert’s strengths attacking no-pressure windows. His intermediate efficiency sits near 75% completions, and he leads the league in 11 completions of 25+ yards, precisely the range Washington struggles to defend.

The setup invites fireworks. Los Angeles averages 34 attempts in neutral situations but projects closer to 40 here, facing a Washington defense giving up 20+ completions every week. Washington has also allowed 22.8 points per game and a 30.8% red-zone stop rate, meaning sustained drives and repeated possessions for Herbert. The math stacks perfectly: at his per-attempt efficiency, 38 passes yield roughly 275 yards, and pace can push it over 300. The over 262.5 is a clear value in an environment where Herbert’s precision and tempo should dismantle an already cracking secondary.

Luke McCaffrey o20.5 total receiving yards (-110)

Luke McCaffrey’s emerging slot role gives him one of the cleanest value props on the board. Washington’s depth chart is depleted, and McCaffrey’s snap share has climbed to 63% with injuries reshaping target distribution. He’s quietly cleared this number three straight weeks, averaging 3.7 targets and 23.3 yards per game on an 80% catch rate—a blend of trust and timing that now intersects with necessity.

The matchup supports short-area volume. Los Angeles has suffocated vertical throws, holding opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and a 2.3% touchdown rate, but they concede movement underneath. Nearly 70% of receiving yards allowed have gone to wideouts, especially on quick-outs and option routes—the exact space McCaffrey attacks. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ average depth of target sits below seven yards, and he’s completing 74% of throws inside ten yards of the line of scrimmage. With Daniels’ legs forcing linebackers into spy looks, McCaffrey benefits from soft hooks and crossers underneath zone layers.

Washington’s 44.7% run rate will shrink once trailing; Daniels should throw 28–32 passes, and McCaffrey’s role as a chain-mover becomes critical. His 42% first-down conversion rate on catches ensures he stays on the field in two-minute and third-down packages. Even modest usage—three receptions at 6–7 yards apiece—easily hits this number. The odds (-110) undersell his expanded opportunity and dependable short-route chemistry with Daniels.

Quentin Johnston to score a touchdown (+160)

Quentin Johnston’s touchdown surge has defined Los Angeles’ red-zone identity. He’s scored four touchdowns in four games, converting at a 36% end-zone target rate and commanding 27% of the team’s red-zone looks. At +170, the market still prices him like a rotational piece instead of a featured closer. The Commanders’ secondary, meanwhile, has already allowed five receiving touchdowns to wideouts in four weeks and ranks among the league’s worst at defending high-point throws near the goal line.

Johnston’s physical profile—6’4″, 215 pounds—overwhelms Washington’s corners, who have surrendered a 110.3 opposing passer rating on contested catch attempts. Herbert’s trust is evident: three of Johnston’s four scores have come on second- or third-read progressions where Herbert extended the pocket. The Chargers reach scoring territory on 69.9% of their yardage via the pass, and their red-zone efficiency now sits at 77.8% touchdowns per trip, second-best in football. Those numbers forecast multiple scoring opportunities and guarantee Johnston at least two high-value targets.

Washington’s defense cracks whenever pressure misses. When unable to disrupt the quarterback, they allow 10.3 yards per attempt—exactly the split that inflates Johnston’s jump-ball chances. Keenan Allen will continue to draw double coverage underneath, leaving single coverage on Johnston’s fade lane. His touchdown rate—one every 4.5 red-zone targets—remains elite, and even mild regression leaves him ahead of the odds. Expect Herbert to test that weak boundary corner early in the second quarter and again late in the red zone. Johnston’s chemistry, size, and route leverage make this one of Week 5’s sharpest plus-money touchdown bets. The streak extends to five straight games.