We are almost third-third of the way through the season, and the shape of the NFL standings is starting to become clearer. Is your team in the hunt for the playoffs, or are you secretly looking up college stats and highlights instead of looking towards your next game on Sunday?

As we get closer to the make it or break it portion of the season, it’s time to look at the current ten franchises slated to select first in the opening round of the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh and ask the most critical question in football: should they keep their current starting quarterback, or is time to look at the likes of a Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore or LaNorris Sellers as the next jersey you’re going to purchase next April?

New York Jets: 95% for a first round quarterback

The only winless team in the NFL, Jets fans have already come to terms with the fact that it’ll be another year before they see the playoffs. Although Justin Fields has shown flashes of being worth keeping around and investing in, the Jets are a carousel of despair that seemingly has no end.

The only reason this isn’t 100% is that the Jets have numerous issues, and a quarterback is unlikely to be the best player available at the top of the draft. New York may acquire as many top-end players as possible, hoping it will be enough to build around Fields for the 2026 season.

After selecting Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 draft, this should be closer to 0%, but it’s the Browns. Cleveland, though, loves a shiny new quarterback, and with two picks in the upcoming draft, what’s another young quarterback thrown into the fray with Gabriel and Sanders?

It’s shocking to see the Ravens this high up in the draft selection. Regardless, I don’t see a world where they try to replace Lamar Jackson, whether he’s injured or not. They might go fishing in later rounds for a suitable backup, but they’ll do anything in their power to help Jackson succeed instead of seeking a substitute.

Tua Tagovailoa, when healthy and at his best, is a formidable quarterback in the NFL. But as the Dolphins move ever so closer to a complete reset and rebuild, rumored to cut Tyreek Hill at the end of the season, is Tagaovailoa a part of their plans? In a world where they get a top draft pick and a cheap, young quarterback is staring them in the face, and the brain trust feels like they need a massive change before they’re ousted, the Dolphins could make a big splash.

Sure, they have Spencer Rattler and picked up Tyler Shough in the 2025 NFL Draft, but the Saints know what they are. They’re a team in total restructure, and they won’t be competitive for a playoff position again until they find their next franchise quarterback. They may tank 2026 as well, behind Rattler and Shough, to get a quarterback in the 2027 draft, but coaches and front offices don’t have the luxury of punting a year. If they see someone they like, they’re not going to lose sleep over upsetting Rattler or Shough.

The Geno Smith gamble has been a massive bust, and the Raiders’ front office needs to find something to fix things quickly before everything collapses. After already spending so much money on Geno Smith, it’s unlikely they’ll go for another big veteran signing. Suppose they can maintain this position or even drop lower. In that case, the only chance to garner any positive fanfare on their side is by drafting a young quarterback to pair with Ashton Jeanty and push them as the future duo of the franchise.

Cam Ward is that dude. He’s coming off his first win of his career against the Arizona Cardinals, and the Titans are entirely behind their No. 1 pick from the 2025 NFL Draft.

While the Giants aren’t probably as tied to Jaxon Dart as the Titans are to Ward, they believe they have their quarterback of the future in Dart. Although he’s shown some rookie growing pains, Dart’s already brought the most excitement to MetLife Stadium as any player in the last few years.

Cincinnati Bengals: 1%

Unless the Bengals feel like Joe Burrow can’t stay healthy and do something ridiculous like trade him away for a king’s ransom, there’s zero shot they move on from one of the best players in the NFL. In terms of a backup, though, they could spend on someone with a high upside in the latter rounds.

Kansas City Chiefs: 0%

They’re not going to replace Patrick Mahomes, but can we discuss how remarkable it is that the Chiefs sit in the 10th pick in the draft five weeks into the season?

Madness.