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NFL Week 5 Overreactions

USAT’s Lorenzo Reyes breaks down the best games from NFL Week 5.

Sports Seriously

The Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons play on Monday, Oct. 13, at the Falcons’ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a game on the NFL Week 6 schedule.

Which team will win the NFL Week 6 game on Monday Night Football?

Check out these NFL Week 6 picks and NFL Week 6 predictions for the game, which can be seen at 4:15 p.m. MST on ESPN (stream with FUBO).

The Bills are a 4-point favorite over the Falcons in NFL Week 6 odds for the game, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Buffalo is -200 on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +165. The over/under (point total) is set at 48.5 points.

NFL Week 6 picks: Eagles at Giants | Broncos vs Jets | Rams at Ravens | Cowboys at Panthers | Cardinals at Colts | Seahawks at Jaguars | Chargers at Dolphins | Browns at Steelers | Patriots at Saints | Titans at Raiders | 49ers at Buccaneers | Bengals at Packers | Lions at Chiefs | Bills at Falcons | Bears at Commanders | The Republic’s score predictions

Watch Bills at Falcons live on FUBO (free trial)

Jeremy Cluff writes: “The Bills were held to their lowest offensive output of the season (23 points) in the loss to the New England Patriots. Josh Allen and company will bounce back in a big way against the Falcons.”

Bookies.com: Bet the under in Falcons vs Bills game

Bill Speros writes: “The Bills suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Patriots (+8.5 points) on Sunday night. Drake Maye played the role of Josh Allen. A road game might fix what ailed the Bills in Week 6. The Falcons remain consistently inconsistent. Hard to see Buffalo dropping 2 in a row. The Falcons come off the bye.”

The site’s formula predicts that the Bills will win the NFL Week 6 game against the Falcons.

ESPN: Bills have a 60.7% chance to beat Falcons on Monday Night Football

The site gives the Falcons a 39% shot at winning the NFL Week 6 game, with the remaining percentage accounting for a tie.

Dimers: Bills 26, Falcons 22

It writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bills a win probability of 67%, while the Falcons have a win probability of 33%.”

Sportsnaut: Atlanta Falcons 20, Buffalo Bills 17

Matt Johnson writes: “Our NFL Week 6 predictions have largely been ‘chalk’ up to this point, but that changes for the first of two Monday Night Football matchups this week. The Atlanta Falcons had two weeks to prepare for the Buffalo Bills, and there are two things they have going for them in this matchup. First, Bijan Robinson against a defensive front that allows 145.6 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. Second, Atlanta’s pass defense has limited opponents to 135 passing yards per game this season with a 78.3 QB rating, and Buffalo doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver that really scares a defense. Robinson gets one of his biggest workloads of the year on MNF, leading Atlanta to a clock-controlling stunner win over Buffalo.”

NFL’s highest paid players in 2025: Quarterbacks | Running backs | Wide receivers | Tight ends | Offensive linemen | D-linemen | Cornerbacks | Safeties | Linebackers | Edge rushers | Highest paid NFL players: Overall | By position | By team

Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

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