We have never had more information available to us as fantasy managers. The sheer amount of numbers, metrics and other data that is available helps us make the most informed decisions on who we are putting into fantasy football lineups. Gone are the days of throwing a player into our lineups just because he scored three touchdowns the previous week. (I am looking at you, Joseph Fauria!)

The data for these players portend favorable outcomes, and we should be paying attention. As I always say, efficiency breeds opportunity. With that in mind, let’s dive into a handful of players who are on the rise after Week 3, thanks to their advanced metrics and how that blends with opportunity.

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders

The star of the Commanders’ training camp and their preseason was teed up to be an instant contributor for Washington from the jump in Week 1. While there have been a few bumps in the road, Croskey-Merritt, or “Bill”, has been as advertised and has had a lot of things break his way this season.

Through four games, what we wanted was some separation in the workload for Croskey-Merritt from Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols in terms of snaps and routes. It had been a mess trying to figure out which Commanders running back (if any) to start in fantasy football. It has been a three-way backfield since Austin Ekeler was still healthy; obviously, Ekeler is out for the season, but it became a gross situation where Rodriguez would play in the first two series, and then you know Croskey-Merritt would come in, and McNichols would enter on passing down situations. It was tough to start Croskey-Merritt in fantasy lineups because of that ambiguity.

And then, Week 5 happened.

Croskey-Merritt was on the field for almost half of the snaps for the Commanders, which helped get him a robust and efficient 14 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.

So, it is possible that not a lot of fantasy managers outside of best ball leagues got the benefits of what Croskey-Merritt did in Week 5. But 27 fantasy points and RB5 on the week? When you have a game like this in Week 5 where the intent was to give Croskey-Merritt some separation, it was well deserved based on his efficiency through four weeks.

Players like Rodriguez and McNichols have been efficient players in their careers, but they aren’t players you’re building an offense around. Especially one that figures to contend in the NFC. Croskey-Merritt, on the other hand, warranted those touches and earned the opportunity to get a significant look by the Commanders as the focal point of the offense. So much so that it necessitated the Brian Robinson Jr. trade to clean up the running back room a little, hoping they could get more out of the position. Then Week 5 happened. It seems clear he separated himself from the pack a bit.

Simply put, Croskey-Merritt has delivered. Among 35 qualified running backs so far this season, Croskey-Merritt is first in yards after contact per attempt (4.7) and in success rate at 60.5 percent. Success rate is the percentage of runs that net positive expected points added, or EPA. If you are THAT efficient as a running back, you are going to be on the field. You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube with Croskey-Merritt. It would be coaching malpractice to ask him to share touches and time on the field with less-efficient backs again. “Bill” is the real deal, folks. Let’s ride the wave.

RB Woody Marks, Houston Texans

Since we talked about all the good with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, we have to flip the sheet and talk about Woody Marks, who disappointed the managers who started him in Week 5 after an extremely productive Week 4. The Texans still wanted to get Nick Chubb plenty of involvement, as he put up 61 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries.

It is a little bit scary that the Texans still want to get Chubb on the field so much, considering he barely has one working knee ligament. I cannot help but be a bit skeptical of the decision-making in Houston in terms of how they allocate touches to the running backs when they don’t even know what wide receivers they want to get on the field.

I do think this Texans’ backfield is going to be a shaky situation for those wanting the team to get Marks on the field to the degree we want. Of course, last week’s Marks’ blow-up game certainly is not the expectation; I think that is a bit unrealistic at this point. Houston is not going to get to play the Baltimore Ravens every week.

Going forward, you are probably looking at a spot for Marks where the best-case scenario is that you’re relying on a lot more of the receiving stuff with him and then Chubb taking some of the empty-calorie touches. It is not fun, but Chubb getting carries is going to be very annoying as a Marks manager, as he will continue to be the clear first option in the run game for now.

There are many parallels to the situation (not to the talent evaluation) to where we were last season before the Bucky Irving stuff hit in a major way. It was Rachaad White taking a large portion of work in the early part of 2024, and it took the Buccaneers several weeks to get off White as a clear featured runner until Irving forced their hand.

That is probably where we are going to have to be with Marks and how we think of him. Marks will have to keep repeatedly forcing Houston’s hand to get the desired outcome. Do I think he can do that? He is going to have to be massively efficient – more than he has been this season – to get to that point.

Marks has been sporadic with his efficiency this season despite a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. He is still on the positive side of the ledger in rush yards over expectation with a +21 mark. Besides the RYOE, some of the other per-carry metrics (per NFL Next Gen Stats) are pretty lacking for Marks:

86th (of 110 backs) in yards after contact per attempt (2.8)89th in Rush EPA (-6.6)89th in Success Rate (25%: 9-of-36 carries were positive EPA rushes)

Where Marks HAS been getting rave reviews is in receiving metrics, with a 1.71 yards per route run on just 56 routes. Among backs with at least 50 routes, Marks is sixth among all running backs.

Fantasy managers spent a good chunk of FAAB last week on Marks, looking for him to repeat what he did in Week 4, and you have to be disappointed with the return in Week 5. Obviously, this week against Baltimore is a prime example of where Houston was up big on the Ravens and then salted away the later stages of the game with Chubb and Dameon Pierce, so they didn’t have much need to use Marks too much in that game scenario.

It is funny that I mentioned White a little bit earlier, because that seems to be his production comparison right now, with below-average efficiency in the run game, but strong receiving metrics. And that’s perfectly fine, as long as Marks remains involved. I’m just not sure if we’re going to be getting a league-winner out of Marks this season based on what he’s shown thus far. Houston has the Week 6 to further contemplate this backfield and how it wants to come out of the week off, but it is probably going to be a backfield that is divided equally in the short term.