Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 6’s game between the Jets and Broncos on Sunday.
We’ve reached Week 6 of the NFL season, meaning Sunday brings the 1/3 mark of the campaign to a conclusion. To this point, the New York Jets (0-5) remain winless as they continue fighting for their first victory of the Aaron Glenn era. This may not be the week it comes as the Denver Broncos (3-2) head to London for this international affair after a standout performance last week against one of the league’s top contenders.
Prepare for the Week 6 London matchup with a Jets vs. Broncos prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jets vs. Broncos prediction, preview
New York Jets
The Jets have struggled mightily to begin the first season under new head coach Aaron Glenn. Positive signs have been few and far between thus far as New York ranks 19th and 20th in points and yards per game with 22.4 and 319.4, and the offense fails to string together consistent drives with just a 34.43% third-down conversion rate. This team wasn’t projected to deploy a top offense by any means due to a relative lack of talent outside of Justin Fields, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, but still, it’s tough to feel encouraged. The one thing they’ve done well is run the ball with 144.4 yards on the ground per outing and 5.4 YPC, both the NFL’s third-best marks. However, the passing offense ranks second-to-last in yardage despite Fields taking care of the ball while largely trailing in game scripts. As the staff tries to get the aerial attack in order, second-round rookie tight end Mason Taylor has seen his target share tick upwards over the last two weeks, so he’s a player to keep an eye on in this contest to see if the increased role sticks.
Defensively, the situation feels dire especially in light of how the Jets fielded a respectable unit over the last couple of seasons and that Glenn himself comes from a background on that side of the ball. The Jets are allowing 31.4 points per game, second-worst of any team, and they’re also conceding 347.4 yards with an average of 5.7 yards per play. The pass defense sits 13th in average yardage allowed back is yet to record a single interception in five games, and the Jets also allow 140.4 yards per contest via the ground, 27th overall. Not only have they not picked off an opponent, but this team hasn’t even picked up a fumble yet, leaving a grand total of zero takeaways on the campaign. Those kinds of plays swing games, so it’s easy to see why New York has struggled to stay competitive without creating additional possessions.
Denver Broncos
On the opposite sideline, the Broncos bring pieces of a contending team to the picture. Denver has a much better roster than the 3-2 record implies, and the team showed it with a 21-17 comeback victory last week over the Eagles as well as a 28-3 drubbing of the Bengals in the prior game. Despite some up-and-down play from second-year quarterback Bo Nix, the offense sits 18th in points per game (23.4) and 10th in yards per game (355.2). The Broncos are scoring on 66.67% of red-zone opportunities with an average of 2.8 touchdowns, 10th and 12th-best, so they’re slowly rounding into form. An excellent offensive line and standout play from J.K. Dobbins has the ground attack firing with top-10 marks across the board in yards (140.6) and touchdowns (1.2) per game as well as YPC (5.0), and that’s with rookie RJ Harvey minimally involved. Denver also sits 15th in average passing yardage at 214.6 and Nix took over last week’s game during the late stages to will his team to victory.
On the defensive side of things, few teams can match what the Broncos do. This is truly an elite unit holding opponents to an average of 16.8 points and 288.6 yards per game, a 30.3% third-down conversion rate and a 28.57% red-zone scoring percentage. Denver has a formidable front seven which stops the run with just 88.4 yards allowed per game on the ground while also tallying the NFL’s best sack percentage at 10.88%, largely thanks to DPOY-caliber play from Nik Bonitto. The secondary, still anchored by Pat Surtain II, limits foes to 200.2 passing yards on average and just a 58.14% completion rate as well. This group is quite deep and packed with talent at every position, so despite not forcing a ton of turnovers, they’re undeniably still among the league’s three most fearsome defenses.
Jets vs. Broncos pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Broncos as strong -7.5 favorites with -410 odds on the Moneyline. The Jets are listed at +320 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 43.5 combined points, one of the slate’s lowest.
On one side is an inconsistent Jets offense alongside a poor defense that can’t seem to get stops to save their lives. On the other side is a respectable Broncos attack supported by quite possibly the NFL’s top defense. The odds for this contest certainly make sense given the difference in roster quality at just about every level.
The Denver pass rush should have a field day against New York’s offensive line and pressure Fields throughout the matchup. While the quarterback is great with his legs, this defense should be able to force him to create plays out of structure and keep him uncomfortable enough to make a couple of throws he’ll regret… with the Jets already struggling to convert on third downs, the Broncos’ standout play in those situations will stall out plenty of drives. As Surtain draws the primary CB/WR matchup with Wilson, it’ll be tough for the quarterback to find his top target and hyper-focus on him as shown in past weeks. If the All-Pro corner limits his matchup’s effectiveness while Denver bottles up the run game to limit Hall and Fields on the ground, suddenly the Jets’ other pass catchers will have to step up to keep this game competitive.
Taylor’s a solid tight end and has shown some growth recently, but the Broncos have to feel comfortable with forcing him, Josh Reynolds and Arian Smith to win the game through the air. The Jets are going to be entirely helpless against this defense, and that’s not even taking into account how this dominant Denver run game likely pounds the rock to control the clock and play from ahead against a soft run defense. Weird things tend to happen in these overseas games, but all things considered, this still shapes up as a dominant win for the Broncos.
Best bet: DEN Broncos alt spread -6.5 (-137)
Slight lean: NY Jets under 17.5 team total points (-115)