Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 6’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots.

The dome will rumble, and both teams will feel it in their ribs. New England walks in with fresh swagger after that late kick in Buffalo, a road win that sharpened edges and quieted doubts. New Orleans answers with its own spark, a home victory lit by five takeaways and Rashid Shaheed’s 87-yard lightning strike that still tingles in the rafters. This won’t hinge on pretty box scores. It will hinge on nervy third downs, on snap counts swallowed by noise, on the courage to throw into a keyhole when the game tightens. Expect the Patriots to test the seams and steal tempo. Expect the Saints to press the throttle when the crowd leans forward and the lights feel closer. One team will finish drives; the other will chase. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 6’s game between the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Drake Maye carries New England’s rhythm with 73.9% completions, 1,261 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. He just carved Buffalo for 273 yards, and his offense averages 25.0 points per game and 241.4 passing yards. The Patriots pair that air efficiency with 7.8 yards per pass and a 63.2% red-zone rate. The Saints answer with a defense that allows 204.0 passing yards per game yet yields a 70.6% red-zone touchdown rate. New England stacks 5.8 yards per play and converts 40.4% on third down, good tempo indicators. New Orleans counters with 5.5 yards per play allowed and a 40.4% third-down stop rate, a true bend-but-break profile. Turnovers will color the flow: the Saints have eight takeaways and a +5 margin, while the Patriots have seven giveaways. Every snap will thrum with that tension: clean gains between the 20s versus the courage to punch in six.

Spencer Rattler steadies New Orleans with 67% completions, 990 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. He found Rashid Shaheed for 114 yards in the win, and that 87-yard surge changed the room. Still, the Saints live at 18.4 points per game with 4.8 yards per play and 41.2% in the red zone. Their offense leans to the ground at 116.8 rushing yards per game, but it meets a Patriots front permitting 85.6 rushing yards per game. Rattler has added 123 rushing yards, while New Orleans averages 190.4 passing yards and 5.3 yards per pass. The Saints convert 38.2% on third down and have taken nine sacks through five games. Alvin Kamara has 283 rushing yards at 3.9 per carry and 17 catches for 77 yards. That physical core compresses space, forces third-and-longs, and makes timing throws feel claustrophobic.

Stefon Diggs keeps New England on schedule with 29 catches and 359 yards. Hunter Henry adds 17 grabs, 250 yards, and three touchdowns, a red-zone beacon when leverage tightens. Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t burst yet at 139 rushing yards and 3.7 per carry, but he contributes 13 catches for 154 yards. He has punched in two rushing scores, vital ballast near the goal line. The Saints counter with Chris Olave, who owns 33 catches for 244 yards and a team-high 54 targets, the second-most targets in the league. Rashid Shaheed has 22 catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns, and Juwan Johnson sits at 24 for 221 and one score. That volume collides with a Patriots defense allowing 242.2 passing yards per game and 71% opponent completions, a soft underbelly that invites precise slants and layered digs. New Orleans has also allowed 11 passing touchdowns, an opening Henry and Diggs can pry when the field compresses.

New England defends the scoreboard better than the surface stats suggest. The Patriots allow 20.2 points per game, and that travels. They are 2-0 on the road, and their defense wins on early downs before disguises muddy reads. New England surrenders 327.8 total yards per game and 41.8% on third down, with six takeaways and 11 sacks. New Orleans has allowed 27.0 points per game and 122.2 rushing yards per game, a wobble that threatens time of possession. Yet the Saints keep passing yards allowed low and still squeeze windows with smart eyes. They sit at 326.2 total yards allowed, with 12 sacks and those eight takeaways fueling short fields. The chessboard sways with situational acuity more than sheer yardage piles.

New Orleans just forced five turnovers against the Giants and went 0-for-3 in the red zone. That paradox exposes the fulcrum. Explosives and takeaways may spark the crowd, but finishing drives wins the bet. The Saints have scored 26, 21, 19, 13, and 13 this season for 18.4 per game. The Patriots have lived closer to their number, yet even they carry a defensive blemish with a 75.0% red-zone rate allowed. New England averages 0.4 points per play, while New Orleans sits at 0.3. Patriots games have averaged 45.1 total points, and Saints games have averaged 43.5. One team tightens there, the other loosens, and the total hangs on whether those tendencies persist.

Patriots vs. Saints pick, best bet

You can make the countercase with heat. The Saints rank ninth in passing yards allowed and can squeeze vertical shots if the rush lands. Demario Davis stacks 48 tackles and four tackles for loss and sets the metronome. Carl Granderson has 4.5 sacks with six tackles for loss and two passes defended, and Pete Werner stacks 41 tackles with a sack. Kool-Aid McKinstry grabbed two interceptions last week, part of eight takeaways that include five fumble recoveries, tied for the league lead. The unit limits offenses to 5.5 yards per play and has 12 sacks, so if that pressure marries with sticky coverage, New England’s 17 sacks taken can invite a field-tilt turnover or two. Yet the refutation lives in Drake Maye’s rhythm and pre-snap control. He has recorded 22+ completions in each of the last five following a win and has cleared 268 passing yards in four straight following a win, and his offense sustains via short tempo rather than reckless heaves.

The market reads clean rather than cryptic. The spread holds near New England -3.5 with a total around 46, which tracks with season scoring: 25.0 points per game for the Patriots and 18.4 for the Saints, against 20.2 and 27.0 allowed. Pace and efficiency nudge outcomes toward the mid-40s: New Orleans averages 66 plays per game, second in the league, while New England sits at 0.4 points per play. The push-pull shows up in the red area, where New Orleans finishes at 41.2% and New England’s defense has allowed touchdowns on 75.0% of trips. Add the Saints’ special-teams wobble—Blake Grupe has missed five of 15 field goals—and you get more stalled possessions than fireworks inside the 30.

The difference-maker should emerge under the crossbeams, and I expect Hunter Henry to bend this game. He will work seams against a red-zone defense allowing touchdowns at 70.6% and tilt two short-field third downs that feel like audible gasps. Those conversions should slow New Orleans’ rush and force more two-high snaps toward Stefon Diggs, which will drain minutes and nudge drives toward field goals rather than pyrotechnics.

The matchup funnels to efficiency without avalanche explosives, and the situational math favors a ceiling below the number. The Patriots’ passing rhythm should land in the mid-20s, while the Saints wrestle with red-zone friction and special-teams leakage that keep them tethered. The turnovers won’t replicate five, and New England’s road cadence will squeeze tempo.

Final score projection: Patriots 24, Saints 19. Patriots −3.5 can still cash if the script shakes out, but the edge is thinner and sits on a key number risk. As priced now, the u46.5 is the better bet.

Best bet: Saints vs. Patriots u46.5 total points (-115)

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For a prop lean, I tilt to Drake Maye 24+ completions at +170. His 73.9% completion clip turns 33 attempts into the threshold, and New England’s profile points there: 241.4 passing yards per game, 7.8 yards per pass, and a thin ground game at 95.2 rushing yards per game (27th) funnel volume to quick rhythm. The matchup cooperates. New Orleans allows 71% completions and 204.0 passing yards per game, while both sides sit at 40.4% on third down, a symmetry that breeds sustained drives and short-area chains. Indoors, cadence sharpens; they’re 2–0 on the road with Maye stacking 22+ completions in five straight following a win and 268+ passing yards in four straight in that same post-win window. Pressure exists—New Orleans has 12 sacks, with Carl Granderson at 4.5—but that rush often invites hot throws and perimeter outlets rather than deep holds. The Saints’ 70.6% red-zone TD rate allowed also keeps the ball moving without killing plays, which is perfect for counting catches, not hunting explosives. I back the over on 24+ completions (+170) as the cleanest way to ride this script.

Best prop lean: Drake Maye 24+ completions (+170)

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