Coming into the 2025 season, the common consensus was that this was a make-or-break year for the Miami Dolphins. Sitting at 1-5, it is clear which side of the pendulum they have swung towards. With Tyreek Hill going down with a dislocated knee injury that will keep him out for the season, it seems inevitable that the organization will blow up its current core.
That means virtually everyone’s job is at risk, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
While he hasn’t been the main problem for the Dolphins, Tagovailoa has far from been the solution. Two of their five losses came directly from a critical fourth-quarter interception by him, as he has already piled on seven interceptions through six outings this year. As a result, one analyst believes the team will start anew in the 2026 NFL Draft and find their potential solution under center for the foreseeable future.
Who Will Replace Tua Tagovailoa on the Dolphins?
In six games, Tagovailoa has averaged 202.2 passing yards per game while throwing for 11 touchdowns against seven interceptions. None of those numbers stand out particularly.
But the timing of those interceptions has made his play inexcusable to start the year. Ranking 13th on PFSN’s QB Impact, he has been far from the difference maker that the Dolphins pay him to be with a four-year, $212.4 million contract.
Two years into the contract, Miami might be willing to swallow his deal to start fresh, with Mark Stolte of PFSN providing the perfect replacement in his latest mock draft for 2026. With the fourth overall pick, he has them selecting Fernando Mendoza out of Indiana.
“Fernando Mendoza has been lights out for the Indiana Hoosiers this season and would provide the rebuilt Miami Dolphins with a quarterback who possesses many of the same (positive) traits that Tua Tagovailoa had in his early days.”
Transferring from California this year, he came to the Hoosiers after throwing for over 4,700 yards and 30 touchdowns in his two years with the Golden Bears. He has added two rushing touchdowns each year and has continued that trend this year with Indiana.
But the 2025 campaign has been a revelation for Mendoza. An absurd 17 touchdowns against just two interceptions in six games have been the foundation for Indiana’s success. Moreover, he has removed the one knock against his game at Indiana.
After 41 sacks in the 2024 season, he has just six sacks against him this year. “Mendoza ranks 17th in the FBS in time to throw at just 2.34 seconds, and as Nick Saban pointed out, is one of the best in the nation at executing RPOs (run-pass options).”
There is no guarantee who his head coach will be, with Mike McDaniel a prime candidate to be fired. But Stolte argues, “Mendoza has shown his ability to execute at all levels of the field and has good size and arm talent to go with it.”
So far, Mendoza looks like an idealized version of what the Dolphins thought they were getting when they drafted Tagovailoa. If he can maintain his current trajectory, then Miami might finally have the quarterback it’s always wanted.