The statistics back up the eye test.

Firing an NFL head coach, more times than not, serves as a jolt of energy for a football team. It doesn’t always guarantee a win, but teams typically compete when a fresh face takes over amid a disappointing season.

The Tennessee Titans will try to build on that trend when they host the New England Patriots in a Week 7 matchup at Nissan Stadium on Sunday. Tennessee fired head coach Brian Callahan after 23 games at the helm. Ironically, Callahan took over for current Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, who spent six seasons in Tennessee before he was fired following the 2023 campaign.

Numerous facts and figures were laid out on 98.5 The Sports Hub’s “Zolak & Bertrand” show Tuesday morning, and many told a similar story.

From 2010-2024, interim head coaches in their first game went 20-12 against the spread, co-host Marc Bertrand said while crediting The Sports Hub’s research team. During that span, interim head coaches who made their debut prior to Week 13 went 11-4 straight up.

“They have gone 11-4 if they are brought on as the interim earlier in the season,” Bertrand said. “11-4! Those are on horrible teams that fired their head coaches with at least three if not four games to go.

“That’s real, man. That’s not bogus. That’s real math. Hard math. Difficult math,” Bertrand continued. “So, the Patriots winning this weekend would be going against the trends of fired coaches.”

Bertrand highlighted a few other trends while crediting ESPN Research.

Since 2014, teams that dismiss their head coach midseason are 15-5 against the spread in the first game with an interim head coach. Those teams covered by an average of 4.2 points per game and increased their point differential by 16.3 points on average.

“They have played significantly better in the week following the firing of a head coach,” Bertrand said. “Statistically, this is backed up.”

The Patriots are a 7-point road favorite against the Titans.

One aspect that might help the Patriots in this spot, though, is the fact Vrabel is going against his former team. Because while the Titans have someone to play for in interim head coach Mike McCoy, the Patriots do as well as their head coach returns to face the franchise that fired him.

Vrabel might not put much thought into it, but based on Stefon Diggs’ remarks prior to facing his former Buffalo Bills, it’s fair to assume players understand the importance.

“I think the Vrabel aspect of this makes it bulletproof,” co-host Tim McKone said on the program. “He hates this place.”

McCoy served as Tennessee’s senior offensive assistant prior to his promotion. The 53-year-old is in his first season with the Titans, but has head coaching experience. He was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers — yes, San Diego — for four seasons (2013-2016) and compiled a 27-37 record during that span.