Five teams suffered their first loss this weekend.
Miami, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Memphis and UNLV all fell from the ranks of the undefeated. Only six undefeated teams remain.
Which should we take seriously? Which are biding their time? Are we going to see them all in the College Football Playoff?
We’re taking a closer look and ranking each team on a scale of 1 (will they win another game?) to 10 (make your hotel reservations for the national championship).
BYU
How did they get here? The Cougars were thrown off the short list of Big 12 contenders in the preseason after quarterback Jake Retzlaff left the team and university in July, amid reports he could face a suspension for an honor code violation.
Halfway through the season, the Cougars are tied atop the league standings with Cincinnati anyway. True freshman Bear Bachmeier has been a revelation, and the Cougars are tough on the lines of scrimmage, a trait that made them a Big 12 contender all offseason. BYU’s defense ranks 15th nationally in yards per play allowed. It also doesn’t hurt to play just one ranked team — Saturday’s rivalry win at home against Utah — so far this season.
Any close calls? Many. The Cougars trailed Arizona by double digits in the fourth quarter before rallying to force overtime on a Bachmeier touchdown run with 19 seconds left. They won in double overtime. BYU trailed in the fourth quarter against Colorado and needed a late interception to hold on for the win.
On Saturday, Utah led in the fourth quarter before BYU answered with a pair of touchdown drives.
Will they be in the Playoff? The numbers aren’t positive, mostly because the schedule is about to ramp up and the Cougars haven’t been dominant. The Athletic’s model gives BYU a 19% chance to make the field. That’s third in the Big 12. BYU has trips to Texas Tech and Iowa State in its next two games and a game at Cincinnati next month to face a Bearcats team that’s 4-0 in Big 12 play. The season finale against UCF is the only game left against a team that’s below .500 in the Big 12.
Contender/pretender rating: 4/10
Georgia Tech
How did they get here? Quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes have paced a physical Georgia Tech offense that bludgeoned its way to the top of the ACC standings after closing last season with an upset of Miami and a near-upset of SEC champion Georgia. The Yellow Jackets rank ninth nationally in yards per play.
Any close calls? Several. Georgia Tech trailed in the fourth quarter and needed a 55-yard field goal to upset Clemson in Death Valley. It needed a King touchdown run with 1:44 left and a defensive stop to avoid overtime at Colorado in the season opener. Wake Forest dragged Brent Key’s team into overtime, but it stopped a two-point conversion that would have won the game for the Demon Deacons.
Will they be in the Playoff? It’s looking good. The ACC title race opened up after Miami’s loss to Louisville on Friday, and the league could get an at-large team, too. The Yellow Jackets’ odds jumped to 48% this week after beating Duke on the road. Only Miami has better odds among ACC teams. Georgia Tech has only one ranked team left on its schedule: Georgia in the regular-season finale.
Contender/pretender rating: 6/10
Indiana
How did they get here? The Hoosiers mixed some key transfers with returning starters from last year’s Playoff team. Star wide receiver Elijah Sarratt and defensive back D’Angelo Ponds returned, and Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza has played his way into the Heisman conversation.
Coach Curt Cignetti’s encore looks a lot more like Terminator 2 than Teen Wolf Too. And he signed a long-term deal last week that made him one of the sport’s highest-paid coaches. He’s not going anywhere. Except the Playoff again. Probably.
Any close calls? Sort of. The Hoosiers gave up a 75-yard touchdown run to Old Dominion on the first play of the season. But they won by 13. They trailed in the fourth quarter at Iowa before rallying for a 20-15 win. They won a tight game at Oregon, but didn’t trail in the second half and ultimately won by 10.
Will they be in the Playoff? Yes. Sorry, SEC fans. The Hoosiers have a 97% chance to make the field. Only one team (more on them later) has better odds. After UCLA this week, Indiana’s remaining opponents are a combined 1-15 in Big Ten play.
Contender/pretender rating: 9.5/10
Navy
How did they get here? Quarterback Blake Horvath is on a tear, averaging 6.5 yards a carry. He is eighth nationally in rushing yards per game (106.7), leading all quarterbacks. He’s also averaging more than 12 yards per pass attempt.
Any close calls? The Midshipmen were tied with UAB at halftime and survived a back-and-forth scorefest with Air Force but the closest — by far — came two weeks ago against Temple. Navy rallied from down 10 twice, including late in the third quarter. Horvath scored what looked like a game-tying touchdown on a 51-yard run with 39 seconds to play, but the Midshipmen elected to go for the win and converted the two-point conversion for a 32-31 victory.
Will they be in the Playoff? Probably not. The schedule is about to get serious. Mock’s model gives Navy a 14% chance to make the field and a 22% chance to win the American, but the Midshipmen also have a game at Notre Dame, which beat them 41-14 last season. There are road trips to North Texas and Memphis, as well as home dates against USF and Florida Atlantic. Three of Navy’s final six opponents are 6-1 — and that doesn’t include the Irish.
Contender/pretender rating: 3/10
Ohio State
How did they get here? The defensive dominance has carried over from last season, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been admirable in replacing Will Howard.
Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are the best 1-2 punch at receiver in college football, and freshman Bo Jackson has emerged as the best option in the backfield. The Buckeyes’ defense is third nationally in yards per play and first in scoring defense (5.9 points allowed per game). That has provided a huge margin of error for an offense finding its way after rebooting last year’s title team.
Any close calls? Nope. A 14-7 win over Texas in Week 1 was the closest thing, but the Longhorns didn’t score until the game’s final minutes.
Will they be in the Playoff? Barring a meteor strike, yes. The Buckeyes are 99% to make the field and 92% to earn a first-round bye. They’re the betting favorite to repeat as national champions. Rival Michigan is the only team with a winning record left on OSU’s schedule.
Contender/pretender rating: 10/10
Texas A&M
How did they get here? Quarterback Marcel Reed has taken a big step forward, in part thanks to transfer receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, and one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Aggies have offensive balance and consistency. That’s harder than it sounds.
Any close calls? The Aggies needed magic to erase a 10-point deficit at Notre Dame. The Irish botched a snap on an extra point in the final minutes, and Reed found tight end Nate Boerkircher on fourth-and-goal with 13 seconds left to steal a one-point victory.
Will they be in the Playoff? Probably. Buuuuut, the Aggies were 5-0 in the SEC this time last year and alone at the top of the standings. They didn’t win another conference game, didn’t make it to Atlanta for the SEC title game and weren’t close to the Playoff. Mock’s model has the Aggies at 80% to make the field, but road trips to Missouri, LSU and Texas are still on the schedule, plus a home game against South Carolina. The Aggies look the part but they’ve also won more than 10 games in a season just once since 1998.
Contender/pretender rating: 8.5/10
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.