Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (1-6) and Atlanta Falcons (3-3) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 8 game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: The operative word here is always when. Miami is No. 11 in yards per attempt, but at 28th in the league in attempts, the team has the No. 27 rushing offense. The Dolphins continue to run the ball well with De’Von Achane, as he had 82 yards on 13 carries, including a 46-yard scamper, in last Sunday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns. Rookie Ollie Gordon II has cooled off in spelling Achane.
It was thought the ground game would be a bigger part of the offense in rainy and windy Cleveland, but the Dolphins fell behind in the first half and only fell further behind as matters continued. Center Aaron Brewer is playing through an ailing pectoral muscle up front but anchors the offensive line. The Falcons’ run defense isn’t very strong, 20th in the league. They could be taking a hit with linebacker Divine Deablo injuring his forearm last Sunday night. Atlanta does have Kaden Elliss in the middle, and safety Jessie Bates offers run support as Atlanta’s leading tackler. Edge: Dolphins
When the Falcons run: Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson gets to face the Dolphins’ league-worst run defense. Fantasy football owners of Robinson are salivating over this matchup. It’ll be a huge challenge, for sure, as Robinson is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Atlanta’s run game also works Tyler Allgeier into the league’s fourth-ranked rushing offense. Right guard Chris Lindstrom is one of the best at his position and a Pro Bowl player three years running.
Dolphins linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the NFL in tackles (75) but needs some help. Tyrel Dodson was back in the lineup last week after missing a game recovering from concussion. Rookie defensive tackle Kenneth Grant could be turning a corner after struggling early, and his emergence could help Zach Sieler up front. Edge: Falcons
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is coming off back-to-back three-interception games and has a tall task ahead of him against the No. 1 pass defense. Tagovailoa’s three picks in Cleveland were worse than the previous week against the Chargers. He threw high to Achane in the flat on the pick-six, threw blindly under pressure right at a defender when the offense was backed up and was read by a safety in the middle of the field on the final turnover.
It only gets tougher on Tagovailoa now because, on top of missing star wide receiver Tyreek Hill for the rest of the season, tight end Darren Waller is on injured reserve with a pectoral strain. Jaylen Waddle should draw extra attention in coverage from Bates or Xavier Watts at safety, to help either cornerback A.J. Terrell or Mike Hughes. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Malik Washington need to step up with their opportunities.
Tua is also under constant pressure. Left tackle Patrick Paul was a plus last week for his pass protection against Myles Garrett. Right tackle Larry Borom has had some moments. But rookie left guard Jonah Savaiinaea continues to get mauled when pass-blocking. Defensive end Zach Harrison leads the Falcons with 3 ½ sacks. Miami may miss seeing Jalon Walker, who is dealing with a groin injury. Edge: Falcons
When the Falcons pass: It’s a second straight lefty-on-lefty quarterback matchup. Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is working through an ailing knee, has thrown just five touchdowns and three interceptions in six games of his first full season as a starter, but he leads the No. 10 passing offense. Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver could try an array of blitzes against the young passer, if his defense can stop the run first.
Drake London is quickly becoming one of the better receivers in the league with 38 receptions for 469 yards and two touchdowns. The Miami secondary will hone in on him among the receiving corps, as Darnell Mooney on the other side has just 10 catches this season. So if it’s Rasul Douglas or Jack Jones, in a rotation with Ethan Bonner, getting London, that defender will have his hands full. Storm Duck could also factor in on Douglas’ side. Penix throws plenty to Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts, though, and we know how the Dolphins historically struggle covering tight ends.
Veteran Jake Matthews is one of the more consistent left tackles in the NFL, so Bradley Chubb takes his team-leading four sacks into a matchup with him. If the Dolphins can force Penix into tough passing downs, look out for Weaver’s blitzes applying pressure from different angles. But Miami must be mindful of the dump-off to Robinson. Edge: Falcons
Special teams: The Dolphins had a costly turnover in this phase last week, as Dee Eskridge fumbled away a kickoff between Browns touchdowns. But Falcons kicker Parker Romo has missed three kicks this year to Riley Patterson’s one, albeit saved by a penalty on a miss that doinked off an upright in Cleveland. Jake Bailey has punted better than Atlanta’s Bradley Pinion. And Washington has gotten more in the return game this season than anyone the Falcons have trotted back there. Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles: Nothing’s going right for the Dolphins, and some of the aforementioned matchups are not ideal. It’ll take a significant shift with Miami successfully doing things the team hasn’t done well all season. The prospect of a second consevutive road game, against a decent opponent, and with a game the following Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens to keep in mind all doesn’t bode well. Edge: Falcons
PREDICTION: Falcons 34, Dolphins 13
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