PHOENIX – Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb launched his campaign for Congress in strong position, according to a local pollster, but there’s a big X factor looming over the race.
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, believes the 2026 race in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District (CD5) could boil down to one thing: President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
“Mark Lamb comes in with some advantages, but those could be literally flipped on their head if Trump comes and endorses someone else,” Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Wednesday after Lamb, a Republican, declared his candidacy.
CD5 is a solid Republican district that covers a large part of the East Valley and extends into Pinal County. The GOP primary winner will be heavily favored to win the seat currently held by Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running for governor next year.
Noble said Lamb has name recognition on his side as a former U.S. Senate candidate and sheriff in the state’s third-largest county. He’s also strong on immigration, the top issue for Arizona Republicans.
“I would say one of the downsides, though, is that he’s not known as a terrific fundraiser, so I think that’ll be interesting to see,” Noble added.
Who is Mark Lamb’s strongest competition in Arizona CD5?
As of Thursday morning, eight Republicans had filed statements of interest for CD5. Noble believes former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely is Lamb’s strongest competition in the current field.
Feely, who kicked off his first run for office in April, has name recognition on his side as well as a good relationship with Trump, Noble noted.
“Jay Feely’s probably right there — either neck and neck or around there — but I’d say Lamb probably starts in the better position,” Noble said. “But we still have a little less than a year to go until Election Day, so a lot can change from now until then.”
KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Heidi Hommel contributed to this report.
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