Inside: Aaron Rodgers’ Sunday game against Green Bay, your thoughts on Mike Tomlin, what film says about Tua Tagovailoa and a preview of Bears vs. Ravens.

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Rodgers vs. Packers: ‘It’s not a revenge game’

There’s an unwritten rule in sports journalism: When a star player first competes against their old team, we have to ask, “Does this one mean a little more?”

As the quarterback for Green Bay’s division-rival Vikings in 2009, Brett Favre answered that question after his first game against his former Packers. It was certainly special.

“I was about as nervous as I’ve ever been going into a game,” Favre said at the time. “I didn’t think I would be. As the week progressed, I thought I would be fine. But when I got to the hotel yesterday, it dawned on me.”

Across what many consider the best revenge game(s) in NFL history, Favre’s Vikings swept their season series over Green Bay, 2-0. Favre threw for 523 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the two wins. “It’s sweet, but it has nothing to do with revenge,” he added.

This week, Aaron Rodgers has taken a similar stance ahead of his first meeting against the Packers since leaving them after 2022 (yep, he never faced them as a Jet). Just a few of his glowing quotes about Green Bay:

💬 “I don’t have any animosity toward the (Packers) organization. Obviously, I wish that things had been better in our last year there … [but] this is not a revenge game to me. I have nothing but love and appreciation for the fan base, for the city of Green Bay.”

How we got here

Let’s rewind.

When the Packers drafted Jordan Love in 2020’s first round, Rodgers’ days in Green Bay felt numbered. The veteran, having been on the other side of a similar move 15 years earlier, said he respected the decision.

The end officially came when, like Favre before him, the Packers traded a 39-year-old Rodgers to the team where he could do the least damage (the Jets) for a haul of picks that would become:

DE Lukas Van Ness (No. 13 overall)
TE Luke Musgrave (42)
LB Edgerrin Cooper (45)
S Evan Williams (111)
OL Jacob Monk (163)
K Anders Carlson (207)

Most importantly, it allowed Green Bay to start Love, an upgrade over Rodgers at that point. Love would lead the Packers within three points of the NFC Championship game in his first year as the starter. Still only 26, he has mostly outplayed Rodgers since the trade:

In Wisconsin, Rodgers was known to bluntly hold teammates to account, but after 18 seasons, most have shared fond memories. “We had a great relationship,” said coach Matt LaFleur. “I appreciate him always,” said Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon. “He was a great guy, great teammate,” added center Elgton Jenkins.

Favre’s first game against his former team came in Minnesota, sparing him a night full of boos. (Those came about a month later.) Likewise, Rodgers and the Steelers host Green Bay this Sunday night. It might not be about revenge for Rodgers, but a win would surely be extra sweet.

As for Rodgers’ current coach?

Rodgers and Mike Tomlin are quick to invoke high standards, but in a city where the recent standards have just been 10-7 regular seasons and playoff losses, changes could be inbound. Here’s how your fellow Scoop City readers voted in our poll this week:

54 percent: Pittsburgh should keep Tomlin.
42 percent: The Steelers should move on.

Ironically, more AFC North fans — especially in Pittsburgh — were keen on seeing a Steelers change. The strongest cases were similar:

Pittsburgh’s defense struggles against top offenses, and Tomlin rarely makes in-game adjustments. “All the elite and smart quarterbacks (like Joe Flacco) tear up the defense because they have seen it for years.” — Camden T.

One fix many readers suggested? Keep Tomlin, but hire an established defensive coordinator from elsewhere, one who brings creativity and a modern-day approach to the game. Tua Tagovailoa also needs a fix, as Ted Nguyen explains next.

What Ted’s Seeing: Miami’s Tua problem

From my story on Tagovailoa’s struggles and contract situation, coauthored with Daniel Popper: 

Here, we’ll focus on the Dolphins quarterback’s problems on the field, though his nightmare season extends off the field.

In seven games, he has thrown 10 interceptions, and according to PFF, ranks second in turnover play rate (5.2 percent) among quarterbacks to start all seven games; only the second-year Spencer Rattler (5.3) has been worse.

Tagovailoa’s physical skill set is limited. He’s only 6-1, has a weak arm by NFL standards and isn’t particularly mobile. This condenses the field and limits the plays that can be run for him.

On this play against the Browns, Tagovailoa attempted to look off the defense by staring down a drift route (see the white shading below), to open up the seam window on the opposite side of the field (see the green arrow).

The Browns were in a three-deep zone with a free safety in the middle of the field. As Tagovailoa dropped, he indeed stared down the drift route to get that free safety to jump it (see the right edge of the Browns logo, at their 45-yard line).

That safety leaned in the direction of Tagovailoa’s eyes, and it appeared the quarterback had enough room to throw the seam as he began his throwing motion. But the ball took too long to arrive, and the safety easily intercepted it. Watch Tagovailoa’s helmet closely.

It appears defenses have solved the sixth-year QB. Against man, he can easily find mismatches with his speedy receiving options. He ranks second in EPA against man coverage, but 35th against zone.

Teams are simply refusing to play man against the Dolphins, who see the most cover 2 zone (24.5 percent) and lowest percentage of man (15 percent).

Given how much the Dolphins are paying Tagovailoa, he has to be better. The full story explains how the Dolphins could move on. 

Week 8 watch guide

Make or break: Bears at Ravens (-6.5)

Across their last four games, the Bears are 4-0 and the Ravens are 0-4. Yet the latter is favored on Sunday, largely due to the expected return of All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson. They’ll also be desperate, as a loss could end their playoff chances.

Can Chicago put up a fight? Ben Johnson entered the bye intent on improving the run game, and in the two games since, the Bears lead the NFL in rushing yards, trail only the Bills and Colts in rushing success rate (54 percent) and have more runs of 10-plus yards than any other team (14).

Key matchup: D’Andre Swift vs. Ravens run defense.

As Ted mentioned in his Week 7 film review, Chicago’s recent success on the ground is due to scheme, improved line play and patience from Swift, who is averaging 7 yards per carry in their past two games. They “simply identified a bunch of small details they knew could make a big difference,” explained Dan Wiederer in his story on the Bears success.

Advantage: Bears. Baltimore entered their bye ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed (134.3), a concern for John Harbaugh, given that stopping the run has been a hallmark of most Ravens defenses.

Or not? Baltimore has made some tweaks, like moving star safety Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage, which helped limit the Rams to just 74 rushing yards in Week 6. This week, the Ravens get back their best linebacker, a former Bear, Roquan Smith.

Plus, Baltimore has a big run-game advantage of their own, as Derrick Henry (and Lamar Jackson) face a defense allowing the second-most yards per carry (5.3) across the season. It could be a big day for both.

Extra Points

➕ Best acquisition? For the 49ers, that might be defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who’s gotten his groove back.

🤷 No matter. As seems typical for any Browns rookie quarterback, Dillon Gabriel has the odds stacked against him. His journey, mostly via minivan, prepared him.

👀 Rematch. What’s changed since the Eagles were upset by the Giants? Only about four Pro Bowl-caliber players, as Zach Berman explains.

▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Beef between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson.

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