Stan Son preps you for the Monday Night Football contest between the Commanders and Chiefs with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Both the Commanders and Chiefs made the championship game in their respective conferences last season and much was expected from both for this season. Kansas City lost its first two games and the sky was suddenly falling, but those contests were against the Chargers and Eagles, so no shame there. All is right with the world now, though, as the Chiefs have won four of their last five games, including two straight.

Washington has lost two straight and notched only three wins on the season, as Jayden Daniels has missed two games and will miss his third on Monday night. Marcus Mariota on Monday. Say that fast 10 times.

Kansas City is unsurprisingly sporting one of the best pass offenses in the league. Yeah, that Patrick Mahomes guy is pretty, pretty good, dealing with an injured wide receiving group and a Swiftie at tight end. The Chiefs are fourth in EPA per dropback with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Surprisingly, Kansas City is third in EPA per carry, but much of that is due to Mahomes, who has rushed 42 times for 250 yards and four touchdowns.

Washington has not been good on defense, posting the ninth-highest EPA per dropback with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. The unit is 16th in pressure rate and the 19 sacks are tied for sixth-most. Washington blitzes at the ninth-highest rate and Mahomes hasn’t been great against the blitz this season, posting an EPA per dropback of -0.37 with a 55.2% completion rate, five touchdowns and two interceptions. But it’s Mahomes.

On the ground, Washington is 15th in EPA per carry, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns.

On offense, Washington is 19th in EPA per dropback, but two of those games were with Mariota starting. The rushing attack is fifth in EPA per carry, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and nine touchdowns, but the quarterbacks contribute to the lofty totals.

Steve Spagnuolo is a wizard orchestrating defenses and he has the Chiefs with the fifth-best EPA per dropback. The unit has allowed only seven passing touchdowns while racking up four interceptions. Kansas City doesn’t apply a ton of pressure despite blitzing at the sixth-highest rate, as the 18.8% pressure rate is 10th-lowest. The rush defense isn’t great, posting the 14th-highest EPA per dropback with six touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry.

DraftKings Sportsbook has KC -11.5 over WAS with the total at 47.5.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5 Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (WAS @ KC)

Captain’s Picks

Patrick Mahomes ($16,500 CP): Is Mahomes the best dual-threat quarterback in the league? The 250 rushing yards are only four fewer than Josh Allen, although Mahomes has played one more game. The four rushing touchdowns are only one behind Jalen Hurts for the most by a quarterback. Oh, he’s also a pretty good thrower of the football, completing the third-most passes for the fourth-most yards and fifth-most touchdowns. Mahomes has put up at least 23 FPTS in all but one game with two games over 30 FPTS.

UTIL Plays

Rashee Rice ($9,600): Rice only played 41% of the snaps last week in his return, yet led the team with 10 targets, catching seven for 42 yards and two touchdowns, good for 23.2 FPTS. He will likely see an increase in snap rate and still be peppered with targets from one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Hollywood Brown ($5,400): Brown only played 33% of the snaps last week, but he received four targets with two of those in the red zone. On the season, he’s scored at least 8 FPTS in every contest with three over 10 and a high of 20.5 FPTS. It’s a Chiefs onslaught for me and Brown’s price is palatable.

Deebo Samuel Sr. ($9,000): I have to play one Washington player. Shrug. A ringing endorsement! Samuel is not cheap, so the risk/reward isn’t great but I think he has the best path to putting up points for Washington. I have no faith that Mariota can deliver the ball to Terry McLaurin. Deebo runs the quick hitters over the middle of the field and has some rushing equity.

Fades

Terry McLaurin ($8,400): McLaurin hasn’t played since Week 3 and now has Mariota throwing him the ball. In Week 3 with Mariota under center, McLaurin caught three of four targets for 74 yards, but that was against a feeble Raiders defense. This Chiefs defense is a different animal. I prefer the quick hitters to Samuel instead.

THE OUTCOME

Chiefs onslaught.

Final Score: Chiefs 34, Commanders 13