It’s Halloween, and that means one thing: trick or treat?

We are halfway through the NFL season, and there are still a slew of questions we need to answer before we award the Lombardi trophy in Northern California next February. Some teams are surprising, but are they for real or just a rotten apple slice snuck into your bag between the good candy? Let’s look at four, and I’ll tell you if I think they’re for real (treat) or if by the end of the year you’re wondering who tricked you into believing they were the real deal.

Let’s start with the story of the 2025 season in Indiana. The preseason talk about this team was all about how they were too soon to turn away from Anthony Richardson, their young quarterback who had more raw skill in his left leg than some of the starting quarterbacks in football have in their entire bodies. They signed the maligned Daniel Jones, and it was a season when many pundits and even their fans thought it was a throwaway year to look toward drafting another rookie in the 2026 draft.

Instead, Jones has turned into an MVP candidate, Jonathan Taylor is the most dynamic playmaker in football, and they’re running over every team they face. While I am still cautious of calling them the Super Bowl favorites when the NFC is looking the most stacked it’s been in ages, and the Kansas City Chiefs are looking like the dynastic team they are, I can confidently say this Colts team is for real. They are a legitimate contender, and regardless of how the season ends, the saga of Daniel “Indiana” Jones has earned itself at least a few sequels.

I want to like Jacksonville. They’re a fun, scrappy team that every so often pops up out of mediocrity to show some fight before then having a few rebuilding seasons. Trevor Lawrence was the most coveted college prospect since Andrew Luck and hasn’t completely reached anywhere near his potential ceiling, but, like the franchise itself, he’s a fighter. The entire organization is a bunch of scrappers, tripping and falling at times, but always getting up and proving others wrong.

Alas, with first-round two-way player Travis Hunter possibly done for the year, and Brian Thomas Jr. regressing mightily, I don’t know if this team has the firepower to contend in the AFC. They were blown out by a good Los Angeles Rams team in their last outing before a bye, and even though they upset the Chiefs, it’s hard to rate them as the real deal. Liam Coen is a good head coach and can turn the franchise around, but I think they need a season or two of seasoning before they can truly contend for anything, except possibly a quick wildcard blowout in the playoffs.

Treat: Seattle Seahawks

Newsflash: Sam Darnold is good. He’s really good. The narrative last season, when he wilted in the playoffs, was that the Minnesota Vikings took a journeyman and turned him into a serviceable quarterback having a career season.

Now, halfway through 2025, and seeing how the Vikings have failed to do anything similar with Carson Wentz and how Darnold has thrived in Seattle, it’s obvious to see that Darnold is more than a one-system quarterback. Although he might never be a top-five quarterback in the league, Darnold is a player who, with the right weapons and a proper defense, can lead a team deep in the playoffs. The Los Angeles Rams defense, which crushed him in the 2024 playoffs, has blossomed into one of, if not the, league’s best pass rushes.

On the whole, Seattle has opened a window of contention that can last for the next three to five years, depending on Darnold’s durability and growth. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who embarrassed anyone who attempted to guard him in college, is fulfilling his potential as one of the best wideouts in football, and paired with a stellar defense, the Seahawks can go deep in January.

Trick: Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s the Mike Tomlin Steelers. We know how this story ends. They find a stopgap quarterback, make enough decent turnover plays to steal a few games, and they play hard enough to make the playoffs on the final day or barely miss out. If they make the playoffs, they then implode because of a fraudulent offense, and their defense can’t do enough to win games.

The worst thing about this iteration of the Steelers is that their defense, the highest paid in the NFL, isn’t good. They are overpriced and deliver like a group paid in pennies and fast-food coupons. Once a defense that could hold up a so-so offense has now been circled by teams as a game where their quarterbacks can have a standout performance. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been terrible in Pittsburgh, but it feels like the same story we’ve seen dozens of times before in a different pattern of wrapping.

Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas. It doesn’t matter. The Steelers can’t trick me. Until they find their successor for Big Ben under center, we’re going to continue in this frustrating cycle of mediocrity.