Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 9’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints.

SoFi will glitter like polished steel, and the building will buzz with bye-week oxygen and postseason appetite. Los Angeles returns with fresh legs and a rested script after a two-week, 52-10 crush of Baltimore and Jacksonville. Matthew Stafford’s cadence steadies the room, while Davante Adams’ London hat trick still echoes in the highlight loop. Puka Nacua’s ankle cleared during the week, and Rob Havenstein’s return calms a line that values rhythm. New Orleans arrives in reset mode, a public pivot to Tyler Shough under Kellen Moore’s first-year stewardship. Veterans preach patience as a 1-7 group tries to change the week’s tone without changing its identity. The stakes land plainly: a 5-2 contender guarding position against a traveler searching for a foothold and a future. The lights feel brighter after a bye, and the crowd expects composure, not chaos, when the gates swing open. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 9’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The 49ers just played their fewest-of-the-era snap day, holding the ball for 18:00 on only 44 plays, which distorts any clean read. That context matters because Kyle Shanahan’s structure runs on rhythm, shifts, and motion volume that typically generate top-five play counts. The passing snapshot in Houston tells the stress story: 37 pass plays, 15 pressures, one sack, a 40.5% pressure-allowed rate on the day that jammed second-down sequencing. The antidote sits in the middle of the field where George Kittle ran a route on 90% of dropbacks last week, a usage flag that usually precedes seam shots and glance tags. The matchup accepts that invitation because New York has coughed up 86 explosive plays and 26.9 points per game, with overall EPA/play allowed sitting 30th.

New York’s defensive personality leans into confrontation, not disguise. Wink-style man coverage shows up at 38.6%, the league’s second-highest rate, which dares isolation and forces precise answers against press and trail. Shanahan answers that leverage by condensing splits, stacking releases, and spamming across-formation motion to peel defenders off landmarks. That’s where Christian McCaffrey’s gravity pinches pursuit and where Kittle’s 90% route rate becomes strain on nickel and safeties. The broader shape still favors San Francisco’s pass game over brute rushing volume, yet the Giants remain a plus matchup for backs, allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position. With the 49ers team total projected at 25.5, the math tilts toward balance returning and explosive rate stabilizing.

The other sideline holds its own leverage points. Cam Skattebo’s absence would flatten most teams, yet Tyrone Tracy Jr. already soaked up a 78% snap share with nine of twelve running-back opportunities after the injury. That baton matters because San Francisco’s injury-thinned defense has allowed the seventh-most schedule-adjusted points to backs, creating outlet volume and angle routes that keep New York on schedule. The Giants’ target tree tightens by necessity, and Wan’Dale Robinson profiles as the chain mover who punishes spot-drop windows. Against zone he’s logged 211 routes with a 20.4% target rate and 0.35 PPR per route, numbers that pair cleanly with a 49ers defense that plays zone at an above-average rate and has allowed 7.3 yards per target with first-down or touchdown outcomes on 31.6% of targets.

Trenches decide everything, and both fronts arrive with texture. San Francisco’s offensive line grades in the top third entering Week nine, slotted twelfth in composite rankings, but the Week eight tape showed interior leakage during that 15-pressure afternoon. New York’s pass rush carries a 75.6 team grade, eighth-best, which can twist protections and force quicker answers. Conversely, the Giants’ line sits fifteenth and has battled spotty pass protection through the season, which amplifies how simulated pressure and interior picks can create free runners. Personnel packages will dictate answers, yet both lines have enough strength to trade blows without collapsing.

Saints vs. Rams pick, best bet

The counter lives where pride always lives: New Orleans’s corners can muddy intermediate windows, and that pass defense allows only 196.0 yards per game. Demario Davis still drives fits, and Carl Granderson has flashed backfield disruption. Moore can stage clean launch points, throw triangle reads to the flat, and use Alvin Kamara as a pressure valve. That’s the argument. Now weigh it against the Rams’ pressure, Los Angeles’s coverage integrity, and the Saints’ thin explosive profile. New Orleans has managed 3 games over 20 points, and the Rams’ red-zone wall forces field goals more often than not. Add the Saints’ 12 giveaways and the Rams’ 6 fumble recoveries, and turnover gravity drifts toward the favorite.

The spread sits in two-touchdown territory for a reason, and the total toggles around 44. Los Angeles stands 5–2 against the spread, which underlines day-to-day competence. New Orleans sits 2–6 against the spread with four straight unders, which echoes the offense’s anemia. The Rams have seen 3 overs in 7 games, but their scoring defense and recent form argue for suppression rather than chaos. The Saints average 41 combined points across their games with opponents, which sits below this total. That math blends with structural edges, not just vibes.

I hear the pushback: this number is fat, unders have traveled with New Orleans, and variance can trip heavy favorites. I answer with trench truth and drive math. The Rams sit 3rd in scoring defense, own 26 sacks, and close the goal line with a 40.0% touchdown rate against. The Saints’ offense has cracked 3 touchdowns only once, and their run game sits at 93.6 yards per game with Kamara at 3.6 yards per carry. Short fields favor the Rams because Stafford converts in plus territory and doesn’t give it back. If New Orleans chooses patience, the clock bleeds; if they chase, the rush eats. Either way, possession quality leans blue and gold.

I’m playing the total, not the lumbering spread. The structure points under because Los Angeles smothers possessions while New Orleans struggles to finish drives. The combined scoring averages land near 41, and both recent form and red-zone data agree with restraint. The Rams’ ability to script leads then squeeze pace further starves total plays. The Saints’ defense can force a punt or 3, but their offense won’t cash enough trips to threaten a shootout. Under 44 is the read that respects both environment and identity.

Los Angeles stacks drives, leans on protection, and compresses New Orleans’s options until the 4th quarter becomes procedural. The rookie shows grit, but the building and the rush take their toll. I’m betting under 44 with conviction. Rams 27, Saints 13.

Best bet: Rams vs. Saints u43.5 total points (-110)

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For a prop lean, I prefer Davante Adams to score because Los Angeles weaponizes him inside the 20 and he already owns 6 touchdowns. McVay stacks, motions, and isolates him in condensed space, turning fades and slants into clean, one-on-one wins. Jacksonville felt that geometry; Adams punched in three touchdowns before the bye and the trust looked absolute. Volume steadies the edge too, with 8+ targets in six of seven games fueling red-zone sequencing. New Orleans will squat on crossers, but condensed-split iso still creates leverage at the pylon. Market sits around -110; I’d rather back that anytime price than chase a thin side in a wide spread.

Best prop lean: Davante Adams to score a touchdown (-115)

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