Fresh off a bye week that came at a great time for the Detroit Lions, Dan Campbell’s gritty bunch hosts the Minnesota Vikings in a 1 p.m. kickoff. The 5-2 Lions are looking to keep the recent dominance over Minnesota rolling in the first meeting of the NFC North foes in 2025.
The Vikings are 3-4 after dropping two straight following their bye week. They’re making an injury-necessitated quarterback switch to J.J. McCarthy, who will make his third career start as he returns from an injury of his own.
On paper, the Lions look like they deserve to be the 8.5-point favorites they are, perhaps even higher. Yet the Vikings do present a different type of challenge, one that can upend the Lions if they don’t play to their standards.
Here’s what is rolling through my head about the game as the Sunday morning coffee kicks in after an extra hour of sleep from the end of Daylight Saving Time.
Why I think the Lions will win
Foremost is the rest factor. I’m a big believer that Campbell and the Lions learned their lesson from not properly prepping for their playoff game against Washington when last they had a bye week. Campbell has proven time and again that he understands how to adapt and correct prior mistakes. The bye got a lot of key players a lot healthier too. Taylor Decker, Terrion Arnold, Brian Branch and many other walking wounded should be rejuvenated with a week of rest and rehab.
Offensively, Detroit has a major schematic and stylistic advantage over Minnesota. A few of them actually. Most notably, the Lions are the best passing team in terms of EPA in the NFL against the blitz. No defense blitzes more than Minnesota. We saw this manifest in Detroit’s two wins a year ago over Brian Flores’ blitz-reliant defense, and this year’s edition of the Vikings blitz effectiveness isn’t nearly as successful.
Another key advantage comes in how and where the Vikings play their safeties. Josh Metellus and Theo Jackson are a decent starting pair, and Harrison Smith remains a quality No. 3 who plays a lot. The Vikings deploy them in a two-high shell at a higher rate than any other team uses that scheme. Guess which offense is the best at attacking the two-high look? Yep, Goff and the Lions.
Defensively, the Lions continue to do a very good job at generating pressure up front. They also limit the big play very well; only Miami (?!?) prevents big plays (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+ yards) at a better rate than the Lions. The Vikings offense is almost completely reliant on the big play to score. Minnesota ranks 9th in explosive play rate on offense. They have to try and maintain that with McCarthy making his third career start and the offensive line patched together with athletic tape and knee braces.
There’s a general theme with Minnesota that was also true to a lesser extent with Tampa Bay: the things the Lions don’t do particularly well are things the Vikings aren’t very good at attacking. Detroit’s red zone defense hasn’t been good (63 percent TDs allowed, rank: 24th), but Minnesota’s red zone offense scores TDs on just 54.5 percent of possessions. That’s almost 20 percentage points less than Detroit.
The Lions also don’t defend the short pass over the middle particularly well, ranking dead last in EPA on short passes. But these Vikings aren’t good at attacking there, ranking 29th in EPA on such passes and also attempting them less than all but two other teams. Maybe that changes with McCarthy in, but that’s not exactly where he thrived when he was at the helm at Michigan, either.
What concerns me about the Vikings
Minnesota’s defense is a high-risk/reward operation. While the Vikings rank 19th in scoring defense, they’re fourth in generating pressure on the opposing QB (the Lions are 2nd). And though they blitz a lot, their non-blitz pressure rate is a respectable 11th (the Lions are 2nd here too). That means they’re apt to get some pressure on Goff, who has not been good when under pressure.
Even with Goff at the top of his game, it’s inevitable he’ll make a mistake or two under pressure, as we saw against the Buccaneers. The Vikings know how to capitalize off those mistakes, no matter how infrequent they are, very well. That’s the entire crux of their defensive scheme. Detroit has to be razor sharp coming out of the bye week. The young guards, Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge, will be on the spot. Like Goff, they’ve been impressive but not perfect.
As far as the Vikings offense goes, they are a variable. Minnesota’s offense has sputtered badly of late due to injuries and a lack of ability to string positive plays together. Their offensive line is healthier than it’s been in weeks, notably at tackle. McCarthy is an unknown commodity at the controls. He showed a lot of mobility and patience in college, and he’s got one of the best wideouts in the game in Justin Jefferson to throw at. Jefferson and running mate Jordan Addison are facing a Lions secondary that is still in injury-related flux, with playmaking safety Kerby Joseph still out.
Final thought and score prediction
Bottom line: A significantly lesser Lions defense beat a significantly better Vikings offense twice last season. With McCarthy making just his third career start and so many injuries still impacting the blocking in front of him, it’s tough to see Minnesota outscoring Detroit–even if the Lions’ own offense sputters a bit coming out of the bye. And I don’t expect that to happen, either.
Lions 33, Vikings 9